Retailers in Germany fear the competition from online trading. Of those surveyed, 53 percent regard online trade as a “factor that reduces business”, 12 percent even consider it a “factor that damages business”. This is the result of a survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. For 22 percent of the retailers, online trading has no impact on their business. Details

German industry expects a slower increase in exports. The export expectations fell from 13.9 balance points in October to 6.9 points in November. The results of the US elections seem to have caused uncertainty among German exporters. Details

The Bologna reforms that introduced the Bachelor/Master system in German universities have not increased students’ national or international mobility or their participation in internships. Nevertheless, students are more satisfied with academic conditions. To some extent, the reforms have reduced the likelihood of students breaking off their studies. These are the findings of Bernhard Enzi and Benedikt Siegler, both of the Ifo Center for the Economics of Education, in a recent Ifo Working Paper using data from the DZHW Panel Study of School Leavers with a Higher Education Entrance Qualification. Details

The Dresden branch of the Ifo Institute will host the 10th Political Economics workshop from 25 to 26 November 2016. This event will be jointly organised by CESifo, the Center for Public Economics of the Technical University of Dresden and the Dresden branch of the Ifo Institute. The keynote lectures will be delivered by Ragnar Torvik, NTNU Trondheim & CAMP, and Roland Hodler, SIAW-HSG at the University of St. Gallen. Christian Lessmann, Technical University of Braunschweig, and Gunther Markwardt, Technical University of Dresden, are responsible for the academic supervision of the workshop. Details

The global economy has been growing at a considerably slower pace than previously. Economic momentum has fallen short of expectations. A discussion on overcoming growth weakness is contained in ifo Schnelldienst 22/2016 with these participants: Holger Zemanek, Federal Ministry of Finance, Jörg Krämer and Marco Wagner, Commerzbank AG, Thieß Petersen, Bertelsmann Foundation, Tom Krebs, University of Mannheim, and Martin Scheffel, University of Cologne, Thomas Mayer, Storch Research Institute, as well as Steffen Elstner and Christoph M. Schmidt, German Council of Economic Experts. Details

Nov 25, 2016: German industry expects a slower increase in exports. The export expectations fell from 13.9 balance points in October to 6.9 points in November. The results of the US elections seem to have caused uncertainty among German exporters. Details

Nov 24, 2016: Confidence in the German economy continues to be good. The Ifo Business Climate Index remained unchanged at 110.4 points (seasonal adjustment correction) in November. The firms were once again more satisfied with their current business situation, but with regard to the coming months they are somewhat less optimistic. The economic upturn in Germany remains intact. The German economy seems to be unfazed by the election of Donald Trump as US President. Details

Nov 24, 2016: In the service sector, business confidence has improved. The indicator rose from 32.3 balance points in October to 34.8 points in November. The companies gave significantly more favourable assessments of the current situation. Their expectations for the coming months, on the other hand, have been downgraded slightly. The firms plan further increases in the number of employees. Details

Nov 10, 2016: The Ifo Index for the world economy improved, rising 4.5 index points to 90.5 points in the fourth quarter and returning to the level seen in the second quarter. Despite this improvement the figure remains around six index points below its long-term average. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation remained unfavourable, with no change since the second quarter. Expectations brightened somewhat and the world economy seems to be swinging back on track for a moderate recovery. According to experts‘ assessments, Donald Trump’s election as US President represents a major risk for the world economy. They assessed Hillary Clinton’s election, by contrast, as slightly positive. The survey was completed in October. Details

Nov 3, 2016: Economic sentiment in the euro area improved this quarter, but to markedly different degrees across member states. The Ifo index for the economic climate in the euro area rose from 111.6 points to 116.8 points in the fourth quarter. The current economic situation remains unchanged and the improved economic climate was entirely due to more positive expectations. The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue at a sluggish pace. Details

Oct 31, 2016: The Ifo Export Climate rose from 0.12 index points in August to 0.28 points in September. The climate mainly rose due to improved corporate and consumer confidence abroad. There was no change in price competitiveness compared to last month. Details

Oct 28, 2016: German companies had even fewer problems accessing bank credit this month than in September. Credit constraints for German trade and industry declined from 14.9 percent in September to 14.4 percent in October. This figure represents the share of companies reporting problems accessing bank credit. The financing environment for German firms remains very favourable as a result. Details

Oct 27, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in the eastern German Länder brightened once again in October. Eastern German survey participants were slightly more satisfied than last month. They also reported a more positive short-term business outlook. Details

Oct 27, 2016: German companies are planning to recruit more additional staff this month. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 110.7 points in October from 110.2 points last month, reaching its second highest level ever. Companies in nearly all branches are continuing to look for additional personnel. Details

Oct 26, 2016: German manufacturers are expecting a significant rise in the number of orders from abroad. Their export expectations rose from 8.8 balance points in September to 14.1 balance points in October, marking their sharpest upturn since February 2013. German exporters are increasingly benefiting from the brighter world economic situation. Details

Issues in optimal fiscal policy

Introduction to Credence Goods and Expert Services – Economic Theory and Experiments

On December 02-03, 2016, the Business Cycle Analysis and Survey Department of Ifo in association with Rüdiger Bachmann (University of Notre Dame) and Eric Sims (University of Notre Dame) will organize a conference in Munich on “Macroeconomics and Survey Data”. The conference is intended to discuss ongoing research on survey and micro data and its role and usage in macroeconomics. Papers, theoretical, empirical and policy oriented, are actively solicited on issues like (the list is not exhaustive): methodology of business surveys, uncertainty modelling, survey data and the business cycle, transmission of cyclical fluctuations, forecasting performance of survey data in business-cycle research, usage of micro-data in macroeconomics. Details