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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Next Internet Publication Date of the Euro-zone Economic Outlook: 2 July 2014

The Euro-zone Economic Outlook will be published on July 2nd, 2014 and will be available online at this time. read on Next Internet Publication Date of the Euro-zone Economic Outlook: 2 July 2014

Next Internet Publication Date of the Ifo Economic Forecast: 26 June 1014 8:45 a.m. CEST

The Ifo Economic Forecast will be presented at 8:45 a.m. CEST on 26 June 1014 at a press conference and will be available online at this time. read on Next Internet Publication Date of the Ifo Economic Forecast: 26 June 1014 8:45 a.m. CEST

Next Internet Publication Date of the Ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany: 03.07.2014

The Ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany and Saxony will be presented on July 3rd, 2014 at a Ifo Dresden press conference and will be available online at this time. read on Next Internet Publication Date of the Ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany: 03.07.2014

Latest releases

  1. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2014

    Upturn in German Economy, but Economic Policy Creates Headwind

    Apr 10, 2014: The German economy is experiencing an upturn in spring 2014. Gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year. The 68 percent projection interval ranges from 1.2 percent to 2.6 percent. Domestic demand is the main driver of growth. Consumer prices will increase by a moderate 1.3 percent in 2014. The number of persons in employment looks set to rise steeply once again in 2014. Economic activity, however, will have to weather an economic policy headwind. The entitlement to a full pension as of 63 years is a step in the wrong direction and the introduction of the minimum wage will curb the rise in employment in 2015. Details

  2. Euro-zone Economic Outlook April 2014

    Eurozone Growth Recovering

    Apr 7, 2014: The Eurozone recovery is expected to pick up in the first quarter of 2014 with a GDP growth rate of +0.4% (after +0.2% and +0.1% respectively in the previous two quarters). Growth is forecasted to decelerate slightly in the following two quarters. Details

  3. Euro-zone Economic Outlook January 2014

    A Moderate Recovery

    Jan 10, 2014: As projected, GDP in the Eurozone expanded by a meagre 0.1% in Q3 2013, as export growth fell sharply. Economic activity is expected to accelerate modestly over the forecast horizon (+0.2% in Q4 2013, +0.2% in Q1 2014 and +0.3% in Q2 2014) with a gradual shift in growth engines from external to domestic demand. Details

  4. Ifo Economic Forecast 19.12.2013

    Upswing Postponed Until Next Year - Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2013/2014

    Dec 19, 2013: Dresden, 19 December 2013 – The prospect of an upswing in Eastern Germany (including Berlin) and Sachsen has been postponed until next year. Price-adjusted gross domestic product for Eastern Germany is only expected to have increased by 0.2 percent in 2013. Growth looks set to total 1.6 percent in 2014. These figures were presented on 19 December by the Deputy Executive Director of the Dresden Branch of the Ifo Institute Prof. Joachim Ragnitz. “The reconstruction measures related to flooding were initiated later than expected”, highlighted Ragnitz. “That pushes a large share of the value creation into next year” he added. Details

  5. Ifo Economic Forecast 17 December 2013

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2013/2014: German Economy Picks Up Steam

    Dec 17, 2013: Aggregate economic production in Germany looks set to accelerate in the quarters ahead, according to the Ifo Business Climate Index. The latter has followed a clearly upwards tendency in recent months. The world economic environment has also improved and domestic economic conditions are favourable. Uncertainty on the part of companies has diminished, but remains sufficiently high on the part of investors contemplating investing abroad to keep them interested in making a relatively secure investment in Germany. The outlook for private households’ income is favourable. Against this background, economic expansion is expected to be driven by the domestic economy. Real gross domestic product for 2014 should increase on annual average by 1.9% with a (2/3 probability) uncertainty interval of 0.8% to 3.0%. Details

  6. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2013

    Economy Picking up – Put Budget Surpluses to Good Use

    Oct 17, 2013: The German economy is on the verge of an upturn driven by domestic demand. The improving global economic climate and decreasing uncertainty are fuelling investment. Private consumption is benefitting from favourable employment and income prospects. Real gross domestic product looks set to grow by 1.8 percent in 2014, after an increase of just 0.4 percent this year. Consumer prices are expected to rise by a moderate 1.6 percent this year and by 1.9 percent next year. The German public budget will continue to show a surplus. Details

  7. Euro-zone Economic Outlook October 2013

    Growth recovers mildly, amid persistent weakness

    Oct 7, 2013: After six consecutive quarters of decline, GDP in the Eurozone increased by 0.3% in Q2 2013. Economic activity is projected to expand further over the forecast horizon (+0.1% in Q3, +0.3% in Q4 2013 and +0.4% in Q1 2014) mainly on the back of the expected pick-up in external demand as well as fiscal policy gradually becoming less contractionary. Details

  8. Euro-zone Economic Outlook July 2013

    Recovery amid challenges

    Jul 4, 2013: In the Eurozone, activity contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2013, falling for the sixth consecutive quarter. However, GDP growth is expected to turn slightly positive in Q2 2013 (+0.1%), with a mild acceleration over the following quarters (+0.2% in Q3 and +0.3% in Q4). The driving forces of the upturn will be a progressive improvement in exports and a marginal recovery of domestic demand in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, fiscal consolidation and ongoing deleveraging in corporate and banking sectors of several Eurozone economies will continue to weigh on economic growth. Details

  9. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany 03.07.2013

    Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2013/2014: Upturn in Sight

    Jul 3, 2013: The economic situation in Eastern Germany and Saxony looks set to improve steadily over the next 18 months. The price-adjusted gross domestic product of Eastern Germany (including Berlin) looks set to increase by 0.4% overall in 2013 and by 1.6% in 2014. These are the indications of the Ifo Institute’s most recent economic forecast, which was presented by the deputy executive director of the Institute’s Dresden branch, Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz, on 3 July. “This development will mainly be supported by robust domestic demand”, added Ragnitz. Details

  10. Ifo Economic Forecast 26 June 2013

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2013/2014: Favourable Perspectives for the German Economy

    Jun 26, 2013: After a weak winter the German economy looks set to revive over the course of 2013. These are the indications of the Ifo Business Climate Index, which has stabilised at an above-average level in recent months. As long as no significant escalation of the euro crisis occurs, the outlook for next year is also favourable. Real gross domestic product, at a (2/3 probability) uncertainty interval of 0.0% to 1.2 %, should increase by 0.6 % on annual average in 2013. Growth of 1.9% is expected for 2014. Only moderate improvements, however, are expected in the employment situation. Details