12th ifo Conference on Macroeconomics and Survey Data

Programm

• Thursday, 3 February

  • Presenting authors are denoted in capital letters | Timing: 20 min presentation and 10 min discussion 

    13:35 – 13:45	Welcome and Introduction
    	Session 1a  Labor I: Workers and Firms  Chair: Timo Wollmershäuser
    13:45 - 14:15	Short-time work and precautionary savings BRITTA GEHRKE (University of Rostock)
    14:15 - 14:45	Wage Posting and Wage Bargaining: Evidence from Linked Survey-Administrative Data INGRID HÄGELE (UC Berkeley)
    14:45 - 15:15	How do biased labor market expectations affect labor market outcomes? ALMUT BALLEER (RWTH Aachen University)
    	Session 1b Information Frictions    Chair: Benjamin Born
    13:45 - 14:15	How economic expectations react to news: Evidence from German firms Benjamin Born, Zeno Enders, MANUEL MENKHOFF (ifo Institut), Gernot Müller, and Knut Niemann
    14:15 - 14:45	Biased Surveys ROSEN VALCHEV (Boston College)
    14:45 - 15:15	Heterogeneous information, subjective model beliefs, and the time-varying transmission of shocks ALISTAIR MACAULAY (University of Oxford)
    15:15 - 15:30	Break
    	Session 2a  Economic Policy Chair: Maik Wolters
    15:30 - 16:00	A Temporary VAT Cut as Unconventional Fiscal Policy RÜDIGER BACHMANN (University of Notre Dame)
    16:00 - 16:30	Household Spending and Fiscal Support During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Insights from a New Consumer Survey GEOFF KENNY (ECB) and Dimitris Georgarakos
    16:30 - 17:00	Human Frictions in the Transmission of Economic Policy Francesco D'Acunto, Daniel Hoang, Maritta Paloviita, and MICHAEL WEBER (University of Chicago)
    	Session 2b Inflation Expectations Chair: Benjamin Born
    15:30 - 16:00	Firms' Inflation Expectations: New Evidence from France Frederique Savignac, ERWAN GAUTIER (Banque de France), Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Olivier Coibion
    16:00 - 16:30	Medium- vs. short-term consumer inflation expectations: evidence from a new euro area survey MARITTA PALOVIITA (Bank of Finland) and Ewa Stanislawska
    16:30 - 17:00	The Hidden Heterogeneity of Inflation and Interest Rate Expectations: The Role of Preferences LENA DRÄGER (Leibniz University of Hannover), Michael J. Lamla, and Damjan Pfajfar
    17:00 - 17:15	Break
    	Session 3 Survey Experiments on Consumer Behavior Chair: Andreas Peichl
    17:15 - 17:45	Heterogeneous Spending and Saving Behavior: What Can We Learn from Survey Experiments? STEFANIE STANTCHEVA (Harvard University) and Pierfrancesco Mei
    17:45 - 18:15	The Effects of Forward Guidance: Theory with Measured Expectations MIRCO WIEDERHOLT (LMU Munich), Christopher Roth, and Johannes Wohlfart
    18:15 - 18:30	Break
    	Session 4a Information Acquisition Chair: Michael Weber
    18:30 - 19:00	Information Acquisition and Belief Formation: Evidence from Panels of Firms and Households CHRISTOPHER ROTH (University of Warwick), Andreas Peichl, Sebastian Link, and Johannes Wohlfart
    19:00 - 19:30	Selection in Information Acquisition and Monetary Non-Neutrality HASSAN AFROUZI (Columbia University) and Choongryul Yang
    	Session 4b Long-run trends Chair: Klaus Wohlrabe
    18:30 - 19:00	100 Years of Rising Corporate Concentration Spencer Kwon, Yueran Ma, and KASPAR ZIMMERMANN (Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE)
    19:00 - 19:30	Measuring TFP: The Role of Profits, Adjustment Costs, and Capacity Utilization Diego Comin, Javier Quintana, TOM SCHMITZ (Bocconi University), and Antonella Trigari
    19:30 - 19:45	Break
    	Keynote Lecture I Chair: Maik Wolters
    19:45 – 20:45	The Longlasting Eects of Crises and Other Past Experiences on Expectations and Economic Decisions ULRIKE MALMENDIER (UC Berkeley)

• Friday, 4 February

  • 	Session 5a  Labor II: Matching  Chair: Almut Balleer
    13:45 - 14:15	Gender-Specific Application Behavior, Matching and the Residual Gender Wage Gap CHRISTIAN MERKL (FAU Nuremberg) and Benjamin Lochner
    14:15 - 14:45	Matching Through Search Channels LEO KAAS (Goethe University Frankfurt), Carlos Carrillo-Tudela, and Benjamin Lochner
    14:45 - 15:15	Labor Market Dynamics: The Role of Matching Efficiency and Quits ANJA BAUER (Institute for Employment Research)
    	Session 5b Consumer and Investor Expectations    Chair: Benjamin Born
    13:45 - 14:15	Beliefs About the Stock Market and Investment Choices: Evidence from a Field Experiment CHRISTINE LAUDENBACH (University of Bonn)
    14:15 - 14:45	Beliefs and Portfolios: Causal Evidence JOHANNES BEUTEL (Deutsche Bundesbank) and Michael Weber
    14:45 - 15:15	News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact Alexander Dietrich, Keith Kuester, Gernot Mueller, and RAPHAEL SCHOENLE (Brandeis University)
    15:15 - 15:30	Break
    	Session 6a  Fiscal Policy Chair: Maik Wolters
    15:30 - 16:00	How do Firm Decision-Makers Form Preferences About Fiscal Policy? Laura Arnemann, Florian Buhlmann, Philipp Dörrenberg, Fabian Eble, Christopher Karlsson, Davud Rostam-Afschar, and JOHANNES VOGET (University of Mannheim)
    16:00 - 16:30	State Tax and Transfer Progressivity and the Household Consumption Response to Fiscal Stimulus JOHANNES FLECK (European University Institute)
    	Session 6b Labor III: Savings Chair: Rüdiger Bachmann
    15:30 - 16:00	Job stability, earnings dynamics, and life-cycle savings MORITZ KUHN (University of Bonn) and Gasper Ploj
    16:00 - 16:30	Optimal Progressive Pension Systems in a LifeCycle Model with Heterogeneity in Job Stability LEANNE NAM (University of Bonn)
    16:30 - 16:45	Break
    	Session 7 Labor IV: Macro Perspectives Chair: Andreas Peichl
    16:45 - 17:15	Capital Investment and Labor Demand JUAN CARLOS SUAREZ SERRATO (Duke University), Dan Garrett, Eric Ohrn, Kevin Roberts, and E. Mark Curtis
    17:15 - 17:45	Investment Revisions after Tax Hikes Andreas Peichl, Sebastian Link, Manuel Menkhoff, and PAUL SCHÜLE (ifo Institute)
    17:45 - 18:15	Worker Beliefs About Rents and Outside Options BENJAMIN SCHOEFER (UC Berkeley)
    18:15 - 18:30	Break
    	Session 8a Firms Chair: Timo Wollmershäuser
    18:30 - 19:00	Output Distortions and the Choice of Legal Form of Organization Katarzyna Bilicka and SEPIDEH RAEI (Utah State University)
    19:00 - 19:30	Firm-Level Uncertainty and the Transmission of Forward Guidance to Investment NIKLAS KRONER (UT Austin)
    	Session 8b Labor V: Couples Chair: Klaus Wohlrabe
    18:30 - 19:00	Assortative Mating and Income Dynamics of Couples CHRISTOPHER BUSCH (LMU Munich), Rocio Madera, and Fane Groes
    19:00 - 19:30	Own-Wage and Spousal Labor Supply Elasticities: Evidence from the 2015 Swiss Franc Appreciation Kevin Kloiber, Sarah Lein, Andreas Peichl, and PETER ZORN (LMU Munich)
    19:30 - 19:45	Break
    	Keynote Lecture II Chair: Benjamin Born
    19:45 – 20:45	Optimal Bank Reserve Remuneration and Capital Control Policy STEPHANIE SCHMITT-GROHÉ (joint work with Chun-che chi and Martin Uribe)