Clockwork Germany

More than Germany’s bagging the world football cup, it was its thrashing of Brazil in the latter’s home turf by 7 to 1 that focused minds on the German traits that made such a stunning display of prowess possible. And, incidentally, it also rekindled attention to the fact that Germany seems to be topping just about every I-want-to-be-there league at the moment.

You can be thus forgiven for feeling tempted to equate the performance of Germany’s football side with that of its economy and its industry. Just as its players saw off every other contender by resorting to a remarkable combination of discipline, fitness, patience and sheer doggedness, Germany’s economy seems unassailable, impervious to the euro crisis and to those pesky flashpoints blazing in Ukraine, Syria, Gaza and Iraq. Its economy is purring along nicely, with very low unemployment, sound finances and a booming export business. It has become Europe’s economic top dog, just as it has become football’s top dog. And all, again, by dint of discipline, fitness, patience and sheer doggedness.

So, is a Teutonic Golden Era in the offing? Not likely. Just as football supremacy is an ephemeral thing (witness Bayern Munich’s plunge from champion-of-everything in 2013 to a 0-4 thrashing by Real Madrid this year in the semi-finals), Germany’s current economic miracle will probably prove short-lived.

Let’s start with a look at the “human resource”. The football side is young, with many years ahead to hone their game further; it is multicultural, with a sprinkling of Khediras, Boatengs and Özils spicing its line-up, and is financially sound. Germany, on the contrary, is getting long in the tooth, could do with quite a bit more multiculturalism, and its finances look pretty shaky down the road.

Take Germany’s baby boomers. Now in their 50s, they are blissfully unaware that they are enjoying a historically very unusual situation: they hardly bothered to have children in their prime, but they themselves had plenty of siblings. So, they have had lots of help in financing their parents and grandparents, while at the same time precious few children to support: no big burdens at either end of the age scale. They can really afford to splash out on those marvellous German cars and on sybaritic holidays.

But when they finally go into retirement, in about 15 years, the missing offspring will not be there to support them. While in 2000 each person of working age had to finance about one-fourth of a retiree, by now the rate is close to one-third, and in about 20 years it is going to be one-half. In other words, every two people of working age will have to shoulder one retiree, who on top of everything lives much longer. So there goes your fitness.

What about discipline, patience and doggedness? Germans have been very level-headed, generally speaking, in restraining their wage demands in order to make their country more competitive, in particular after the 15 years of low economic growth and high unemployment in the wake of German reunification and the introduction of the euro. To one degree or another, they put their country’s needs before their own, waiting patiently for times to get better, while at the same time working doggedly to improve their lot.

But now a big chunk of the voters are going to be retirees, who will see to it that no legislation passes that can curtail their financial security in retirement. So much for discipline.

The young will not take this sitting down, so a generational clash of a new kind may emerge, with the young braying for the burden to be lifted. Patience, in this context, takes on a rather sinister new twist.

(True, there are plans afloat to increase the inheritance tax, to impose a wealth tax and, in general, to make the oldies part with some of their cash. That will surely help, but will probably not improve the mood much.)

So the only thing remaining is doggedness. Germans are nothing if not dogged. Thus, chances are, they will see it through. After all, they have a knack for pulling off snazzy goals just when you thought everything was lost.