Ludwig Dorffmeister

Ludwig Dorffmeister beklagt die angespannte Lage auf dem deutschen Wohnungsmarkt: das Bauen ist insgesamt zu aufwendig und langwierig und kostet zu viel Geld, um das von der Bundesregierung gesetzte Ziel von jährlich 400.000 neuen Wohnungen zu erreichen. Der Ausweg könnte die Wiederaufnahme einer auskömmlichen Neubauförderung sein.

By 2026, Europe will have finished building only about 1.5 million housing units (down 13% on 2023). For Germany, that means an expected decline of 35%. This is evident from projections by the EUROCONSTRUCT forecasting network, of which the ifo Institute is a member. “Due in particular to the sharp rise in construction and financing costs, it’s often no longer possible to build new homes in Germany. Politicians haven’t yet made a decisive improvement to the policy framework,” says ifo construction expert Ludwig Dorffmeister. “The resulting decline in the number of permits doesn’t bode well for the coming years.”

By 2025, fewer dwellings will be completed in Europe. This is evident from calculations by the EUROCONSTRUCT forecasting network, of which the ifo Institute is a member. “In addition to the abrupt turnaround in interest rates and the hike in the cost of construction services, the general uncertainty about the medium-term development of real estate prices is causing widespread restraint among builders and prospective buyers,” says ifo construction expert Ludwig Dorffmeister.

The ifo Institute expects a drastic decline in residential construction in Germany. According to the Institute’s calculations, around 245,000 dwellings will be completed in new residential buildings in 2023, with another 210,000 to follow next year but only around 175,000 in 2025. Together with the other completions, only about 200,000 housing units will be built in 2025. The German government’s target, however, is 400,000. “The most important reason for the decline is a huge increase in the cost of financing and construction services. At the same time, the German government has drastically cut back on subsidies for new construction and once again tightened the standards for new construction at the beginning of 2023,” says ifo construction expert Ludwig Dorffmeister.

Construction in Europe will see weaker growth in the period 2023–2025. Residential construction in particular – in Italy and many other European countries – is facing considerable headwinds. This is evident from calculations by the EUROCONSTRUCT forecasting network, of which the ifo Institute is a member. “Resilience will be greatest in civil engineering,” says ifo expert Ludwig Dorffmeister. 

Europe’s construction sector has overcome its coronavirus-induced slump. This is evident from calculations by the EUROCONSTRUCT forecasting network, of which the ifo Institute is a member. “Construction activity will grow by 3.6 percent in 2022, after expanding by 5.6 percent in 2021 and contracting by 4.7 percent in 2020,” says ifo industry expert Ludwig Dorffmeister.

Between 2020 and 2022, construction in Europe will grow only by around 1 percent each year. “This is an appreciable slowdown following the 2016–2019 period, when the average increase in construction output in the 19 countries of the Euroconstruct network was still almost 3 percent a year,” says ifo Specialist for Construction and Real Estate Markets Ludwig Dorffmeister.

La construction en Europe ne croîtra que d'environ 1 % par an entre 2020 et 2022. « Ce taux représente un ralentissement sensible. Car de 2016 à 2019, la production du secteur de la construction progressait en moyenne de près de 3 % par an dans les 19 pays du groupe Euroconstruct », rappelle Ludwig Dorffmeister, expert de l'Institut ifo.

Der Wohnungsbau in Deutschland wird in den kommenden Jahren nur quälend langsam vorankommen. Diese Prognose des ifo Instituts für das Forschungsnetz Euroconstruct erwartet, dass in diesem Jahr die Fertigstellungen von 286.000 auf rund 300.000 steigen, im kommenden Jahr auf 305.000 und danach auf 315.000. „Die Zahl der Fertigstellungen schon für 2018 war enttäuschend. Es geht deutlich langsamer voran als wir gedacht haben“, sagt Ludwig Dorffmeister, der ifo-Bauexperte. Zum Vergleich: Für Frankreich werden in diesem Jahr 430.000 Wohnungen erwartet, obwohl das Land ein Fünftel weniger Einwohner hat als Deutschland.

05.04.2019

En Europe, le secteur de la construction continuera sa croissance jusqu'en 2021, bien qu'il s'agisse d'une croissance plus faible. L'année dernière, les mandats de construction ont encore augmenté de 2,8 pour cent et devraient progresser de 2 pour cent seulement cette année. Pour 2021, les prévisions actuelles du groupe de recherche Euroconstruct tablent sur une progression de 1,3 pour cent. «La conjoncture économique positive, l'environnement favorable des taux d'intérêts et l'augmentation des marges de manœuvre du secteur public comptent parmi les raisons principales de cet essor de la construction depuis 2014,» a déclaré Ludwig Dorffmeister, expert à l'ifo. «De plus, l'immigration et l'urbanisation croissante de nombreuses villes en Europe nécessitent non seulement un développement de l'offre locale de logements mais également des infrastructures routières.»

The European construction industry will grow until 2021, despite a slowdown in dynamics. While construction output in 2018 expanded by 2.8 percent, this year's increase is likely to amount to just 2 percent. For 2021, the latest forecast by the Euroconstruct research network assumes an increase of 1.3 percent. "The main reasons for the upturn in construction seen since 2014 include a good economic situation, a favourable interest rate environment and greater scope for action by the public sector," explains ifo expert Ludwig Dorffmeister. "On top of these factors, immigration and growing urbanisation in many places in Europe not only require an expansion of the local housing supply, but also call for more transport routes,” he adds.