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Press releases in the past quarter

  1. Fuest Welcomes ECB Decision

    Dec 8, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has welcomed the European Central Bank's decision to scale back its purchases of government bonds as of March. “This is a step in the right direction. It would have been even better if the ECB had decided to make bigger cuts to the volume of its purchases, reducing them month by month,” he added. Details

  2. Bundesbank TARGET2 Credit Hits All-Time High

    Dec 8, 2016: The Bundesbank’s balances within the Eurosystem (TARGET2 balances) hit an all-time high of 754 billion euros in November. Last month alone they rose by 46 billion euros. "The sharp increase was primarily due to growing capital flight from Italy and repurchasing operations by the European Central Bank (ECB),” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest in Frankfurt. "The German federal government should intervene and prompt the ECB to take measures to stem this irregular and excessive use of TARGET2 balances aimed at regrouping assets within the Eurozone," added Fuest. Details

  3. German Companies Less Satisfied with Graduate Recruits

    Dec 7, 2016: German companies are less satisfied with their newly-recruited graduates than a decade ago. According to the Randstad Ifo Personnel Managers Survey, 32 percent of survey participants were less satisfied with graduate education, while only 2 percent were more satisfied and 43 percent reported no change in their satisfaction level. Details

  4. Fuest: ECB Should Phase Out Bond Purchases

    Dec 6, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to scale back its bond purchases as of April 2017. "The ECB’s argument that the inflation rate in the euro area is too low will no longer be applicable in 2017” explained Fuest. Details

  5. Ifo Institute Favours Expansion of Customs Union with Turkey

    Dec 2, 2016: The Ifo Institute has expressed its support for a customs union between the EU and Turkey. “A deepening of the customs union would help to stabilise the current situation in the Turkish economy and could also constitute a political bridge,” said Erdal Yalcin, Deputy Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics, which has produced a study on the topic for the Bertelsmann Foundation. According to the study, expanding the customs union would lead to an increase in Turkish economic output of 1.84 percent. Agricultural exports from Turkey to the EU could increase by 95 percent, while exports of services may soar by as much as 430 percent. Details

  6. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    Credit Constraints Increase Slightly

    Nov 29, 2016: German companies continue to have little difficulty in obtaining bank loans. The credit constraint indicator for trade and industry rose slightly from 14.4 percent in October to 14.6 percent in November. This is the share of firms reporting restrictive lending by the banks. Financing conditions continue to be very good. Details

  7. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    German Companies Still Seeking New Staff

    Nov 29, 2016: German firms intend to hire additional staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 111.1 points in November, having stood at 110.7 points in the previous month. The number of jobs in Germany is on the rise. Details

  8. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Virtually Unchanged

    Nov 28, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in eastern Germany trended sideways in November. Although the survey participants assessed their current business situation somewhat less favourably than in the previous month, they look forward to the coming months with slightly increased optimism. Details

  9. Economists Panel for November 2016: German Economists Expect Trump to Trigger US Economic Upturn

    Nov 28, 2016: Criticism of Debt and Trade Policy The vast majority of the 130 German economics professors surveyed expects an economic upturn thanks to the investments announced by US President-elect Donald Trump. 80 percent of the economists surveyed by the Ifo Institute expect moderate growth stimuli, while around 75 percent expects an upturn in employment if Trump follows through on an-nouncements of higher investments in infrastructure. Around one in seven economists even expects the economy to pick up sharply. At the same time, however, economists are extremely critical of Trump’s taxation and trade plans, according to the Economists Panel conducted in cooperation with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “Curbing trade and contracting new debts would certainly be a bitter pill to swallow,” said Niklas Potrafke, Director of the Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. Details

  10. Ifo Dresden: German Pension Decisions are “Window Dressing”

    Nov 25, 2016: The Ifo pension expert Joachim Ragnitz has called the German coalition resolutions on pension reform “window dressing”. “They bypass the extension of working years as the only way to stabilise pension levels and contribution rates”, commented the deputy head of the ifo Dresden branch on Friday. “A concept for preventing old age poverty is also not detectable.” Details

  11. Brick-and-mortar retailers assess online competition negatively

    Nov 25, 2016: Retailers in Germany fear the competition from online trading. Of those surveyed, 53 percent regard online trade as a “factor that reduces business”, 12 percent even consider it a “factor that damages business”. This is the result of a survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. For 22 percent of the retailers, online trading has no impact on their business, and only 14 percent see a positive effect. Details

  12. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    After Trump’s Election: Export Expectations of German Industry Clearly Dampened

    Nov 25, 2016: German industry expects a slower increase in exports. The export expectations fell from 13.9 balance points in October to 6.9 points in November. The results of the US elections seem to have caused uncertainty among German exporters. Details

  13. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the November 2016 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate after Trump Election Unchanged

    Nov 24, 2016: Confidence in the German economy continues to be good. The Ifo Business Climate Index remained unchanged at 110.4 points (seasonal adjustment correction) in November. The firms were once again more satisfied with their current business situation, but with regard to the coming months they are somewhat less optimistic. The economic upturn in Germany remains intact. The German economy seems to be unfazed by the election of Donald Trump as US President. Details

  14. Ifo Institute: Waging a Trade War Would Backfire on the USA

    Nov 15, 2016: Any trade war waged by the USA would backfire on the country. According to Ifo’s latest calculations, a trade war would have a significant negative impact on the USA. “For the USA, isolation would be accompanied by major losses in prosperity. If the USA were to impose import duties of 45 percent and non-tariff barriers of 15 percent on all trade partners, and the latter were to retaliate in kind, US economic output would fall by up to 9.3 percent. This scenario, as outlined by Donald Trump, would throw the USA into a state of autarky,” noted Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics. Details

  15. Ifo: German Consumption Grows by 0.4 percent in Q3 and Q4 2016 respectively

    Nov 11, 2016: Consumption by private households will grow by 0.4 percent in the third and fourth quarter of 2016 respectively, according to the latest calculations by the Ifo Institute, published on Thursday in the ifo Schnelldienst 21/2016. Details

  16. Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2016

    Ifo World Economic Climate Brightens Again

    Nov 10, 2016: The Ifo Index for the world economy improved, rising 4.5 index points to 90.5 points in the fourth quarter and returning to the level seen in the second quarter. Despite this improvement the figure remains around six index points below its long-term average. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation remained unfavourable, with no change since the second quarter. Expectations brightened somewhat and the world economy seems to be swinging back on track for a moderate recovery. According to experts’ assessments, Donald Trump’s election as US President represents a major risk for the world economy. They assessed Hillary Clinton’s election, by contrast, as slightly positive. The survey was completed in October. Details

  17. Fuest: Trump’s Victory May Strike Blow to Economic Development

    Nov 9, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest believes that Donald Trump’s election victory may strike a blow to economic development. "If Trump goes ahead and erects trade barriers as planned, the damages will be huge. In Germany 1.5 million jobs depend on US business and the USA is Germany’s most important trade partner,” noted Fuest on Wednesday in Munich. Details

  18. Ifo Institute: US Economic Isolation May Negatively Impact Germany

    Nov 7, 2016: If the USA erects barriers to economic exchange in the wake of the forthcoming presidential elections, this could negatively impact Germany, according to the Ifo Institute. “A substantial deterioration in the US economic climate would affect around 1.5 million jobs in Germany and almost 200 billion euros in direct investment by German companies in the USA. The automotive, machinery and pharmaceutical branches in particular may suffer,” warned Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics, on Monday in Munich. Details

  19. Fuest: German Government Should Use Solid Financial Position to Introduce Tax Indexing

    Nov 4, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest reiterated his support for tax indexing after the German government’s official tax revenue estimate confirmed solid revenue growth. Details

  20. Munich Center for Economic Studies (CES) honours Economist Bengt Robert Holmström

    Nov 4, 2016: The CES Council has elected new Nobel prize winner Bengt Robert Holmström, Paul A. Samuelson Professor of Economics, from the MIT as this year’s Distinguished CES Fellow. Details

  21. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2016

    Ifo Economic Climate in the Euro Area Remains Heterogeneous

    Nov 3, 2016: Economic sentiment in the euro area improved this quarter, but to markedly different degrees across member states. The Ifo index for the economic climate in the euro area rose from 111.6 points to 116.8 points in the fourth quarter. The current economic situation remains unchanged and the improved economic climate was entirely due to more positive expectations. The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue at a sluggish pace. Details

  22. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for October 2016

    Credit Constraints Decline Slightly

    Oct 28, 2016: German companies had even fewer problems accessing bank credit this month than in September. Credit constraints for German trade and industry declined from 14.9 percent in September to 14.4 percent in October. This figure represents the share of companies reporting problems accessing bank credit. The financing environment for German firms remains very favourable as a result. Details

  23. Ifo Institute Sceptical About Accelerated Expansion of High-Speed Internet in Germany

    Oct 27, 2016: The Ifo Institute is sceptical about the accelerated expansion of high-speed internet in Germany. “All of the information at our disposal indicates that consumers and companies currently make little use of very high-speed internet connections,” said Oliver Falck, Director of the Ifo Center for Industrial Organisation and New Technologies. Details

  24. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2016

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Rises

    Oct 27, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in the eastern German Länder brightened once again in October. Eastern German survey participants were slightly more satisfied than last month. They also reported a more positive short-term business outlook. Details

  25. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2016

    Hiring by German Companies Continues Unabated

    Oct 27, 2016: German companies are planning to recruit more additional staff this month. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 110.7 points in October from 110.2 points last month, reaching its second highest level ever. Companies in nearly all branches are continuing to look for additional personnel. Details

  26. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2016

    German Manufacturers’ Export Expectations Continue to Climb

    Oct 26, 2016: German manufacturers are expecting a significant rise in the number of orders from abroad. Their export expectations rose from 8.8 balance points in September to 14.1 balance points in October, marking their sharpest upturn since February 2013. German exporters are increasingly benefiting from the brighter world economic situation. Details

  27. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the October 2016 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Continues to Improve

    Oct 25, 2016: Sentiment in the German economy continued to improve this month. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 109.5 points in September to 110.5 points in October. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed far greater optimism about the months ahead. The upturn in the German economy is gathering impetus. Details

  28. New Ifo Study: A Fund Based Stabilization Mechanism for the EEG surcharge

    Oct 14, 2016: The German Renewable Energy Act (EEG) surcharge could be frozen at 6.5 cent per kilowatt hour if financing gaps could be covered by borrowing until 2028. After 2028 surplus revenues from the frozen EEG surcharge could be used to fully repay the loan by 2038. These are the results of a report by the Ifo Institute on behalf of the Bavarian State Ministry for Economic Affairs, the Media, Energy and Technology released today. “Freezing the EEG surcharge is conceivable, but whether politicians want to smooth over the levy and shift its burden to the future is up to them,” said Karen Pittel, Director of the Ifo Center for Energy, Climate and Exhaustible Resources. Details

  29. Economists Panel for October 2016: Most German Economists Favour Low Inheritance Tax with No Exceptions

    Oct 14, 2016: The majority of German economists surveyed in a recent panel favour a low inheritance tax rate without any exceptions. These are the results of the latest Economists Panel survey jointly conducted by the Ifo Institute and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. An impressive majority of 60.9 percent favours a low rate, while only 39.1 percent supports the present tax system with its rates of up to 50 percent and exceptions. “With inheritance tax there is a dilemma: testators should be free to dispose of their wealth however they choose, and family companies should not be destroyed either. At the same time, however, the imperative of fairly distributing the tax burden also speaks in favour of taxing large inherited wealth,” says Niklas Potrafke, Director of the Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. Details

  30. Ifo Foreign Trade Expert Felbermayr Welcomes German Constitutional Court Decision

    Oct 13, 2016: The Ifo international economics expert Gabriel Felbermayr has welcomed the German Constitutional Court’s decision on CETA. “It is a good decision. CETA is a modern agreement that could potentially lead to a 0.19 percent increase in Germany’s gross domestic product, meaning that the average German citizen would have around 70 euros more in his /her pocket per year,” said the Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics on Thursday. The positive effects that would result from an almost complete abolition of customs duties, a simplification of export-related bureaucracy, the opening up of the Canadian procurement markets at all state levels and improved cooperation in regulatory matters. Details

  31. New Ifo Study: When Vocational Education Turns into a Drawback

    Oct 13, 2016: At the beginning of the career, individuals with a job-specific vocational education have better employment chances than those who receive a general education. But if demand for their occupation-specific skills fades over time due to technical and structural change, they are at a higher risk of losing their jobs later in life. These are the results of a new study by Franziska Hampf and Ludger Woessmann of the Ifo Center for the Economics of Education published on Thursday. Details

  32. Fuest Favours Automatic Tax Cuts to Offset Bracket Creep

    Oct 12, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest is in favour of automatic tax cuts in Germany. “There should be tax indexing, an automatic yearly tax cut to compensate for bracket creep,” he said on Wednesday. Details

  33. Eurozone Expected to See Modest Economic Upturn

    Oct 11, 2016: The Eurozone’s economy is expected to see a modest economic upturn in the short term. Its economy is expected to grow by 0.4 percent in the last quarter of 2016 and in the first quarter of 2017 respectively, following growth of 0.3 percent in the second and third quarters of 2016, according to forecasts released on Tuesday by the Ifo Institute (Munich), INSEE (Paris) and ISTAT (Rome). This marginal improvement will primarily be driven by slightly stronger external demand and a stabilisation in private consumption growth rates. Consumption will benefit from a gradual improvement in the labour market and robust growth in real disposable income levels, caused by sustained low inflation. Investments will also recover slightly in the second half of 2016. Details

  34. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for September 2016

    Credit Constraints Decline Slightly

    Sep 30, 2016: Credit constraints for German trade and industry declined from 15.0 percent last month to 14.9 percent in September. This figure represents the share of companies reporting problems accessing bank credit. This marked the first drop in credit constraints after three consecutive increases. German companies continue to experience no difficulties in accessing bank credit. Details

  35. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2016: German economy on track – economic policy needs to be realigned

    Sep 29, 2016: The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.9 percent this year and by 1.4 percent in 2017. The growth rate in 2018 will be 1.6 percent. Overall economic capacity utilisation will be slightly higher than the long-term average over the forecasting period. Details

  36. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for September 2016

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Rises

    Sep 29, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate for the Eastern German Länder brightened significantly in September compared to the previous month. Assessments of the current business situation and business expectations improved considerably, after deteriorating considerably in August. Overall, the business climate index for eastern Germany has been fluctuating at around the same level for a year. Details

  37. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for September 2016

    German Firms Continue Recruitment Drive

    Sep 29, 2016: German companies are planning to recruit a higher number of employees. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 110.1 index points in September from 108.6 points last month, marking its third consecutive upturn. Companies in nearly all branches are looking to hire additional staff. Details

  38. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for September 2016

    German Manufacturers’ Export Expectations Climb

    Sep 27, 2016: German manufacturers expect additional stimuli from abroad. Their export expectations soared from 4.8 balance points in August to 8.6 balance points in September, reaching their highest level since December 2015. The Brexit vote only appears to have had a short-lived shock impact on German exporters. Details

  39. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the September 2016 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Improves Markedly

    Sep 26, 2016: Sentiment in the German economy improved considerably this month. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose from 106.3 points (seasonally-adjusted) in August to 109.5 points in September, reaching its highest level since May 2014. Companies are clearly more optimistic about the months ahead. They are also more satisfied with their current business situation. The German economy is expecting a golden autumn. Details

  40. Fuest Criticises Inheritance Tax Reform in Germany

    Sep 22, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has criticised the inheritance tax reform in Germany as an "employment programme for tax advisors". Details

  41. Business Climate for German Architects Hits Record High

    Sep 16, 2016: The business climate for freelance architects has hit a new record high. The climate is now as good as it was shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, reported the Ifo Institute on Friday in the latest issue of its Ifo Schnelldienst, which features a survey of freelance architects conducted at the beginning of the third quarter. 54 percent of the architects surveyed assessed their own business situation as good, while only 11 percent described it as poor. As far as their six-month business outlook is concerned, 18 percent of the architects surveyed even expect it to improve further, while only 9 percent think that the situation will deteriorate. 57 percent of survey participants signed new orders and the average order backlog is 6.8 months. In residential construction in particular architects are currently experiencing a boom. Orders for single-family and duplex houses are triple the figure seen ten years ago when orders plunged to a record low. New orders for the planning of apartment buildings were also 10 percent higher than last quarter. Details

  42. German Firms Increasingly Favour Home Office

    Sep 16, 2016: A growing number of German companies are offering their employees the opportunity to work from home occasionally. This share rose from 30 percent of companies in 2012 to 39 percent this year, according to the results of the Ifo-Randstad Personnel Managers Survey published on Friday. Details

  43. Economists Panel for September 2016: German Economists Want Clinton Instead of Trump

    Sep 15, 2016: If German economists could elect the new US President, an overwhelming majority would vote for Hillary Clinton. In the September Economists Panel, a survey jointly conducted by the Ifo Institute and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung and published on Thursday, the former US foreign minister received 74.48 percent of votes, while Trump won just 0.7 percent. Laurence Kotlikoff, the economics professor from Boston, came second with 15.17 percent of votes. Even largely unknown candidates like Gary Johnson (3.45 percent) and Jill Stein (2.07 percent) scored better than Trump. Details

  44. Germans Sceptical About Immigrants’ Education Level – Teachers Particularly Featured in the Ifo Education Survey

    Sep 14, 2016: Three quarters of Germans assess the average education level of refugees as low. Accordingly, the majority (53 percent versus 33 percent) also does not believe that refugees will help to reduce the shortage of skilled workers in the German economy. These are results of the Ifo Education Survey, a representative poll in Germany which was presented at the Leibniz Association in Berlin on Wednesday. Majorities are in favour of publicly funded obligatory language courses for refugees (75 percent in favour, 18 percent against), extending compulsory schooling to the age of 21 years (58:26) and a two-year right of residence upon completion of an apprenticeship (50:37). Details

  45. Germany Set to Become World Champion in Capital Exports in 2016

    Sep 7, 2016: Germany is on track to overtake China as world champion in capital exports this year, according to calculations by the Ifo Institute. Germany’s current account surplus is forecast at 310 billion US dollars (goods, services and transfers) in 2016, versus 285 billion US dollars in 2015. China is expected to post a surplus of around 260 billion US dollars this year, with Japan following in third place with a surplus of around 170 billion US dollars. Low oil prices transformed Saudi Arabia’s large surpluses prior to 2014 into a deficit in 2015, and is expected to do so again in 2016. Details

  46. Fuest Praises Schäuble’s Plans to Cut Taxes

    Sep 6, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest welcomes the planned tax cuts announced by Germany’s Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble and would like to see him go a little further. Details

  47. New Book: "The Black June" by Hans-Werner Sinn

    Sep 6, 2016: The Brexit vote, the decision of the German Constitutional Court on the bond purchases of the European Central Bank and the refugee crisis have incited former Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn to write a new book entitled “Der Schwarze Juni” (The Black June) which will be released in October by Herder in Germany. Details

Press contact

Harald Schultz

Ifo Institute
Press, Publications, Conferences
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1218
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1267
Email: schultz @ ifo.de
Website


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