The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in Germany improved once again in June. The brightening was solely the result of the firms’ expectations – the pessimism of the survey participants with regard to the six-month business outlook has again weakened. Their dissatisfaction with the current business situation is just as strong as it was in May. The survey results confirm that the German economy is gradually stabilising.
In manufacturing the business climate indicator rose. The survey participants have appraised their current business situation somewhat less unfavourably than in the previous month. Nevertheless, the manufacturers are largely dissatisfied with their present situation. However, a further worsening of business in the coming six months is no longer expected quite so frequently as in the previous month. The decline in export business, according to the survey responses, will weaken somewhat. The firms’ employment plans are less negative than they were in the previous month but are still clearly aimed at personnel reductions.
In wholesaling and in retailing the business climate has further improved. In both distribution sectors the brightening of the business climate is the result of firms’ clearly less negative business expectations. However, wholesalers and retailers have given more unfavourable assessments of their current business situation than in May.
The business climate in construction remains nearly stable. The current business situation has been given somewhat worse appraisals by the firms. However, with regard to the business outlook they are less reserved than they were last month.
Hans-Werner Sinn President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
Ifo Business Climate Brightens Somewhat Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the June 2009 Ifo Business Survey (22 Jun 2009) Document Size: ca. 100 kb
The Ifo Business Climate for Germany (from January 1991) The table is in Excel-format for facilitating further processing by the user. Long time-series of the Business Climate for German trade and industry and its two components, the business situation and the expectations Document Size: ca. 40 kb
The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactorily” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2000.
To find out how the Ifo Business Climate Index is calculated and its forecasting quality please click here.
One week after the Ifo Business Climate Index is released, the Ifo Institute publishes, in the periodical "ifo Konjunkturperspektiven", the results of the most recent Ifo Business Survey in east and west Germany in all details with texts and graphics as well as the business situation for the EU as a whole and for Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and Italy in figures. To inform non-German speakers of the survey results of the Ifo Institute, we present a short overview of the contents of each issue in English.
Consult the ifo Konjunkturperspektiven overview page for the current issue.
24 July 2009 10:30 AM CEST 26 Aug 2009 10:30 AM CEST 24 Sept 2009 10:30 AM CEST
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