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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Latest releases

  1. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2015

    A Strong Upswing Thanks to Cheap Oil and a Weak Euro

    Apr 16, 2015: The German economy is experiencing a strong upturn driven by unexpected expansive impulses, especially the falling oil price and the sharp depreciation of the euro. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 2.1 percent this year. The 68 percent projection interval ranges from 1.1 percent to 2.8 percent. Consumption is the driving force behind the upturn. The rest of the euro area is also expected to produce slightly positive impulses, meaning that international trade will contribute to growth. The pace of growth is only expected to slow slightly in the year ahead. The euro’s depreciation will continue to stimulate the economy, while the positive effects of the lower oil price are expected to fade. Public budgets will show significant surpluses of over twenty billion euros in 2015 and 2016 respectively. In view of large structural surpluses, time is ripe to make the income tax rate more performance-oriented – especially for small and medium-sized companies. Details

  2. Eurozone Economic Outlook April 2015

    A Change of Pace in Sight

    Apr 8, 2015: In the Eurozone, activity picked up by 0.3% in Q4 2014, after moderately expanding in Q3 (+0.2%). The recovery in production is expected to continue. GDP is to slightly accelerate in Q1 2015 (+0.4%) and then continue to expand at the same rate over the following quarters. Details

  3. Eurozone Economic Outlook January 2015

    Expanding at a Slow Pace

    Jan 12, 2015: In Q4 2014, economic activity is expected to confirm the moderate expansion rate registered in Q3 (+0.2%). In Q1 and Q2 2015, GDP is expected to expand modestly by 0.3%, mainly driven by domestic demand. Details

  4. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2014/2015 (17 December 2014)

    Eastern German Economy Regains Footing

    Dec 17, 2014: Real gross domestic product in Eastern Germany (including Berlin) will grow by 1.3 percent in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Economic growth in the Free State of Saxony is even expected to be slightly higher in both years at 1.8 percent. This is due to an upturn in investment demand on the part of companies, robust developments in consumption and the continued revival of the world economy. The positive trend in the labour market has also clearly lost impetus. An additional headwind over the forecasting period will come from economic policy. In addition to demographic factors, the nationwide minimum wage and the government’s policy of retirement at 63 are expected to constrain growth in employment in the Eastern German Länder. Details

  5. Ifo Economic Forecast 11 December 2014

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2014/2015: German Economy Gradually Regains Impetus

    Dec 11, 2014: After stagnating during the summer period, the German economy is gradually regaining impetus. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to rise by 1.5% in 2014 and 2015 respectively. Details


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