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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Next Publication of the Ifo Economic Forecast: 16 December 2016 at 9:30 a.m.

The Ifo Economic Forecast will be presented at 9:30 a.m. CET on 16 December 2016 at a press conference and will be available online at this time. read on Next Publication of the Ifo Economic Forecast: 16 December 2016 at 9:30 a.m.

Next Internet Publication Date of the Ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany: 21 December 2016 11 a.m.

The Ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany and Saxony will be presented on 21 December 2016, 11 a.m., at a Ifo Dresden press conference and will be available online at this time. read on Next Internet Publication Date of the Ifo Economic Forecast for East Germany: 21 December 2016 11 a.m.

Latest releases

  1. Eurozone Economic Outlook October 2016

    Modest expansion lying ahead

    Oct 11, 2016: The expansion of Eurozone gross domestic product lost some momentum in Q2 2016 (+0.3%), as investment and private consumption slowed down, partly due to weather related factors. Economic activity is expected to accelerate slightly over the forecast horizon (+0.3% in Q3 2016 then +0.4% in Q4 2016 and Q1 2017) on the back of a strengthening of external demand and a stabilization of private-consumption growth. Details

  2. Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2016

    German economy on track – economic policy needs to be realigned

    Sep 29, 2016: The German economy is experiencing a moderate recovery: the GDP is expected to grow by 1.9 percent this year, 1.4 percent next year, and 1.6 percent in 2018. Over the course of the forecast period, capacity utilization will be somewhat higher than the long-term average. Nevertheless, corporate investment’s contribution to the current upswing is minimal: the global economy is generating only minor stimulating effects, which means that exports are only increasing moderately; as well, the extremely low interest rates on the capital market are likely to reflect not only the current monetary policy, but also the low growth expectations. All of these factors are inhibiting equipment investment, and thus consumption continues to be the main growth driver. Private consumption is benefiting from the sustained increase in employment; the high expenditure for housing and integrating the refugees is still having a strong impact on public spending. Residential construction is getting a boost from the low interest rates. Details

  3. Eurozone Economic Outlook July 2016

    Recovery Continues Amid Huge Political Risks

    Jul 12, 2016: UK referendum increased uncertainty about the economic growth prospects in the Eurozone: while the short run impact on the activity of the area, via the trade channel, should be limited until the fourth quarter of 2016, the medium term effect strongly depends upon future agreements between UK and EU countries. In this setting, Eurozone real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 0.3% in Q2, slightly accelerate to 0.4% in Q3 and then slowdown to 0.3% in Q4. The average GDP growth for 2016 is set to be 1.6%. Details

  4. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2016/2017 (28 June 2016)

    Eastern German Economy Sees Steady Growth

    Jun 28, 2016: The price-adjusted gross domestic product of Eastern Germany (including Berlin) will grow by 1.7 percent in 2016 and by 1.3 percent in 2017. In the Free State of Saxony real economic output is expected to rise by 1.8 percent this year and to grow at the marginally slower rate of 1.5 percent in 2017. Strong domestic demand, and especially private consumption, continues to boost the economy. Further positive stimuli include refugee migration, as well as rising demand from German manufacturing over the course of the year. Against this background, levels of employment will continue to rise in the Eastern German and Saxon labour market. Details

  5. Ifo Economic Forecast 16 June 2016

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2016/2017: Upturn in Germany Enters Second Half

    Jun 16, 2016: The robust upturn seen in the German economy since 2014 will continue. The Ifo Institute expects real gross domestic product to grow by 1.8% this year and by 1.6% in 2017. This would further reduce the output gap, which will almost close next year. Details


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