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Press releases in the past quarter

  1. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the April 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Rise

    Apr 24, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German trade and industry rose to 108.6 points in April from 107.9 points last month. Assessments of the current business situation once again improved considerably. Optimistic assessments of the business outlook, however, were scaled back slightly. The upswing in the German economy continues. Details

  2. Ifo President Sinn Calls For Higher Interest Rates and Annual Settlement of Overdraft Credit Between Euro Central Banks

    Apr 17, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has called for higher interest rates on the overdraft loans between Eurosystem central banks and a yearly settlement of them. “It is unacceptable that only 0.05 percent is paid in annual interest rates and that loans never have to be repaid. Such conditions merely invite Greece to run up more debts and also encourage capital flight from the country” said Sinn on Friday in Munich. “Instead the US system should apply whereby balances between the districts of the US Federal Bank have to be settled once a year. This would make it far harder to resort to the electronic printing press, and would prompt countries facing the threat of capital flight to introduce capital controls earlier on,” argued Sinn. Details

  3. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2015: A Strong Upswing Thanks to Cheap Oil and a Weak Euro

    Apr 16, 2015: The German economy is experiencing a strong upturn driven by unexpected expansive impulses, especially the falling oil price and the sharp depreciation of the euro. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 2.1 percent this year. The 68 percent projection interval ranges from 1.1 percent to 2.8 percent. Consumption is the driving force behind the upturn. The rest of the euro area is also expected to produce slightly positive impulses, meaning that international trade will contribute to growth. The pace of growth is only expected to slow slightly in the year ahead. The euro’s depreciation will continue to stimulate the economy, while the positive effects of the lower oil price are expected to fade. Public budgets will show significant surpluses of over twenty billion euros in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In view of large structural surpluses, the time is ripe to make the income tax rate more performance-oriented – especially for small and medium-sized companies. Details

  4. Economic Experts Upwardly Revise Forecast to 2.1 Percent GDP Growth in 2015

    Apr 16, 2015: German economic experts have significantly upwardly revised their forecasts for this year. They now expect 2.1 percent growth in gross domestic product, after forecasting just 1.2 percent growth in autumn 2014. “The low oil price is leaving Germans more money to spend, while the weak euro is boosting exports”, said Timo Wollmershäuser, Director of the Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys at the Ifo Institute, which is supervising the Joint Economic Forecast this year. In their spring forecast the research institutes expect overall economic production to increase by 1.8 percent in 2016. The unemployment rate is accordingly expected to fall to 6.3 percent in 2015 from 6.7 percent last year; and to drop further to 5.9 percent next year. Details

  5. Raj Chetty is Richard Musgrave Professor

    Apr 15, 2015: Raj Chetty, Bloomberg Professor of Economics at Harvard University, has been awarded this year’s Richard Musgrave Professorship by CESifo and the International Institute of Public Finance (IIPF). With this award, the prize winner is also named a Distinguished CESifo Fellow. Details

  6. Capital Flows out of Italy Rise to 27 Billion Euros Net in March

    Apr 9, 2015: A net total of 27 billion euros in capital flowed out of Italy in March, according to a publication by the Banca d’Italia. “This could be partially due to speculative overseas bank transfers by Italian banks, which are now investing the money that they received from the European Central Bank’s bond acquisitions in the context of the QE program outside of Italy,” explained Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. Details

  7. Eurozone’s Economy Recovers Slightly

    Apr 8, 2015: The Eurozone’s economy is expected to recover slightly in 2015. Gross domestic product looks set to grow by 0.4 percent in the first three quarters of the year, versus just 0.2 percent and 0.3 percent in the third and fourth quarter of 2014 respectively. These are the results of calculations by the Ifo Institute (Munich), INSEE (Paris) and ISTAT (Rome). Details

  8. Ifo Viewpoint No. 164: Europe’s Easy-Money Endgame

    Mar 31, 2015: The euro has brought a balance-of-payments crisis to Europe, just as the gold standard did in the 1920s. In fact, there is only one difference between the two episodes: During today’s crisis, huge international rescue packages have been available. These rescue packages have relieved the eurozone’s financial distress, but at Details

  9. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for March 2015

    Credit Constraints Edge Down to Historic Low

    Mar 30, 2015: Credit constraints for German companies edged down to 16.1 percent in March from 16.2 percent last month, dipping to a new historic low for the third month in succession. Financing conditions for companies in Germany remain excellent. Details

  10. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for March 2015

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern German Länder Rises Sharply

    Mar 27, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate for trade and industry in eastern Germany improved clearly in March. Eastern German survey participants remain very satisfied with their current business situation, although no longer to the same extent as last month. In addition, they were far more optimistic about future business developments in March. The eastern German economy continues to expand rapidly. Details

  11. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for March 2015

    German Firms Plan to Recruit More Staff

    Mar 27, 2015: German firms proved more willing to recruit additional staff in March. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 108.1 index points, up from 106.8 in February. Service providers and manufacturers in particular reported plans to expand their staff bases. Details

  12. Ifo Export Expectations Results of the Ifo Business Survey for March 2015

    Export Outlook Continues to Improve for Manufacturing

    Mar 26, 2015: German manufacturing can look forward to a continued rise in exports. The Ifo Export Expectations rose to 12.2 balance points in March from 11.8 points in February. The robust U.S. economy and the low euro exchange rate are benefiting German exporters. Details

  13. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the March 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Rises

    Mar 25, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German trade and industry rose to 107.9 points in March from 106.8 points last month. The index reached its highest level since July 2014. Companies were more satisfied with their current business situation. They also expressed far greater optimism about future business developments. The German economy continues to expand. Details

  14. New Ifo Study: Computers Impact Teaching Both Positively and Negatively

    Mar 19, 2015: Using computers in the classroom does not lead to an improvement in the average performance of students in math and science, according to a recent study by the Ifo Institute. “But the average result masks the fact that the use of computers has opposing effects in different areas”, says Ludger Woessmann, Director of the Ifo Center for the Economics of Education. “If computers are used to look up ideas and information student outcomes improve; but using computers to practice skills reduces student achievement,” he explains. The Ifo Institute’s study covers the math and science achievement of over 400,000 students in fourth and eighth grade from over 50 countries on the TIMSS international student achievement test. Details

  15. Ifo Viewpoint No. 163: Why the Taxpayer is on the Hook

    Mar 18, 2015: It has repeatedly been attempted in the media to demonstrate that taxpayers would not have to foot the bill should losses occur from the purchases of government bonds by the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB balance sheet, it is asserted, is pure fiction. It can conjure up money out of thin air. German populists are stalking fear among the populace because they don’t understand this. Details

  16. Capital Flight from Greece Continues

    Mar 17, 2015: The Eurosystem’s central banks are continuing to finance capital flight from Greece via the Target payment system, reported the Ifo Institute on Tuesday citing the latest figures released by Athens. Details

  17. Prize for the best dissertation in the economics of education

    Mar 13, 2015: The Committee for the Economics of Education of the German Economic Association and the Roland Berger Foundation for European Business Management award Pia Pinger a prize for the best dissertation in the economics of education • The thesis shows that education is key to personal success and equal opportunities in society • The Committee for the Economics of Education awards the prize for best dissertation in the economics of education for the first time • Prize money of 2,000 euros was donated by Roland Berger Foundation for European Business Management Details

  18. Ifo Architects Survey: Business Climate Improves for Freelance Architects

    Mar 12, 2015: The business climate improved at the beginning of the first quarter of 2015, according to the results of the Ifo Institute’s survey of freelance architects in Germany. This was entirely due to a more optimistic assessment of developments over the next six months. Details

  19. Cultural Expenditure Spills Over to the Entire Regional Economy

    Mar 10, 2015: Expenditure on cultural amenities has a positive effect on the prosperity of the city and region in which they are located, according to a recent study by the Ifo Institute. Details

  20. Ifo President Sinn Criticises ECB’s Bond Purchases

    Mar 9, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised the European Central bank’s bond purchases. “The justification for the purchases is merely a pretext, since there is no core deflation in the Eurozone, but a collapse in oil prices that is highly welcome in terms of the economy”, explained Sinn on Monday in Munich. Details

  21. Greece’s Payment Burden Soars

    Mar 5, 2015: The financing of capital flight from Greece via the Eurosystem has sharply increased the country’s payment obligations to international public institutions. According to calculations by the Ifo Institute, these payment obligations rose to 319 billion euros, or 173 percent of Greece’s annual economic output, by the end of January. Details

  22. Capital Flight from Greece Accelerates Dramatically

    Feb 27, 2015: Capital flight from Greece accelerated dramatically in January. Last month Greece’s Central Bank asked the other central banks in the Eurozone, as well as the ECB head office, to fill foreign bank accounts with a net sum of almost 27 billion euros. The Eurosystem thus effectively granted Greece over a billion euros per working day in additional overdraft credit. This was revealed by the latest figures released by the Greek central bank, reported the Ifo Institute on Friday in Munich. “To prevent a replay of events in Cyprus in 2012, the ECB should force the Greek government to introduce capital controls by refusing to grant more fresh emergency liquidity assistance,” said Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. Details

  23. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for February 2015

    Credit Constraints Hit Historic Low Once Again

    Feb 27, 2015: Credit constraints for German companies fell to 16.2 percent in February from 17.1 percent last month, taking them 0.9 percentage points below the historic low reached in January. The flood of money expected from the European Central Bank seems to be encouraging banks to further ease their already loose credit constraints. Details

  24. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for February 2015

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern German Länder Remains on the Rise

    Feb 26, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate for the Eastern German Länder improved for the third month in succession. The satisfaction of Eastern German companies with their current business situation rose markedly this month. Survey participants in Eastern Germany are also no longer as pessimistic about future business developments as previously. The pace of positive developments in the Eastern German economy picked up. Details

  25. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for February 2015

    German Firms Recruit Fewer Staff

    Feb 25, 2015: German firms proved slightly less willing to recruit new staff this month. The Ifo Employment Barometer fell to 106.8 index points in February from 108.1 index points in January. There were setbacks in the service sector and a growing number of bright spots in manufacturing. Details

  26. 2015 EEAG Report on the European Economy

    Feb 24, 2015: • World GDP to grow by 3.5 percent in 2015 • US GDP to expand by 3.2 percent, while Russia falls into recession • European Union and Eurozone GDP to grow by 1.3 and 0.9 percent respectively • A unified energy market should be established in the European Union Details

  27. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for February 2015

    German Manufacturers Increasingly Optimistic about Exports

    Feb 24, 2015: Exports are providing further impetus to German manufacturing. The Ifo Export Expectations rose to 11.9 balance points in February from 9.5 points in January. German exporters continue to benefit from the low euro exchange rate. Details

  28. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the February 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Edges Upwards

    Feb 23, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose to 106.8 points in February from 106.7 points last month. Satisfaction with the current business situation decreased somewhat, but companies expressed greater confidence in future business developments. The German economy is proving robust in the face of geopolitical uncertainty. Details

  29. Ifo President Sinn criticises Ecofin decisions

    Feb 22, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised the decision taken by the Eurozone Finance Ministers on Greece. “Additional cash is nothing more than a painkiller for the Greek disease and will not help to cure it”, said Sinn on Saturday in Munich. “The euro made Greece too expensive and it has to become cheaper to regain competitiveness. This can only happen if Greece exits the Eurozone and devalues the drachma.” Details

  30. Ifo Viewpoint No. 162: Europe’s Shadow Budget

    Feb 20, 2015: More details about the European Commission’s 315 billion euros investment plan for 2015–2017 have finally come to light. The program, announced by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker in November, amounts to a massive shadow budget, twice as large as the European Union’s annual official budget, that will finance public investment projects and ultimately help governments circumvent debt limits established in the Stability and Growth Pact. Details

  31. Ifo Viewpoint No. 161: The Case for Capital Controls

    Feb 19, 2015: Capital flight out of Greece is in full swing. People are hoarding euro cash under the mattress, squirrelling it away or packing it into suitcases to bring it out of the country. Most of all, wealthy Greeks, banks and international investors are issuing payment orders to banks abroad, as long as this is still possible. In December 2014 alone a net 7.6 billion euros, equivalent to 4.1 percent of Greek GDP, was transferred abroad, generating the largest rise in Greece’s Target liabilities to the European Central Bank (ECB) since May 2011. The exodus of capital must have increased significantly as the new year started, spurred by the latest election results, and in particular now, after the new Greek government met a cool response in every European capital to its demands for more fresh money. Details

  32. Ifo World Economic Climate Remains Almost Unchanged

    Feb 12, 2015: The Ifo Index for the world economy edged upwards to 95.9 points after tumbling to 95.0 points last quarter. The improvement in the world economic climate was entirely due to slightly more positive economic expectations. Assessments of the current economic situation remained at last quarter’s level. Overall, the world economy showed little dynamism, but there are significant regional differences. Details

  33. Record Jump of German Target Claims

    Feb 6, 2015: The Target claims on the Eurosystem held by the German Bundesbank jumped by 54 billion euros in January, reaching 515 billion euros. This is one of the largest increases since the onset of the financial and euro crises; only in September 2011 and March 2012 were the upsurges higher, with 59 billion and 69 billion euros, respectively. “Behind this is most likely a massive capital flight from Greece”, said Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. Foreign investors and well-heeled Greeks appear to have whisked their capital to safe havens abroad, spooked by the increased insecurity regarding Greece’s solvency and its permanence in the Eurozone resulting from the outcome of the country’s latest election. Details

  34. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2015

    Ifo Economic Climate in the Euro Area Brightens

    Feb 5, 2015: The Ifo Index for the economic climate in the euro area rose to 112.7 points in the first quarter from 102.3 points last quarter. It is now above its long-term average of 106.1 points. Assessments of both the current economic situation and of the six-month economic outlook brightened. There are signs of an economic recovery in the euro area. Experts expect to see a price increase of 0.7% in 2015 and an annual inflation rate of around 1.6% over the next three to five years. Details

  35. Germany’s Capital Exports Hit New High

    Feb 2, 2015: Germany achieved a new world record in capital exports in 2014, according to calculations by the Ifo Institute. Its current account surplus increased by around 30 billion euros to almost 220 billion euros, which corresponds to 7.5% of economic output. This development was driven by the trade balance. Other items of the current accounts (like services and income from interest) had a slightly negative impact overall, with the low interest rate policy pursued by the European Central Bank sharply curbing Germany’s foreign revenues. Details

  36. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for January 2015

    Credit Constraints Fall to Historic Low

    Jan 30, 2015: Credit constraints for German companies fell to 17.1 percent in January from 17.4 percent last month. This marks a new historical low. The financing conditions for German companies remain excellent at the beginning of 2015. The drop in credit constraints reflects the inflationary flood of money that banks expect from the European Central Bank. Details

  37. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2015

    Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Starts the Year Cautious, but Positive

    Jan 29, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for the Eastern German Länder rose only slightly at the beginning of the year. The improvement in the business climate was due to better assessments of the current business situation on the part of Eastern German companies. In terms of business expectations, by contrast, Eastern German survey participants are somewhat more pessimistic. The recovery seen in the Eastern German economy in the fourth quarter of 2014 continued at the beginning of 2015. Details

  38. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2015

    Export Outlook for German Manufacturing Continues to Brighten

    Jan 28, 2015: German manufacturers expect exports to rise. The Ifo Export Expectations rose for the fourth time in succession in January to 9.5 balance points from 7.7 balance points in December. Exports, which were already very high, were given an additional boost by the sharp drop in the euro exchange rate. Details

  39. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2015

    German Firms Step Up Search for Extra Staff

    Jan 28, 2015: The economic upturn is prompting a growing number of German firms to look for additional staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 108.2 index points in January from 106.6 points in December, reaching its highest value since March 2012. Service providers remain the main driver behind this development. Details

  40. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the January 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Continues to Rise

    Jan 26, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany rose to 106.7 points in January from 105.5 points last month, marking its third successive increase. Companies were far more satisfied with their current business situation and the majority was also optimistic about the business outlook. The German economy makes a good start to the year. Details

  41. Ifo Institute Investigates TTIP’s Potential Impact on Third Countries

    Jan 23, 2015: TTIP will not only affect its negotiation partners, but will also potentially impact developing and emerging economies. On the one hand, higher income in the EU and the USA will increase demand for goods and services in third countries, which should benefit them. On the other hand, the agreement can be expected to divert trade flows from TTIP partners away from third countries, which will be detrimental to them. In a new study commissioned by the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Ifo Institute in Munich and the IAW Tübingen jointly explore how threats to emerging countries can be minimised and opportunities can be maximised, to turn the agreement into the basis for a new and fair world trading system. Details

  42. Ifo President Sinn Criticises ECB Decision

    Jan 22, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised the quantitative easing decisions of the European Central Bank. “This is tantamount to illegal government financing through the money-printing press. If the ECB buys sovereign bonds, the governments will issue new bonds, in effect drawing their funding from the printing press. This is prohibited by Article 123 of the EU Treaty and would require clearing by the German Constitutional Court,” said Sinn in Munich. Details

  43. Ifo Institute Changes Seasonal Adjustment in Business Climate Index

    Jan 16, 2015: The Ifo Institute is changing the seasonal adjustment procedure in its Business Climate Index to improve the filtering out of seasonal fluctuations. This should have a significant impact on the results for the construction sector, and particularly on the business expectations component. The effects on most other numbers are small. The newly calculated Ifo Business Climate Index remains at 105.5 for December 2015. The revised business situation index is now at 109.8 (old procedure: 110.0) and the revised expectations are at 101.4 (old procedure: 101.1). Figures that show significant working day effects will also be subject to an additional working-day adjustment. The downward movement in the business climate index over the course of 2014 calculated according to the new adjustment method was almost identical to the results obtained for the procedure used to date. The increase that followed in November and December was also nearly the same when calculated using both methods. All of the time series will be newly calculated retrospectively according to the new procedure. Details

  44. Ifo President Sinn Criticises EU Advocate General on ECB Proceedings

    Jan 14, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised the statement by the EU Advocate General on the OMT proceedings against the European Central Bank (ECB). “This is tantamount to a carte blanche for the European Central Bank, provided that it justifies its behaviour,” said Sinn. Details

  45. Ifo President Sinn Fears Fresh Capital Flight from Italy

    Jan 12, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn sees signs of fresh capital flight from Italy. “In December 2014 alone 13 billion euros in net transfers were made from Italy to countries abroad via the European Target System. These transfers take the form of a kind of implicit overdraft credit to the Banca d’Italia issued by the European Central Bank,” says Sinn, citing the latest figures released by the Italian Central Bank. “Italy’s Target debt to the ECB System rose from July 2014 by 79 billion euros to 209 billion euros in December 2014. This latest increase is a sign of fresh capital flight from Italy, which is a clear indication that the euro crisis was only lying dormant and is by no means over.“ Details

  46. Euro Area Economy Expanding at a Slow Pace

    Jan 12, 2015: Economic growth in the euro area is expected to accelerate mildly, but remain weak. It will amount to 0.3 percent in the first and second quarters of 2015 respectively, following 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014, according to the latest forecast by the Ifo Institute (Munich), INSEE (Paris) and ISTAT (Rome). The average figures for 2015 disguise heterogeneity among countries: the institutes expect robust growth for Germany and Spain, moderate expansion in France and weak development in Italy. Details

  47. Ifo President Sinn Calls For International Debt Conference on Greece

    Jan 6, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has called for an international debt conference on Greece. “Greece needs to get back on its feet economically and become competitive again. This calls for a devaluation of its currency, thus a temporary euro exit, which, in turn, calls for a haircut. All of this must be jointly decided upon and internationally coordinated”, said Sinn, citing the country’s miserable economic situation as justification for the proposal. “Unemployment in Greece is now twice as high as it was in May 2010. Industrial production has plunged by 30 percent compared to its pre-crisis level. The country is sitting in a trap. Internal depreciation via austerity programmes has failed.” Details

  48. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2014

    A Whiff of Optimism in the German Employment Market

    Jan 2, 2015: As the year drew to a close, German companies were planning to recruit more staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 106.7 index points in December from 105.4 points in November. Service providers were once again the main driver behind this development. Details

Press contact

Harald Schultz

Ifo Institute
Press, Publications, Conferences
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1218
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1267
Email: schultz@ifo.de
Website


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