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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Latest releases

  1. Eurozone Economic Outlook January 2016

    The Recovery Continues Amid Risks

    Jan 12, 2016: The recovery in the Eurozone is expected to continue at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 1.5% in 2015, and by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarters in both Q1 and Q2 2016. Private consumption is set to continue to be the main driver behind the upturn, stimulated by a renewed drop in oil prices and higher earnings on labour. In addition, expansive stimuli from fiscal policy, mainly in Germany, are expected to raise public consumption. Details

  2. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony (16 December 2015)

    Domestic Forces Strengthen Eastern German Economy

    Dec 16, 2015: Eastern Germany’s real economic output (including Berlin) will grow strongly by 1.6 percent this year and by 1.8 percent in the year ahead. Growth in Saxony of 1.9 percent in 2015 and 2.0 percent in 2016 is expected to be slightly higher than the Eastern Germany average. Domestic forces will continue to support the upswing, and especially private consumption. There will also be strong growth in public sector services over the forecasting period due to the migration of refugees. In all this, the increase in employment in the eastern German and Saxon labour market is expected to continue. Details

  3. Ifo Economic Forecast 9 December 2015

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2015-2017: Modest Upswing Continues

    Dec 9, 2015: The modest upturn seen in the German economy for some time is expected to continue. Real gross domestic product will increase by 1.7% this year, and by 1.9% in 2016. The growth rate is subsequently expected to fall to 1.7% in 2017. Private consumption will continue to drive the upswing, which will be boosted by a renewed drop in oil prices, higher earnings and transfers and a lighter tax and social charges burden on households. In addition, expansive stimuli from fiscal and social policy will be stronger, not least due to far higher government expenditure on consumption and transfers related to the influx of refugees. While construction investment is expected to grow sharply over the forecasting period, equipment investment will only see a modest increase, despite favourable financing conditions. Since imports are expected to rise more than exports due to forecasts of strong domestic demand, there will be almost no stimuli from foreign trade. Details

  4. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2015

    German Economy Stable but Needs Effective Policies to Nurture Growth

    Oct 8, 2015: The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product will increase by 1.8 percent in 2015 and in 2016 respectively. Growth will be driven by private consumption. In view of the world economy’s modest growth, exports are only expected to rise slightly, especially as the stimulating effect of the euro’s depreciation gradually starts to fade. There will be a more rapid expansion in employment, although unemployment is expected to grow slightly in 2016 as the large number of refugees currently arriving in Germany gradually impacts the labour market. Public budgets are expected to post a surplus of 13 billion euros in 2016. This will be significantly lower than the surplus of around 23 billion euros forecast for 2015, mainly due to additional expenditure related to tackling the influx of refugees. Details

  5. Eurozone Economic Outlook October 2015

    Recovery driven by domestic demand

    Oct 6, 2015: Real domestic product in the Eurozone expanded by 0.4% in Q2, in line with our previous forecast. In the second half of 2015, real GDP is expected to expand at a moderate pace (+0.4% in Q3 and +0.5% in Q4). Primarily driven by domestic demand, growth is set to accelerate from +0.9% in 2014 to +1.6% in 2015. Details


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