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Forecasts

Twice a year the Ifo Institute publishes the Ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Euro-zone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (Ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Latest releases

  1. Ifo Economic Forecast 16 June 2016

    Ifo Economic Forecast 2016/2017: Upturn in Germany Enters Second Half

    Jun 16, 2016: The robust upturn seen in the German economy since 2014 will continue. The Ifo Institute expects real gross domestic product to grow by 1.8% this year and by 1.6% in 2017. This would further reduce the output gap, which will almost close next year. Details

  2. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2016

    Upturn Remains Moderate – Economic Policy Lacks Growth Orientation

    Apr 14, 2016: The German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.6 percent this year and by 1.5 percent in 2017. The upturn will be driven by private consumption, which will benefit from continued employment growth, sizeable increases in wage and transfer income and purchasing power gains thanks to lower energy prices. Fiscal policy will also be expansively oriented, partly due to rising costs related to refugee immigration. While investment in construction is also expected to expand markedly, corporate investment activity will remain subdued. Against a background of only gradual world economic recovery and strong domestic demand, no positive economic stimulus is expected from foreign trade. Public budgets will post significant surpluses in the forecasting period. Failing to use this room for manoeuvre to promote growth, as seen in recent years, is not a sustainable path. Details

  3. Eurozone Economic Outlook April 2016

    Consumption supports the recovery

    Apr 12, 2016: In a lacklustre international environment, the Eurozone is expected to remain resilient and continue to recover at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the first three quarters of 2016. The driving force behind this development is a dynamic domestic demand. An upturn in household purchasing power is expected to support private consumption, stimulated by the past drop in oil prices. The massive influx of refugees, mainly in Germany, is expected to raise public consumption and transfers. Details

  4. Eurozone Economic Outlook January 2016

    The Recovery Continues Amid Risks

    Jan 12, 2016: The recovery in the Eurozone is expected to continue at a moderate pace. Real gross domestic product is estimated to increase by 1.5% in 2015, and by 0.4% in comparison to the previous quarters in both Q1 and Q2 2016. Private consumption is set to continue to be the main driver behind the upturn, stimulated by a renewed drop in oil prices and higher earnings on labour. In addition, expansive stimuli from fiscal policy, mainly in Germany, are expected to raise public consumption. Details

  5. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony (16 December 2015)

    Domestic Forces Strengthen Eastern German Economy

    Dec 16, 2015: Eastern Germany’s real economic output (including Berlin) will grow strongly by 1.6 percent this year and by 1.8 percent in the year ahead. Growth in Saxony of 1.9 percent in 2015 and 2.0 percent in 2016 is expected to be slightly higher than the Eastern Germany average. Domestic forces will continue to support the upswing, and especially private consumption. There will also be strong growth in public sector services over the forecasting period due to the migration of refugees. In all this, the increase in employment in the eastern German and Saxon labour market is expected to continue. Details


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