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European Construction Sector: Upturn Set to Lose Impetus Markedly by 2010 – Selected Results of the EUROCONSTRUCT Summer Conference 2018

Ludwig Dorffmeister
ifo Institut, München, 2018

ifo Schnelldienst, 2018, 71, Nr. 13, 61-68

The European construction industry experienced an upturn across the board in 2017. Construction output rose by almost 4% as a result, marking its third sharpest increase in the past 26 years. Although EUROCONSTRUCT network experts expect another marked increase of over 2½% this year, the pace of growth is expected to slow down clearly to just 1½% by the end of the decade. While the construction sector will lose impetus markedly from 2018 to 2020, the civil engineering sector will surge temporarily both this year and next. With construction measures expected to expand by 4½% respectively in both years, record growth rates are expected. High volumes of capital will be invested in road and rail networks in particular, as well as in energy infrastructure. In addition to the improvement in public finances, higher demand for investment in many places, as well as European structural funding will play a key role in this respect. Despite the fact that framework conditions remain very favourable until the end of the decade, construction demand in several countries can be expected to develop far more weakly than in recent years. In some places the upwards trend will soon grind to a halt. Construction activity is expected to decline in three countries in 2019 and in five member countries in 2020. These countries include Finland, Sweden, Slovenia, Hungary and Germany. In view of the market volume that has now been achieved and the fairly modest downturn forecast, however, there are no grounds for panic in these countries.

JEL Classification: L740

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ifo Institut, München, 2018