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European construction industry to shrink this year in all three building sectorsSelected results of the Euroconstruct summer conference 2010

Erich Gluch, Ludwig Dorffmeister
ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2010

ifo Schnelldienst, 2010, 63, Nr. 14, 31-40

Construction output in Europe is set to decline this year for the third time in succession. According to the estimates of the 19 Euroconstruct institutes, of which the Ifo Institute is the German representative, the decline expected for 2010 will amount to about 4%. Accordingly, from 2008 to 2010, the extent of construction measures will fall by about 15% to ca. 1.26 trillion euros (in 2009 prices). Construction volume increased in only two Euroconstruct countries in 2009 - in Poland and Switzerland. In 2009 residential construction suffered considerable losses; non-residential construction shrank by 8.9%. Only in civil engineering was the level of 2008 maintained. For 2010 declines are expected in all three construction sectors. In residential construction building activity will only be reduced moderately. In contrast, the declines in non-residential construction will again be significant. For western Europe as a whole the outlook remains muted. Also in 2012, the construction measures implemented should still lie below 2009 levels. In the four eastern European member countries, however, rapid growth is expected to continue again as of 2011 at the latest.

JEL Classification: L740,L850

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ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, München, 2010