Overconfidence and Political Extremism

The model of overconfidence in beliefs designed by Erik Snowberg and Pietro Ortoleva, published in the American Economic Review (105/2: 504-35), predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout and stronger partisan identification. The model also makes nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society. The researchers tested these predictions using unique data that measure the overconfidence and standard political characteristics of a nationwide sample of over 3,000 adults, and their numerous predictions found strong support in these data. They are now following up this work with the world's largest incentivised survey, which seeks to understand the deep connections between behavioural traits and biases and political attributes.

Erik Snowberg's current focus, and what he hopes to further while at CESifo, is on behavioural political economy: incorporating the insights of behavioural economics into political economy to gain a greater understanding of the forces that drive economic policy. Mr Snowberg has other research interests as well. In one area, he uses economic theory to design better experiments for field trials in development and medicine. He is also an expert on using prediction markets to understand and hedge against political risk.

Erik Snowberg is Professor of Economics and Political Science at the California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, where he has been since finishing his PhD at the Stanford Graduate School of Business in 2008. He also holds a bachelor of science (SB) from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Since 2011, Mr Snowberg has been a Faculty Research Fellow in the Political Economy Group for the National Bureau of Economic Research.