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Press releases in the past quarter

  1. The Moderate Recovery Continues

    Jul 4, 2014: The Eurozone growth is expected to recover in Q2 2014 with GDP increasing by +0.3% (after +0.2% in the previous quarter). Growth rates are forecasted to remain at this level in Q3 and Q4. The recovery is expected to be broad based across sectors and countries. Details

  2. Economic Developments Remain Strong - Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2014/2015

    Jul 3, 2014: The economy in Eastern Germany (including Berlin) and Saxony picked up significantly at the beginning of the year; and this upswing will gather impetus over the forecasting period. Eastern German GDP is expected to rise sharply hitting 1.8 percent in 2014 and 2.0 percent in 2015. “Investors and producers are slightly more pessimistic due to the geopolitical unrest in Ukraine and Iraq”, commented Robert Lehmann, a researcher at the Dresden branch of the Ifo Institute on 3 July. “All of the data nevertheless point to an upturn in both years,” he added. Details

  3. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for June 2014

    Financing Conditions in Germany Remain Very Good

    Jun 30, 2014: German companies continue to enjoy very easy access to bank loans. After falling to a historical low in May, credit constraints for German industry rose slightly to 18.3 percent in June from 17.4 percent last month. Financing conditions for German business were already excellent prior to the base rate drop by the ECB and remain so. Details

  4. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for June 2014

    Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Improves

    Jun 27, 2014: Contrary to developments in Germany, the Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern German trade and industry rose slightly in June to 110.1 index points from 109.9 points in May. Eastern German companies assessed their current business situation as more favourable than last month. They were also less pessimistic about future business developments. The Eastern German economy is bracing itself against the effects of the crisis in the Ukraine and in Iraq. Details

  5. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for June 2014

    German Companies More Sceptical About Recruiting

    Jun 27, 2014: German companies have become more sceptical about recruiting, but are still looking for additional staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer for German industry, including the service sector, dropped to 106.1 index points in June from 106.9 points in the previous month. The increase in employment consequently continued to slow down. Companies, however, are still willing to recruit staff, especially in the service sector. Details

  6. Ifo Institute Upwardly Revises Economic Forecast

    Jun 26, 2014: The Ifo Institute has revised its economic forecast upward. Germany can now expect 2.0 percent growth this year and as much as 2.2 percent next year. Researchers had previously only reckoned with 1.9 percent growth in 2014. “The upturn is strong and gathering impetus”, according to the interim Director of Ifo’s Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys Timo Wollmershäuser. “This revision is based on the assumption that the conflict in the Ukraine does not escalate and that oil prices do not soar as a result of fighting in Iraq.” Under this assumption the Institute expects unemployment to drop from 6.9 percent in 2013 to 6.7 percent this year and 6.6 percent in 2015, despite the negative effects of the minimum wage on employment. Details

  7. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the June 2014 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Falls

    Jun 24, 2014: The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell to 109.7 points in June from 110.4 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation remained good, but companies were less optimistic about future business developments. The German economy fears the potential impact of the crises in the Ukraine and Iraq. Details

  8. Ukraine Conflict Dampens German Business Confidence

    Jun 17, 2014: The conflict over Ukraine has dampened the business confidence of German companies in recent months. This is the result of a special survey in the manufacturing sector by the Ifo Institute. “Since the beginning of the year, for companies that have relations to Russia, the business outlook in particular has worsened more so than for companies that have no dealings with Russia. This is clearly evident in our analysis”, comments Timo Wollmershäuser, acting head of business cycle analysis and surveys at the Ifo Institute. Details

  9. Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn Mourns the Death of Frank Schirrmacher

    Jun 15, 2014: Frank Schirrmacher, one of the editors of Frankfurter Allgemeine, reinvented the cultural section of German newspapers by incorporating the major social and scientific issues of our time. The debate he touched off on the Internet is fresh in our memories. He succeeded in linking recent research in natural and social sciences with the tradition of the European humanities. He also included topics from economics, an area that European intellectuals are normally reluctant to approach. What he wrote, and got others to write, on demographics and retirement issues overlapped with economic analyses and gave them a new and deeper meaning. And his criticism of casino capitalism was only in apparent contradiction to the economic perspective. It fact it was fully in line with what many economists had argued but was even more radical and fundamental. Details

  10. Danube Flooding Eclipses Nepotism Affair for Bavarian Voters

    Jun 14, 2014: The flooding of the Danube helped Bavarian voters forget the nepotism affair in 2013. This is the result of a statistical analysis of the Ifo Institute. “The involvement in the nepotism affair had no negative impact on the conservative CSU party in voting behaviour in the Bavarian state elections”, says Niklas Potrafke, head of the Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. “Instead, our results show that in constituencies that were affected by the Danube flooding, the CSU was able to gain six to seven percentage points more votes than in similar constituencies that experienced no flooding. This is a numerically significant effect”, says Potrafke. Details

  11. Business Climate for Freelance Architects at Twenty-year High

    Jun 12, 2014: The business climate for freelance architects in Germany is at a twenty-year high. This is confirmed by the quarterly survey of the Ifo Institute as released in ifo Schnelldienst on Thursday. The surveyed architects gave a more positive assessment of their current business situation than in the previous two quarters. The share of surveyed architects that characterised their current situation as “good” was 46%; in the previous quarter it was 42%. Only 14% of the architects assessed their business as “poor”, down from 18% in the previous quarter. Since the beginning of the 1990s, an even lower level was only recorded twice. Details

  12. Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn criticizes ECB’s decisions

    Jun 5, 2014: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised the ECB's decisions. "This is a desperate attempt to use even cheaper credit and punitive interest rates on deposits to divert capital flows to southern Europe and stimulate their economies," Sinn said on Thursday in Munich. Details

  13. Results of the Ifo Export Climate for April 2014

    Ifo Export Climate Rises: German Export Opportunities Improve

    Jun 4, 2014: The export opportunities for German companies have improved. The Ifo Export Climate increased to 0.32 balance points in April from 0.19 balance points in March, reported the Munich-based Ifo Institute on Wednesday. This increase was driven by an improvement in company and consumer confidence in international business. “The signs are good that German exports may increase moderately in the second quarter”, says the head of Ifo’s Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys Timo Wollmershäuser. Details

  14. Ukraine Crisis Unsettles German Manufacturers

    Jun 3, 2014: The crisis in the Ukraine is unsettling German manufacturers, according to the results of a special online survey of nearly 2,500 Ifo Business Survey participants conducted in May. Almost 17 percent of respondents are already feeling the impact of the crisis on their business. A third of companies even fear that the crisis, should it continue, will negatively impact their business, especially in terms of exports to Russia. Almost a third of the 2,500 firms surveyed stated that they have either direct or indirect business relations with Russia. Details

  15. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for May 2014

    German Companies Enjoy Increasingly Easy Access to Bank Loans

    May 30, 2014: Credit constraints on German companies once again fell to a historical low. Only 17.4 percent of the companies surveyed reported restrictive access to bank loans, versus 18.2 percent last month. Financing conditions for German companies remain extremely favourable. Details

  16. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for May 2014

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Falls Slightly

    May 28, 2014: The Ifo Business Index for Eastern German trade and industry clouded over somewhat in May. Eastern German companies no longer assessed their current business situation as favourably as last month. Overall they were also more pessimistic about their future business outlook. Economic activity in Eastern German stabilised at a high level. Details

  17. Minimum Wage Forces Many “Mini-jobbers” to Review Working Hours

    May 28, 2014: The introduction of a minimum wage of 8.50 euros per hour is forcing around 4.5 million so-called “mini-jobbers” in Germany to review their working hours, according to researchers at the Ifo Institute. “The increase in wages will mean that many marginally employed persons will exceed the threshold of 450 euros per month. This means that additional social insurance contributions will have to be paid, which will burden their net income and further reduce the attractiveness of such jobs,” notes Ifo researcher Steffen Henzel. Details

  18. More Nursery Places Lead to More Births

    May 27, 2014: More nursery places lead to more births, according to a recent study by the Ifo Institute on the increase in the number of nursery places in Western Germany. Researchers found that a 10 percent increase in the nursery care rate for under three year-olds led to an average 2.8 percent increase in birth rates. “Nursery places improve the compatibility of having a family and a career,” explains Stefan Bauernschuster from the University of Passau. Details

  19. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for May 2014

    German Companies More Cautious About Recruiting

    May 26, 2014: The Ifo Employment Barometer for German and industry trade, including the service sector, fell to 106.9 points in May from 107.4 points last month. The overall number of staff employed, however, will continue to rise, albeit more slowly. Willingness to recruit staff remains highest in the service sector. The German Federal Employment Agency is due to release its latest unemployment figures on Wednesday. Details

  20. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the May 2014 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Falls

    May 23, 2014: The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany fell to 110.4 points in May from 111.2 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation were no longer as favourable as in April. Companies are also less optimistic about future business developments. A lull was seen in the German economy in May. Details

  21. Ifo President Sinn Welcomes Schäuble’s Opposition to ECB Bond Purchases

    May 22, 2014: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has welcomed the fact that the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble wants to block bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB) via the OMT programme. “This is a reaction to the German Constitutional Court’s announcement that with the OMT the ECB is overstepping its mandate and misusing its power. The German Federal government had not publicly responded to the Constitutional Court’s statement of 7 February prior to Schäuble’s comments. This is one of the few indirect indications that the government is taking the Court’s statement seriously”, said Sinn on Thursday in Munich. “This means that it seems unlikely that the OMT can ever be used to protect the buyers of over-indebted countries’ government bonds from financial losses.” Details

  22. Population Ageing Poses a Serious Threat to Public Finances

    May 22, 2014: Population ageing in Germany poses a serious threat to public finances in the long term, according to the results of a new research report by the Ifo Institute commissioned by the German Federal Ministry of Finance. As of 2018 the social welfare expenditure ratio measured by annual economic output will, after a brief decline, rise continuously, write the report’s authors Martin Werding and Christoph Schinke. They quantify the long-term need for correction either via lower expenditure or via taxation and contribution increases (“sustainability gap”) as between 0.6 percent and 3.1 percent of annual economic output depending on the calculation model used. Details

  23. Expert Warns of Gas Shortage Due to Ukraine Conflict

    May 15, 2014: The foreign affairs expert Josef Braml has warned that gas deliveries destined for Western Europe may be channeled off by the Ukraine for its own use should Russia cancel deliveries to the country. “There is a danger that Kiev – as in 2006 – may believe that its European friends are duty-bound to show solidarity and lay claim to energy supplies destined for Europe should Russia cancel deliveries,” writes Braml in an article for the latest issue of ifo Schnelldienst published on Thursday. Braml works for the German Society for Foreign Policy based in Berlin. Details

  24. Ifo Institute Compiles New Database on Energy and Commodities

    May 14, 2014: The Munich-based Ifo Institute is compiling a new database on energy and commodities. The database offers both researchers and interested members of the general public an overview of estimated available and extractable deposits of fossil fuels, as well as trends in renewable energies. Debates over “peak oil”, the necessity for climate policy measures and rising commodity prices reflect the importance of such estimates for economic, climate and energy policy. Details

  25. Ifo World Economic Climate Deteriorates Marginally

    May 14, 2014: The Ifo Index for the world economy fell from 103.2 to 102.3 points. Assessments of the current economic situation remain satisfactory. The six-month economic outlook clouded over slightly, but remains friendly overall. WES experts expect world economic growth of 2.5 percent this year. They forecast growth rates of 1.6 percent for Europe and 2.5 percent for North America. In Latin America and Asia, by contrast, respective growth rates of 2.3 percent and 3.7 percent will be lower than the high figures seen in the recent past. The world economy continues to follow an upward trend, but is showing little momentum. Details

  26. Ifo Viewpoint No. 158: Thomas Pikettys Weltformel

    May 14, 2014: Thomas Piketty hat mit seinem Buch über Verteilungsfragen den Nerv der Amerikaner getroffen. Das Buch erinnert an Karl Marx, Piketty hat einen ähnlich emotionalen Schreibstil, und er benutzt eine ähnliche Theorie. Details

  27. Ifo Viewpoint No. 157: Quantitative Easing

    May 12, 2014: Quantitative Easing (QE), also quantitative Lockerung, heißt das neue Zauberwort der Europäischen Zentralbank (EZB). Gemeint ist das hinter verschlossenen Türen vorbereitete Programm zum Aufkauf privater und staatlicher Wertpapiere durch die EZB, das den Banken und der Wirtschaft Südeuropas helfen soll. Der EZB-Rat hat das Programm auf seiner Sitzung am vergangenen Donnerstag wegen großer Widerstände in einigen Euro-Ländern zwar noch nicht aktiviert, doch er hält es weiter in petto. Details

  28. Right-Wing Governments Have Lower Debt Levels Than Left-Wingers

    May 9, 2014: Right-wing governments in Europe have had lower debt levels and fiscal balances on average than their left-wing counterparts since the turn of the century. These are the results of a new paper to be published soon by the Ifo Institute in the ifo Schnelldienst. “Left-wing and right-wing governments in industrialised economies have pursued virtually identical economic policies since the end of the Cold War. So it is interesting to note that differences in the financial policies of left-wing and right-wing governments have emerged in recent years”, said Niklas Potrafke, head of the Ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. Details

  29. Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn Accuses EU bodies of Window-Dressing Figures on Greece

    May 7, 2014: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn accuses the EU bodies of once again fiddling the figures for Greece’s public finances. “The European statistical office removed from its database the usual data on Greece’s public deficit excluding interest payments (primary balance) a couple of days ago,” criticised Mr Sinn on Wednesday in Munich. “In this way, the European institutions are following the strategy of embellishing the financial situation of the crisis countries prior to the European Parliament elections. In truth, Greece is still far from regaining financial health. The removal of the data occurred right after the Ifo Institute had accused the European Commission of misleading the public.” Details

  30. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 2nd quarter 2014

    Ifo Economic Climate Indicator in the Euro Area Continues to Brighten

    May 7, 2014: The Ifo Index for the economic climate in the euro area rose from 119.9 points to 123.0 points in the second quarter, reaching its highest level since the end of 2007. The economic recovery is expected to take shape more clearly in the months ahead. According to the experts surveyed, economic growth will total 1.3 percent this year. Estimates range from -4.9 percent for Cyprus to 2.8 percent for Latvia. The rise in the Ifo indicator is due to less unfavourable assessments of the current economic situation. The economic outlook for the next six months remains good. Details

  31. Ifo Viewpoint No. 156: Europe’s Next Moral Hazard

    May 6, 2014: The euro crisis has passed through six phases so far. It is worth recalling them, because they show how policymakers stumbled along, trying to put out fires without keeping an eye on where their chosen path was leading them. Currently, markets remain calm, but this is only the beginning of a seventh phase of the crisis, during which Europe will become mired in debt. The sequence so far has been as follows: Details

  32. Ifo Viewpoint No. 155: Why We Should Give Putin a Chance

    May 2, 2014: The fact that the Soviet Union broke up without a civil war a quarter-century ago, that Russia subsequently found the path towards a market economy and that Eastern Europe was integrated into the European Union was a gift of history. The players involved in the Crimea crisis should not squander such a gift. Details

  33. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for April 2014

    German Companies Enjoy Easier Access to Credit

    Apr 30, 2014: It has never been as easy for German companies to access credit. Only 18.2 percent of firms in German trade and industry reported problems in obtaining credit in Ifo’s April survey, the lowest figure since the indicator was launched in 2003. Last month’s figure was 18.5 percent. Details

  34. Results of the Ifo Export Climate for March 2014

    Ifo Expects Moderate Increase in German Exports

    Apr 30, 2014: The German economy will have to adapt to slightly tougher export conditions. It can, however, still expect to achieve increases in exports, according to the results of the Ifo Export Climate published by the Ifo Institute on Wednesday. According to the survey, the export climate dropped in March to 0.14 points from 0.22 points in February. “This means that we can expect a moderate increase in German exports in the first quarter,” notes Ifo expert Christian Grimme. Details

  35. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for April 2014

    Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Improves

    Apr 29, 2014: After last month’s decline, the Ifo Business Climate Index for the Eastern German Länder rose by 0.7 points in April. Eastern German companies were even more satisfied with their current business situation than in March. Survey participants only marginally adjusted their business expectations for the next six months. The signs for the Eastern German economy are positive, although confidence remains checked by the crisis in the Ukraine. Details

  36. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for April 2014

    German Companies Continue to Recruit

    Apr 28, 2014: German companies are continuing to recruit staff, according to the results of the Ifo Employment Barometer for German industry. The index remained unchanged in April at a level of 107.4 points, announced the Munich-based Ifo Institute on Monday. The recruitment dynamic was particularly strong in the service sector. Other branches were slightly more cautious about hiring new staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer is calculated for the German newspaper Handelsblatt. The German Federal Employment Agency will release its unemployment figures on Wednesday. Details

  37. Hans-Werner Sinn Accuses Troika of Misleading the Public

    Apr 24, 2014: The President of the Ifo Institute, Hans-Werner Sinn, has contradicted the statement by the Troika of the EU Commission, the ECB and the IMF that Greece generated a budget surplus of 0.8 percent of GDP in 2013. “This announcement is tantamount to misleading the public. In reality, there can be no talk of budget surpluses,” said Sinn on Thursday in Munich. “What the Troika had a Commission speaker announce in Brussels was a figure that simply excluded any items of expenditure declared to be non-recurring, and notably the costs of the bank bailout, although it is far from clear that further bank bailout funds will not be required in the future. Budget balances can always be made positive if enough items of expenditure are left out of them. That is why it is so important to abide by the Eurostat rules on primary deficit calculation, and not to bend those rules at will whenever it is convenient.” Details

  38. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the April 2014 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

    Apr 24, 2014: The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose in April to 111.2 points from 110.7 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation, which were already favourable, improved somewhat. Companies are also more confident about future business developments. Despite the crisis in Ukraine, the positive mood in the German economy prevails. Details

  39. German Health Insurance Funds criticise Schäuble

    Apr 11, 2014: The head of the German Association of National Health Insurance Funds, Doris Pfeiffer, has criticised Germany’s federal finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. With his budgets for 2014 and 2015, “The German federal government is now reaching into the pockets of contributors to the social security system”, writes Pfeiffer in an article for the latest issue of ifo-Schnelldienst, published on Friday in Munich. Details

  40. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014: Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind

    Apr 10, 2014: The German economy is experiencing an upturn in spring 2014. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year. The 68 percent projection interval ranges from 1.2 percent to 2.6 percent. Domestic demand is the main driver of growth. Consumer prices will increase by a moderate 1.3 percent in 2014. The number of persons in employment looks set to rise steeply once again in 2014. Economic activity, however, will have to weather an economic policy headwind. The entitlement to a full pension as of 63 years is a step in the wrong direction and the introduction of the minimum wage will curb the rise in employment in 2015. Details

  41. Growth Picks Up in Eurozone

    Apr 7, 2014: Economic growth is accelerating in the Eurozone. It will reach 0.4 percent in the first quarter of 2014, following 0.2 percent and 0.1 percent respectively in the two previous quarters. Economic output is subsequently anticipated to rise by 0.3 percent in both the second and third quarters of 2014. These are the results of forecasts by the research institutes Ifo, INSEE and Istat, based in Germany, France and Italy respectively. This economic upswing will be broad-based, covering all of the economic sectors and involving the majority of the 18 member countries. Details

Press contact

Harald Schultz

Ifo Institute
Press, Publications, Conferences
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1218
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1267
Email: schultz@ifo.de
Website


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