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Press releases in the past quarter

  1. Free trade with Russia Could Bring Benefits for Germany and EU

    Feb 20, 2017: A free trade area for the European Union, Russia and other states would have economic advantages for all concerned, according to model-based calculations by the Ifo Institute. According to Ifo’s research results, a comprehensive agreement between the EU and the Eurasian Economic Community could lead to a 0.2 percent increase in real per capita income in the EU, corresponding to an annual EUR 91 upturn in per capita income. For Russia this increase could be as high as three percent or EUR 235 per year. “These income gains stem from the fact that the economic structures on all sides are highly complementary,” explained Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics speaking at a conference held at the Ifo Institute entitled: “Common Economic Space from Lisbon to Vladivostok.” Details

  2. German Economists Sceptical About Brexit Timetable

    Feb 16, 2017: German economists are sceptical about the forthcoming Brexit negotiations, according to the results of the latest Economists Panel conducted by the Ifo Institute and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. 70 percent of survey participants believes that the British government’s two-year timetable for negotiating a comprehensive free trade agreement with the European Union is unrealistic. Only 21 percent of the German 125 economics professors surveyed believes that a deal can be negotiated within the next two years, while the remainder is unsure. Details

  3. Ifo President Fuest Demands Far-Reaching Reform of Eurozone

    Feb 14, 2017: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has called for a comprehensive reform of the Eurozone. “The Eurozone requires urgent reforms. Procedures and competencies now need to be changed if lasting stability in the currency union is to be achieved,” he said on Tuesday in Berlin at the presentation of his new book “The Odysseus Complex” (“Der Odysseus-Komplex” published in German), co-authored by Fuest and finance expert Johannes Becker from Muenster. Details

  4. Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2017

    Ifo World Economic Climate Continues to Brighten

    Feb 13, 2017: The Ifo World Economic climate continued to improve this quarter. The indicator rose to +2.6 balance points from -1.2 points previously. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation were no longer quite as unfavourable as last quarter. Expectations also brightened somewhat, pointing to a moderate recovery in the world economy. Details

  5. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2017

    Ifo Economic Climate in the Euro Area Brightens Markedly

    Feb 6, 2017: Economic sentiment in the euro area continued to firm this quarter. The Ifo Economic Climate improved to 17.2 balance points in the first quarter from 8.2 balance points previously. Expectations are far more positive than last quarter. The experts surveyed also assessed their current economic situation more favourably. The economic recovery is gathering impetus. Details

  6. Territorial Reforms: Dubious Benefits, High Political Costs

    Jan 31, 2017: Territorial reforms negatively impact democratic participation and do not tend to make public administration more efficient. These are the findings of a new overview study by Sebastian Blesse, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim and Felix Roesel, Dresden Branch of the Ifo Institute. Details

  7. Germany Emerges as Capital Export World Champion in 2016 - USA Comes Out Top in Capital Imports

    Jan 30, 2017: Germany once again emerged as capital export world champion in 2016, according to preliminary calculations by the Ifo Institute. Germany’s current account surplus is expected to have totalled 297 billion US dollars (268 billion euros) in 2016. China ranks second with an anticipated current account surplus of 245 billion US dollars. The USA, by contrast, is expected to show the biggest capital imports in the world, with a deficit of 478 billion US dollars for 2016. Current account surpluses (goods, services, interest rates, wages and transfer payments) mean capital exports, while deficits represent capital imports. Details

  8. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2017

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Declines

    Jan 30, 2017: The seasonally-adjusted Ifo Business Climate Index for trade and industry in Eastern Germany declined slightly at the start of the year. Although business was somewhat better than in December, expectations for the first half of 2017 clouded over markedly. After several months of growing optimism, Eastern German companies were clearly less positive about the future in January. Details

  9. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2017

    German Exporters More Optimistic Despite Trump

    Jan 27, 2017: German exporters started the year in an optimistic mood. Their export expectations rose from 8.2 balance points in December to 12.0 balance points in January. The German economy currently seems unfazed by the protectionist rhetoric of the new US President. Details

  10. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2017

    German Firms Less Eager to Recruit

    Jan 27, 2017: German firms are still planning to recruit additional staff, but on a smaller scale than in previous months. The Ifo Employment Barometer dropped to 110.7 points in January from 111.8 points in December. Employment growth in Germany is nevertheless expected to continue in 2017. Details

  11. European Construction Continues to Recover

    Jan 26, 2017: Construction in Europe grew by 2 percent in 2016. Annual growth in the sector is expected to continue at around this rate for the next three years until the end of 2019, according to calculations by the EUROCONSTRUCT research network, of which the Ifo Institute is a founding member. The strongest stimuli will come from new residential construction, which grew by a good 7 percent in 2016. Details

  12. Results of the January 2017 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index for the Service Sector Falls

    Jan 26, 2017: Service providers’ high spirits waned again in January. The Business Climate Index for the Service Sector fell to 109.3 points this month from 110.8 points in December. Service providers were slightly less satisfied with their current business situation and are less optimistic about the months ahead. Many service providers are nevertheless planning to recruit additional staff. Prices are expected to rise in many segments. Details

  13. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the January 2017 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Falls

    Jan 25, 2017: Sentiment among German managers weakened in January. The Ifo Business Climate Index fell to 109.8 points this month from 111.0 points in December. Companies expressed greater satisfaction with their current business situation, but are less optimistic about their six-month business outlook. The German economy made a less confident start to the year. Details

  14. Ifo Credit Constraints

    Jan 23, 2017: The Credit Constraints survey will cease to be published in its present form at the beginning of 2017. Scientific analyses have shown that the formulation of the questions underpinning the survey was not optimal. Details

  15. Ifo President Fuest Regrets ECB Decision

    Jan 19, 2017: Ifo President Clemens Fuest regrets the European Central Bank’s decision not to reduce its monthly government bond purchases to below 60 billion euros as of April. Details

  16. Fuest Favours Free Trade with Great Britain

    Jan 17, 2017: Europe and Great Britain should come to a cooperative solution that minimises the economic and political damage done by Brexit on both sides, according to Ifo President Clemens Fuest. Details

  17. Fuest: Seek Dialogue with Trump

    Jan 16, 2017: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has called upon Germany and Europe to engage in a dialogue with the future US President Donald Trump. “We should seek a dialogue with Trump to positively influence the further development of his economic plans,” Fuest said on Monday in Munich. Details

  18. Ifo President Clemens Fuest Awarded Honorary Doctorate

    Jan 11, 2017: The Karlsruhe Institute of Technology has awarded Ifo President Clemens Fuest an honorary doctorate. Fuest received the award for his services to public finance and for putting academic insights into economic policy practice on Wednesday in Karlsruhe. Details

  19. Eurozone Economy Stages Gradual Recovery

    Jan 11, 2017: The Eurozone economy is recovering gradually. Growth of 0.4 percent can be expected in both of the first quarters of 2017 respectively, after 0.4 percent growth in the fourth quarter of 2016, according to forecasts by the Ifo Institute (Munich), INSEE (Paris) and ISTAT (Rome). This development will be driven by private and public consumption. Despite an increase in inflation, the disposable income of private households stands to benefit from rising wages and improving labour market conditions. Investments will also recover slightly in the first half of 2017. Details

  20. Geschäftsklima für Architekten leicht abgekühlt

    Dec 22, 2016: Das Geschäftsklima bei den freischaffenden Architekten in Deutschland hat sich geringfügig abgekühlt. Es ist aber immer noch ausgesprochen gut. Zuvor war es fünf Quartale in Folge deutlich gestiegen. Nunmehr bezeichnet die Hälfte der Befragten ihre Lage als gut, zuvor waren es 54 Prozent. Unzufrieden zeigten sich 14 Prozent, zuvor war es 11 Prozent. Auch bei den Aussichten für die kommenden sechs Monate schleicht sich ein wenig Skepsis ein. Von einer eher günstigen Entwicklung gehen 14 Prozent aus, zuvor waren es 18 Prozent. Eher ungünstiger könnte die Entwicklung für rund 10 Prozent werden, das ist aber kaum verändert gegenüber dem Vorquartal. Details

  21. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2016

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Rises

    Dec 22, 2016: The seasonally-adjusted Ifo Business Climate for the eastern German Länder brightened slightly again towards the end of the year. Thanks to a marginal upturn in business, expectations rose for the fourth month in succession. The eastern German economy will gain impetus in the New Year. Details

  22. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for December 2016

    Ifo Credit Constraints Edge Downwards

    Dec 22, 2016: It has become slightly easier for German companies to access bank loans. Credit constraints for German trade and industry fell slightly from 14.6 percent in November to 14.5 percent in December. This is the share of companies reporting restrictive lending by banks. Financing conditions were very favourable in 2016 and are expected to remain so in 2017. Details

  23. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2016

    Companies Seek to Recruit Extra Staff

    Dec 22, 2016: German companies plan to recruit additional staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 111.8 points in December from 111.1 points last month, marking a new historic record since the inclusion of service providers in the survey in 2002. The number of jobs continues to rise unabated and there is no end to the employment boom in sight. Details

  24. Ifo Institute: Avoiding a Trade War with China

    Dec 20, 2016: The Ifo Institute has warned against waging a trade war with China. “To avoid any such war, the EU should abolish the legal classification of countries as market or non-market economies, which impacts the level of punitive tariffs imposed on unfairly traded goods,” says Erdal Yalcin, Deputy Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics. At the same time, the EU should retain the option to make cost adjustments to excessively cheap exports from China on a case-specific basis, like it does with exports from Russia. “In China overcapacities in individual branches like the steel and chemicals industry are due to direct or indirect state intervention. Case-specific cost adjustment is urgently required to enable these industries in the EU to defend their interests,” explains Yalcin. Details

  25. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2016

    Falling Euro Raises German Exporters’ Hopes

    Dec 20, 2016: German manufacturers hope that exports will rise. Their export expectations rose from 6.7 balance points in November to 8.0 balance points in December. Expectations were fuelled by the US Fed’s announcement of an interest rate increase, which pushed up the US dollar exchange rate. German exporters hope that their foreign business will also improve in 2017. Details

  26. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the December 2016 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Improves in the Run-Up to Christmas

    Dec 19, 2016: The German economy is in a festive mood. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose in December to 111.0 points from 110.4 points in November. Assessments of the current business situation improved, reaching their highest level since February 2012. The business outlook for the first half of 2017 is also slightly more optimistic. The German economy is making a strong finish to the year. Details

  27. German Economists Oppose Italy Exiting Eurozone

    Dec 19, 2016: A large majority of German economists opposes Italy exiting the Eurozone: 61 percent are against an exit, versus 29 percent in favour. These are the latest results of the Economists Panel jointly conducted by the Ifo Institute and the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Details

  28. Ifo Institute Upwardly Revises Forecast for 2017 to 1.5 Percent Growth

    Dec 16, 2016: The Ifo Institute has upwardly revised its economic forecast for 2017 slightly. It now expects economic output to grow by 1.5 percent, after jointly forecasting just 1.4 percent growth with other institutes in autumn. “All of the signs indicate that the fourth quarter of 2016 will be stronger than previously anticipated, and that this dynamic will continue into the New Year,” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest on Friday in Berlin. The Ifo Institute confirmed the Joint Economic Forecast of 1.9 percent growth for 2016. “The change in pace from 2016 to 2017 is merely due to a lower number of working days,” added Fuest. The Ifo Institute also upwardly revised its forecast for 2018 somewhat from 1.6 to 1.7 percent. Details

  29. Fuest Welcomes Interest Rate Hike in USA

    Dec 14, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest welcomes the interest rate hike implemented by the US Federal Reserve. “This is a step in the right direction and should be followed up by further measures. The inflation rate in the USA is rising, and it is important that timely monetary policy measures are taken to counterbalance it,” he noted. Details

  30. Fuest Welcomes ECB Decision

    Dec 8, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has welcomed the European Central Bank's decision to scale back its purchases of government bonds as of March. “This is a step in the right direction. It would have been even better if the ECB had decided to make bigger cuts to the volume of its purchases, reducing them month by month,” he added. Details

  31. Bundesbank TARGET2 Credit Hits All-Time High

    Dec 8, 2016: The Bundesbank’s balances within the Eurosystem (TARGET2 balances) hit an all-time high of 754 billion euros in November. Last month alone they rose by 46 billion euros. "The sharp increase was primarily due to growing capital flight from Italy and repurchasing operations by the European Central Bank (ECB),” said Ifo President Clemens Fuest in Frankfurt. "The German federal government should intervene and prompt the ECB to take measures to stem this irregular and excessive use of TARGET2 balances aimed at regrouping assets within the Eurozone," added Fuest. Details

  32. German Companies Less Satisfied with Graduate Recruits

    Dec 7, 2016: German companies are less satisfied with their newly-recruited graduates than a decade ago. According to the Randstad Ifo Personnel Managers Survey, 32 percent of survey participants were less satisfied with graduate education, while only 2 percent were more satisfied and 43 percent reported no change in their satisfaction level. Details

  33. Fuest: ECB Should Phase Out Bond Purchases

    Dec 6, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest has called on the European Central Bank (ECB) to scale back its bond purchases as of April 2017. "The ECB’s argument that the inflation rate in the euro area is too low will no longer be applicable in 2017” explained Fuest. Details

  34. Ifo Institute Favours Expansion of Customs Union with Turkey

    Dec 2, 2016: The Ifo Institute has expressed its support for a customs union between the EU and Turkey. “A deepening of the customs union would help to stabilise the current situation in the Turkish economy and could also constitute a political bridge,” said Erdal Yalcin, Deputy Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics, which has produced a study on the topic for the Bertelsmann Foundation. According to the study, expanding the customs union would lead to an increase in Turkish economic output of 1.84 percent. Agricultural exports from Turkey to the EU could increase by 95 percent, while exports of services may soar by as much as 430 percent. Details

  35. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    Credit Constraints Increase Slightly

    Nov 29, 2016: German companies continue to have little difficulty in obtaining bank loans. The credit constraint indicator for trade and industry rose slightly from 14.4 percent in October to 14.6 percent in November. This is the share of firms reporting restrictive lending by the banks. Financing conditions continue to be very good. Details

  36. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    German Companies Still Seeking New Staff

    Nov 29, 2016: German firms intend to hire additional staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 111.1 points in November, having stood at 110.7 points in the previous month. The number of jobs in Germany is on the rise. Details

  37. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Virtually Unchanged

    Nov 28, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade in eastern Germany trended sideways in November. Although the survey participants assessed their current business situation somewhat less favourably than in the previous month, they look forward to the coming months with slightly increased optimism. Details

  38. Economists Panel for November 2016: German Economists Expect Trump to Trigger US Economic Upturn

    Nov 28, 2016: Criticism of Debt and Trade Policy The vast majority of the 130 German economics professors surveyed expects an economic upturn thanks to the investments announced by US President-elect Donald Trump. 80 percent of the economists surveyed by the Ifo Institute expect moderate growth stimuli, while around 75 percent expects an upturn in employment if Trump follows through on an-nouncements of higher investments in infrastructure. Around one in seven economists even expects the economy to pick up sharply. At the same time, however, economists are extremely critical of Trump’s taxation and trade plans, according to the Economists Panel conducted in cooperation with the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “Curbing trade and contracting new debts would certainly be a bitter pill to swallow,” said Niklas Potrafke, Director of the Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. Details

  39. Ifo Dresden: German Pension Decisions are “Window Dressing”

    Nov 25, 2016: The Ifo pension expert Joachim Ragnitz has called the German coalition resolutions on pension reform “window dressing”. “They bypass the extension of working years as the only way to stabilise pension levels and contribution rates”, commented the deputy head of the ifo Dresden branch on Friday. “A concept for preventing old age poverty is also not detectable.” Details

  40. Brick-and-mortar retailers assess online competition negatively

    Nov 25, 2016: Retailers in Germany fear the competition from online trading. Of those surveyed, 53 percent regard online trade as a “factor that reduces business”, 12 percent even consider it a “factor that damages business”. This is the result of a survey conducted by the Ifo Institute. For 22 percent of the retailers, online trading has no impact on their business, and only 14 percent see a positive effect. Details

  41. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2016

    After Trump’s Election: Export Expectations of German Industry Clearly Dampened

    Nov 25, 2016: German industry expects a slower increase in exports. The export expectations fell from 13.9 balance points in October to 6.9 points in November. The results of the US elections seem to have caused uncertainty among German exporters. Details

  42. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the November 2016 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate after Trump Election Unchanged

    Nov 24, 2016: Confidence in the German economy continues to be good. The Ifo Business Climate Index remained unchanged at 110.4 points (seasonal adjustment correction) in November. The firms were once again more satisfied with their current business situation, but with regard to the coming months they are somewhat less optimistic. The economic upturn in Germany remains intact. The German economy seems to be unfazed by the election of Donald Trump as US President. Details

  43. Ifo Institute: Waging a Trade War Would Backfire on the USA

    Nov 15, 2016: Any trade war waged by the USA would backfire on the country. According to Ifo’s latest calculations, a trade war would have a significant negative impact on the USA. “For the USA, isolation would be accompanied by major losses in prosperity. If the USA were to impose import duties of 45 percent and non-tariff barriers of 15 percent on all trade partners, and the latter were to retaliate in kind, US economic output would fall by up to 9.3 percent. This scenario, as outlined by Donald Trump, would throw the USA into a state of autarky,” noted Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics. Details

  44. Ifo: German Consumption Grows by 0.4 percent in Q3 and Q4 2016 respectively

    Nov 11, 2016: Consumption by private households will grow by 0.4 percent in the third and fourth quarter of 2016 respectively, according to the latest calculations by the Ifo Institute, published on Thursday in the ifo Schnelldienst 21/2016. Details

  45. Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2016

    Ifo World Economic Climate Brightens Again

    Nov 10, 2016: The Ifo Index for the world economy improved, rising 4.5 index points to 90.5 points in the fourth quarter and returning to the level seen in the second quarter. Despite this improvement the figure remains around six index points below its long-term average. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation remained unfavourable, with no change since the second quarter. Expectations brightened somewhat and the world economy seems to be swinging back on track for a moderate recovery. According to experts’ assessments, Donald Trump’s election as US President represents a major risk for the world economy. They assessed Hillary Clinton’s election, by contrast, as slightly positive. The survey was completed in October. Details

  46. Fuest: Trump’s Victory May Strike Blow to Economic Development

    Nov 9, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest believes that Donald Trump’s election victory may strike a blow to economic development. "If Trump goes ahead and erects trade barriers as planned, the damages will be huge. In Germany 1.5 million jobs depend on US business and the USA is Germany’s most important trade partner,” noted Fuest on Wednesday in Munich. Details

  47. Ifo Institute: US Economic Isolation May Negatively Impact Germany

    Nov 7, 2016: If the USA erects barriers to economic exchange in the wake of the forthcoming presidential elections, this could negatively impact Germany, according to the Ifo Institute. “A substantial deterioration in the US economic climate would affect around 1.5 million jobs in Germany and almost 200 billion euros in direct investment by German companies in the USA. The automotive, machinery and pharmaceutical branches in particular may suffer,” warned Gabriel Felbermayr, Director of the Ifo Center for International Economics, on Monday in Munich. Details

  48. Fuest: German Government Should Use Solid Financial Position to Introduce Tax Indexing

    Nov 4, 2016: Ifo President Clemens Fuest reiterated his support for tax indexing after the German government’s official tax revenue estimate confirmed solid revenue growth. Details

  49. Munich Center for Economic Studies (CES) honours Economist Bengt Robert Holmström

    Nov 4, 2016: The CES Council has elected new Nobel prize winner Bengt Robert Holmström, Paul A. Samuelson Professor of Economics, from the MIT as this year’s Distinguished CES Fellow. Details

  50. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2016

    Ifo Economic Climate in the Euro Area Remains Heterogeneous

    Nov 3, 2016: Economic sentiment in the euro area improved this quarter, but to markedly different degrees across member states. The Ifo index for the economic climate in the euro area rose from 111.6 points to 116.8 points in the fourth quarter. The current economic situation remains unchanged and the improved economic climate was entirely due to more positive expectations. The economic recovery in the euro area is expected to continue at a sluggish pace. Details

Press contact

Harald Schultz

Ifo Institute
Press, Publications, Conferences
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1218
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1267
Email: schultz @ ifo.de
Website


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