Economists will gather at the Ifo Institute from 18 to 19 November 2016 to discuss the role of geocoded data in economic research. How can geocoded data be integrated in econometric approaches and be used to better answering old questions. Matz Dahlberg, Ina Blind, both University of Uppsala, and Gustav Engström, Beijer Institute, will be responsible for the academic supervision of the event. Details

The October issue of the ifo-GfK-Konsumreport Wolfgang Nierhaus, Ifo Institute, focuses on the consumption forecast for 2016-2018. The outlook for private consumption from the income side looks favourable for the next two years. The monthly, German-language journal is a joint publication of the Ifo Institute and GfK Marktforschung, Nuremberg, in which the latest results of the GfK consumer climate report and the Ifo Business Survey are published and analysed. Details

The surprising election of Donald Trump as US President left many politicians in Europe reeling at the shock. In the latest Ifo Viewpoint Ifo President Donald Trump looks at the changes that Donald trump can be expected to make and how Europe should react to them. Details

Any trade war waged by the USA would backfire on the country. According to Ifo’s latest calculations, a trade war would have a significant negative impact on the USA. “For the USA, isolation would be accompanied by major losses in prosperity. If the USA were to impose import duties of 45 percent and non-tariff barriers of 15 percent on all trade partners, and the latter were to retaliate in kind, US economic output would fall by up to 9.3 percent. This scenario, as outlined by Donald Trump, would throw the USA into a state of autarky,” noted Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics. In such a scenario Germany could see its economic output decline by up to 19 billion euros, or 0.6 percent Details

The Center for Economic Studies (CES) has made Bengt Robert Holmström, Paul A. Samuelson Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), a "Distinguished CES Fellow". The latest Nobel prize winner in economics was made a Fellow for his outstanding work in the field of contract theory. The award ceremony will take place on 15 November 2016 at 6.00 p.m. in the Great Hall of the University of Munich. Following on from the ceremony, Holmström will give the first of three “Munich Lectures in Economics 2016”, which will also be livestreamed via the CESifo website. Details

Nov 10, 2016: The Ifo Index for the world economy improved, rising 4.5 index points to 90.5 points in the fourth quarter and returning to the level seen in the second quarter. Despite this improvement the figure remains around six index points below its long-term average. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation remained unfavourable, with no change since the second quarter. Expectations brightened somewhat and the world economy seems to be swinging back on track for a moderate recovery. According to experts‘ assessments, Donald Trump’s election as US President represents a major risk for the world economy. They assessed Hillary Clinton’s election, by contrast, as slightly positive. The survey was completed in October. Details

Nov 3, 2016: Economic sentiment in the euro area improved this quarter, but to markedly different degrees across member states. The Ifo index for the economic climate in the euro area rose from 111.6 points to 116.8 points in the fourth quarter. The current economic situation remains unchanged and the improved economic climate was entirely due to more positive expectations. The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue at a sluggish pace. Details

Oct 31, 2016: The Ifo Export Climate rose from 0.12 index points in August to 0.28 points in September. The climate mainly rose due to improved corporate and consumer confidence abroad. There was no change in price competitiveness compared to last month. Details

Oct 28, 2016: German companies had even fewer problems accessing bank credit this month than in September. Credit constraints for German trade and industry declined from 14.9 percent in September to 14.4 percent in October. This figure represents the share of companies reporting problems accessing bank credit. The financing environment for German firms remains very favourable as a result. Details

Oct 27, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in the eastern German Länder brightened once again in October. Eastern German survey participants were slightly more satisfied than last month. They also reported a more positive short-term business outlook. Details

Oct 27, 2016: German companies are planning to recruit more additional staff this month. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 110.7 points in October from 110.2 points last month, reaching its second highest level ever. Companies in nearly all branches are continuing to look for additional personnel. Details

Oct 26, 2016: German manufacturers are expecting a significant rise in the number of orders from abroad. Their export expectations rose from 8.8 balance points in September to 14.1 balance points in October, marking their sharpest upturn since February 2013. German exporters are increasingly benefiting from the brighter world economic situation. Details

Oct 25, 2016: In the service sector sentiment remained good and almost unchanged from last month. The business climate indicator edged downwards from 32.3 balance points in September to 32.1 balance points in October. Service providers’ assessments of the current business situation were slightly less favourable, but their short-term business expectations improved somewhat. Their willingness to recruit more staff remains high. Details

Oct 25, 2016: Sentiment in the German economy continued to improve this month. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 109.5 points in September to 110.5 points in October. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed far greater optimism about the months ahead. The upturn in the German economy is gathering impetus. Details

Oct 10, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate Index for trade and industry in the Free State of Saxony rose very sharply in September after three declines in succession. Assessments of the current business situation, which plunged in August, recovered this month. The outlook for the months ahead also improved considerably. In eastern Germany and the rest of the country as a whole the mood brightened too, although not to the same extent as in Saxony. Details

Growth with public investment and with public spending in R&D

CESifo, the Center of Public Economics at TU Dresden and the Ifo Institute for Economic Research Dresden will jointly organize a workshop on Political Economy. In the tradition of the previous workshops, the conference will take place in Saxony´s capital Dresden. The two-day workshop will serve as a forum to present current research results in political economy and will give researchers the opportunity to network. The keynote lectures will be delivered by Ragnar Torvik (NTNU Trondheim & CAMP) and Roland Hodler (SIAW-HSG at the University of St. Gallen). Details

Issues in optimal fiscal policy