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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Latest releases

  1. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2016

    German economy on track – economic policy needs to be realigned

    Sep 29, 2016: The German economy is experiencing a moderate recovery: the GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent next year, and 1.6 percent in 2018. Over the course of the forecast period, capacity utilization will be somewhat higher than the long-term average. Nevertheless, corporate investment’s contribution to the current upswing is minimal: the global economy is generating only minor stimulating effects, which means that exports are only increasing moderately; as well, the extremely low interest rates on the capital market are likely to reflect not only the current monetary policy, but also the low growth expectations. All of these factors are inhibiting equipment investment, and thus consumption continues to be the main growth driver. Private consumption is benefiting from the sustained increase in employment; the high expenditure for housing and integrating the refugees is still having a strong impact on public spending. Residential construction is getting a boost from the low interest rates. Details

  2. Eurozone Economic Outlook July 2016

    Recovery Continues Amid Huge Political Risks

    Jul 12, 2016: UK referendum increased uncertainty about the economic growth prospects in the Eurozone: while the short run impact on the activity of the area, via the trade channel, should be limited until the fourth quarter of 2016, the medium term effect strongly depends upon future agreements between UK and EU countries. In this setting, Eurozone real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 0.3% in Q2, slightly accelerate to 0.4% in Q3 and then slowdown to 0.3% in Q4. The average GDP growth for 2016 is set to be 1.6%. Details

  3. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2016/2017 (28 June 2016)

    Eastern German Economy Sees Steady Growth

    Jun 28, 2016: The price-adjusted gross domestic product of Eastern Germany (including Berlin) will grow by 1.7 percent in 2016 and by 1.3 percent in 2017. In the Free State of Saxony real economic output is expected to rise by 1.8 percent this year and to grow at the marginally slower rate of 1.5 percent in 2017. Strong domestic demand, and especially private consumption, continues to boost the economy. Further positive stimuli include refugee migration, as well as rising demand from German manufacturing over the course of the year. Against this background, levels of employment will continue to rise in the Eastern German and Saxon labour market. Details

  4. Ifo Economic Forecast 16 June 2016

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2016/2017: Upturn in Germany Enters Second Half

    Jun 16, 2016: The robust upturn seen in the German economy since 2014 will continue. The Ifo Institute expects real gross domestic product to grow by 1.8% this year and by 1.6% in 2017. This would further reduce the output gap, which will almost close next year. Details

  5. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2016

    Upturn Remains Moderate – Economic Policy Lacks Growth Orientation

    Apr 14, 2016: The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6 percent this year and by 1.5 percent in 2017. The upturn will be driven by private consumption, which will benefit from continued employment growth, sizeable increases in wage and transfer income and purchasing power gains thanks to lower energy prices. Fiscal policy will also be expansively oriented, partly due to rising costs related to refugee immigration. While investment in construction is also expected to expand markedly, corporate investment activity will remain subdued. Against a background of only gradual world economic recovery and strong domestic demand, no positive economic stimulus is expected from foreign trade. Public budgets will post significant surpluses in the forecasting period. Failing to use this room for manoeuvre to promote growth, as seen in recent years, is not a sustainable path. Details


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