Chinese GDP Statistics: Cum Grano Salis

Carsten A. Holz has examined the quality of Chinese GDP statistics and finds no compelling evidence of data falsification. In a recent study, he conducted a range of double-checks of the official data and found no signs of wrong-doing. He concludes that the official Chinese GDP statistics may not be perfectly reliable, i.e., they come with a relatively large margin of error, but data falsification is no more an issue in China than it is in some of the developed world.

Mr Holz' general field of interest is the Chinese economy, in particular issues of economic development and growth. In addition to the quality of Chinese statistics, his recent research includes labour productivity, capital productivity and wage developments in China. Publications include monographs on financial sector reform and state-owned enterprise reform, and journal articles on economic policy implementation in China, monetary policy and rural finance, quality of Chinese statistics, economic fragmentation and growth in China, the production of data on the Chinese economy (comparable prices across provinces, capital stock series, monthly industrial output data) and the evolution of institutions of wage determination

While visiting CESifo, he will continue work on an ongoing project on the measurement of investment and the calculation of sectoral physical capital stock measures for China.

Carsten Holz, Professor of Economics, received his PhD in Economics from Cornell University in 1995. He joined the faculty of the Social Science Division at the Hong Kong University of Science & Technology in 1995. While at HKUST, he has spent several academic years visiting and teaching at other institutions (Harvard, Stanford, Princeton, USC, Cornell). He has also been a research visitor at a number of institutions, including the Bank of Finland, the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS, Berlin) and the Cowles Foundation (Yale). He is currently collaborating with the China Center for Human Capital and Labor Market Research (Beijing) on a project measuring provincial physical capital stock in China.