Press releases in the past quarter

May 15, 2013: The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator continued to rise, even if only slightly. Both assessments of the current economic situation and the six-month economic outlook improved slightly compared to the previous quarter. There are a growing number of signs that the world economy is stabilising. Details

May 14, 2013: Last summer, the financier George Soros urged Germany to agree to the establishment of the European Stability Mechanism, calling on the country to “lead or leave”. Now he says that Germany should exit the euro if it continues to block the introduction of Eurobonds. Soros is playing with fire. Leaving the eurozone is precisely what the newly founded “Alternative for Germany” party, which draws support from a wide swath of society, is demanding. Details

May 10, 2013: Poland’s economic development is the focus of the latest CESifo Forum. From the beginning of its transformation process the formerly socialist country has recorded robust economic growth, leading to a rise in living standards. At the same time, the relatively young democracy has continued to face a number of economic challenges. Details

May 8, 2013: Germany's roads are crumbling, according to the Cologne Institute for Economic Research, and it is right: 21 per cent of federal roads and nine percent of motorways in Germany urgently require repairs, but there is no money available to make them. Doing the full extent of the work needed to address the problem would double today's annual repair costs for years to come. Details

May 8, 2013: The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area remains at a low level. Assessments of the current economic situation are slightly less favourable than in the last survey. Expectations for the six-month economic outlook improved only slightly. An economic recovery has not yet started. Details

May 3, 2013: The CESifo Group Munich and the BMW-Stiftung Herbert Quandt, in partnership with The Times, The Wall Street Journal and Handelsblatt, will hold the 12th Munich Economic Summit "Relaunching Europe" on the 16 and 17 May 2013 at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel in Munich. Details

May 3, 2013: Germany is currently experiencing a massive wave of immigration that is reminiscent of the time after the Fall of the Iron Curtain. In 2012 a net total of around 410,000 people came to Germany (after subtracting the number of emigrants). This was around the same number as in 1993 and a good 50 per cent more than in 2011. Germany was an emigrant country just a short time ago. Now people are coming here in their droves. Details

Apr 30, 2013: Credit constraints for German trade and industry edged downwards by 0.1 percentage points compared to March. Around a fifth of the companies surveyed reported a restrictive credit policy on the part of banks. Despite recent developments in the euro crisis, there have been no significant changes in the favourable financial environment of German companies. Details

Apr 29, 2013: Child benefit and publicly-subsidised child care represent key pillars of family policy in Germany. As part of an overall evaluation of central marriage and family-related benefits conducted on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Family, Senior Citizens, Women and Youths and the Ministry for Finance, the Ifo Institute investigated the implications of both family policy measures on families. Details

Apr 29, 2013: The Ifo Business Climate for Eastern German trade and industry clouded over considerably in April. Eastern German survey participants assessed their current business situation considerably less optimistically than last month. They also expressed greater caution about their six-month business outlook. After a strong start to the year, the Eastern German economy is losing momentum slightly. Details

Apr 24, 2013: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell in April. Although the majority of companies assessed their current business situation as good, they were far more cautious than last month. Their expectations regarding future business developments were also lower. The German economy is taking a breather. Details

Apr 18, 2013: An upwards tendency re-emerged in the German economy in spring 2013. The situation in the financial markets has eased thanks to subsiding uncertainty regarding the future of the European Monetary Union. The headwind in the world economy has also tailed off somewhat. The institutes expect gross domestic product in Germany to increase by 0.8% this year (68%-projection interval: 0.1% to 1.5%) and by 1.9% next year. The number of unemployed should continue to fall to an annual average of 2.9 million this year and 2.7 million in 2014. The inflation rate is expected to drop to 1.7% this year and edge up to 2.0% next year on the back of rising capacity utilisation. The public budget will be almost balanced in 2013 and should show a surplus of 0.5% in relation to gross domestic product in 2014 thanks to more favourable economic conditions. It is now time to readopt a longer-term approach to economic policy. Although structural adjustment processes implemented in the crisis-afflicted countries have started to deal with institutional problems in the euro area, they are far from resolved. The German public budget also faces massive long-term burdens related to demographic factors. Details

Apr 15, 2013: Child care is one of the most important instruments of family policy, and the spotlight in the political and public debate has fallen on subsidised child care for under three year-olds in recent years. Details

Apr 9, 2013: Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute and Professor of Economics and Finance at the University of Munich, is now a member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts. Details

Apr 5, 2013: In Q4 2012, activity in the Eurozone contracted by 0.6% (-0.1% in the previous quarter). The decrease in exports put a drag on GDP growth while domestic demand remained on a negative trend. However, in the first quarter of 2013, the business climate has slightly improved. Details

Mar 30, 2013: The Committee on the Economics of Education of the Verein für Socialpolitik unanimously adopted in its recent meeting the following open letter to the President of the Standing Conference of Education Ministers. The Verein für Socialpolitik is the scientific society of the German-speaking economists. The Chairman of the Committee on the Economics of Education is Prof. Dr. Ludger Woessmann, head of the Ifo Institute's Human Capital and Innovation Department and professor of economics of education at the University of Munich. Details

Mar 28, 2013: Credit constraints for German trade and industry continued to fall by 0.8 percentage points to 20.2% in March, marking their lowest value since June 2012. Around a fifth of survey participants reported a restrictive credit policy on the part of banks. The financing conditions for German companies remain very good. Details

Mar 27, 2013: With the progressive integration of the global economy, the degree of international division of labour related to structural adjustments in the world’s individual economies is also growing. Against this background, how has Germany’s international trade developed in recent years? The Ifo Institute has now ascertained that foreign added value as a share of German exports has increased significantly in recent years. Inputs from China and Central and Eastern Europe in particular are continuing to gain importance for German exports. Details

Mar 27, 2013: After a sharp increase in the previous month, the Ifo Business Climate Index for German trade and industry fell slightly in March. Assessments of business expectations for the six months ahead were somewhat less favourable overall. Eastern German survey participants assessed their current business situation equally as favourably as in February. The Eastern German economy is currently benefiting from a stronger orientation towards the domestic market and is defying the difficult situation in the international environment. Details

Mar 22, 2013: After rising sharply last month, the Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade edged downwards in March. Companies were slightly less positive about their future business outlook than in February, but assessed their current business situation almost as positively as last month. The German economy remains on track in a challenging environment thanks to strong domestic demand. Details

Mar 14, 2013: External trade statistics are of central importance to economic policy. Among other things, its foreign trade contribution shows how a country is positioned compared to its trade partners. But how much do official statistics really tell us these days? In the context of a research project the Ifo Institute compared external trade statistics with figures on actual value added. The study finds that German surpluses with the GIPS states (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) fell, while the US deficit with China also grew smaller. The study casts a new light on the competitiveness of individual countries, with consequences for economic policy. Details

Mar 14, 2013: The business climate improved slightly at the beginning of the first quarter of 2013, according to the Ifo Institute’s survey of freelance architects. This is due to more optimistic assessments of their six-month business outlook by survey participants, although they expressed greater caution with regard to their current business situation. Details

Mar 13, 2013: The scientific community has gained an attractive access to research data at the Ifo Institute. The presidents of the Ifo Institute and the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing are signing a cooperation agreement today that aims to bundle the competences of both institutes at one location and to create a further opportunity for researchers to conduct solid empirical research at the Ifo Institute. The core aspect of their cooperation is the set-up of a branch of the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing at the Ifo Institute, which will feature workplaces for guest researchers that are to be transferred from the federal state statistical offices to Ifo. This should make it easier for researchers working empirically to immediately access both the Ifo Institute’s databases and the official microdata of the German federal statistics offices. Details

Mar 5, 2013: The Eurozone is now in its sixth year of crisis – and of efforts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the international community to end it. Policymakers are becoming ensnared in a creeping interventionism that, as British Prime Minister David Cameron has put it, may alter the Eurozone “beyond recognition” and violates Europe’s basic economic and political rules. Details

Feb 28, 2013: What would be the impact of a far-reaching free trade agreement between the USA and the EU on growth, prosperity and employment? On behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology, the Ifo Institute has conducted a study on the dimensions and impact of a free trade agreement that would lift customs duties on goods and remove non-tariff trade barriers. The study finds that such an agreement would not only promote trade, but would also lead to greater prosperity and higher levels of employment in both the USA and the EU. Details

Feb 28, 2013: Credit constraints for German trade and industry increased by 0.7 percentage points in February, returning to the level of December 2012. 21% of the companies surveyed reported a restrictive credit policy on the part of banks. Despite this increase, the financing conditions for German companies remain highly beneficial. Details

Feb 27, 2013: The Ifo Business Climate Indicator for trade and industry in the Eastern German Länder increased by over four percentage points in February and thus outperformed Germany as a whole. This represents its biggest increase since summer 2010. The Eastern German companies surveyed are much more satisfied with their current business situation than at the beginning of this year. As far as business expectations are concerned, the signs also turned positive. Overall, survey participants expressed optimism with regard to their future business developments. Eastern Germany’s economy is increasingly gaining momentum. Details

Feb 25, 2013: • World GDP to recover slightly to 3.3 percent in 2013 • US GDP to weaken to 1.6 percent due to fiscal uncertainty • European Union and euro area GDP to stagnate this year • Recommendations on how to correct imbalances and improve labour markets Details

Feb 22, 2013: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose significantly by over three points in February. This represents its greatest increase since July 2010. Satisfaction with the current business situation continued to grow. Survey participants also expressed greater optimism about their future business perspectives. The German economy is regaining momentum. Details

Feb 19, 2013: Der Spiegel-Artikel "Zement für die Union" zitiert aus einem noch unveröffentlichten Gutachten der European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo (EEAG), einem von der CESifo-Gruppe organisierten europäischen Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der europäischen Wirtschaftsentwicklung. Dabei ist es zu einer fehlerhaften Berichterstattung gekommen, die den Tenor des Berichtes umdreht. Auch ein wörtliches Zitat ist verkürzt und dadurch sinnentstellt worden. Details

Feb 15, 2013: Largely ignored by public opinion, the European Commission has drafted a new directive on bank resolution which creates the legal basis for future bank bailouts in the EU. While paying lip service to the principle of shareholder liability and creditor burden-sharing, the current draft falls woefully short of protecting European taxpayers and might cost them hundreds of billions of euros. Further lobbying by banks is likely to make things only worse. Details

Feb 14, 2013: Residential construction shrank in Europe in 2012, and the “EUROCONSTRUCT” European research and consultancy network also forecasts negative growth of around one percent for 2013. However, the mood in the sector is confident. Construction experts expect an upturn in residential construction activity in 2014 and 2015 in the EUROCONSTRUCT area. In Germany and Norway in particular construction demand should rise significantly. Details

Feb 14, 2013: While several European countries have introduced school systems to lengthen the school career in recent years, Bavaria bucked this trend in 2000 by opting for the across-the-board introduction of six-grade secondary schooling. Instead of tracking as of grade sixth, low and middle school students are now tracked as of grade four. A study recently published by the Ifo Institute shows that the reform has resulted in a decline in student performance at both a low and a middle level. This, in turn, led to an increase in the number of weak performers, especially at the middle level. Details

Feb 13, 2013: The Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator rose after two successive decreases. The increase in the indicator was mainly driven by significantly more positive assessments of the six-month economic outlook, while assessments of the current economic situation improved only slightly. After six months of stagnation, the prospects for the world economy seem to be brightening. Details

Feb 7, 2013: David Cameron’s announcement that he is going to let the British people vote on the issue of EU membership via a referendum has been greeted with derision by many politicians in Brussels and Paris, as well as a few in Berlin. But this issue cannot be waved away quite that easily. Great Britain remains Europe’s most internationally well-known and influential country. Cameron’s decision will and must change Europe. Details

Feb 6, 2013: Structural problems have emerged with European Monetary Union and accumulated over a number of years, ultimately leading to bail-out measures that subvert the basic principles of the Maastricht Treaty. This raises the issue of structural reforms of the monetary union, including the creation of a banking union. In the latest issue of the CESifo Forum well-known economists air their views on this concept. Details

Feb 6, 2013: The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area rose in the first quarter of 2013 after two successive decreases. Assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated slightly. Assessments of the six-month economic outlook, on the other hand, were largely positive and are now at the highest level for nearly two years. A silver lining to the current economic situation is emerging. Details