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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Latest releases

  1. Eurozone Economic Outlook January 2017

    A little faster

    Jan 11, 2017: The Eurozone GDP would appear to have increased by +0.4% in Q4 2016 and is expected to keep growing at the same pace over H1 2017. The economic activity should be driven by steady growth in private consumption and public spending. Favourable labour market conditions as well as increasing nominal wages are expected to buoy up disposable income, despite an upturn in inflation which slowly erodes purchasing power. Moreover, investment should become slightly more dynamic, based on the continuously good financing conditions. The global economy recovery, from both advanced economies and emerging countries, should also foster external demand. Details

  2. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2016/2017 (December 2016)

    Eastern German Economy Maintains Momentum, but International Uncertainty Dampens Dynamic

    Dec 21, 2016: The eastern German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Price-adjusted economic output will increase by 1.6 percent in 2016 and 1.3 percent in 2017. In the Free State of Saxony price-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year and by 1.4 percent in 2017. The dynamic seen in recent months will nevertheless be curbed by the recent surge in international insecurity. Positive stimuli will come from the domestic economy, and especially from the consistently high level of residential construction activity, and strong consumption demand from both consumers and the public service sector. Details

  3. Ifo Economic Forecast 16 December 2016

    Ifo Economic Forecast for 2016-2018: Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy

    Dec 16, 2016: The robust upturn experienced by the German economy as of 2013 is expected to continue. The Ifo Institute expects real gross domestic product to grow by 1.9 percent this year. This figure will drop to 1.5% in 2017, purely due to the lower number of working days in the calendar year compared to 2016. In 2018 real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.7 percent. Details

  4. Eurozone Economic Outlook October 2016

    Modest expansion lying ahead

    Oct 11, 2016: The expansion of Eurozone gross domestic product lost some momentum in Q2 2016 (+0.3%), as investment and private consumption slowed down, partly due to weather related factors. Economic activity is expected to accelerate slightly over the forecast horizon (+0.3% in Q3 2016 then +0.4% in Q4 2016 and Q1 2017) on the back of a strengthening of external demand and a stabilization of private-consumption growth. Details

  5. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2016

    German economy on track – economic policy needs to be realigned

    Sep 29, 2016: The German economy is experiencing a moderate recovery: the GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent next year, and 1.6 percent in 2018. Over the course of the forecast period, capacity utilization will be somewhat higher than the long-term average. Nevertheless, corporate investment’s contribution to the current upswing is minimal: the global economy is generating only minor stimulating effects, which means that exports are only increasing moderately; as well, the extremely low interest rates on the capital market are likely to reflect not only the current monetary policy, but also the low growth expectations. All of these factors are inhibiting equipment investment, and thus consumption continues to be the main growth driver. Private consumption is benefiting from the sustained increase in employment; the high expenditure for housing and integrating the refugees is still having a strong impact on public spending. Residential construction is getting a boost from the low interest rates. Details


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