Give Me Your Genetically Huddled Masses

Germany is currently struggling to solve two major immigration issues: an unprecedented wave of asylum seekers on the one hand, and an equally unprecedented need for skilled immigrants to secure its economic prosperity on the other. In neither front is Germany having much success.

While steadfastly abiding by its commitment to offer shelter to those in need, the size and speed of the new arrivals is putting a strain on its finances and its social capacity to cope. But this is a temporary problem. The wave will eventually recede. The other need, to attract immigrants equipped with certain skills, will remain for many years to come, given the country’s demographic outlook, dominated by too few children and a large greying population.

But Germany, while a much sought-after destination country, is still far less successful than, say, Canada, Switzerland, Australia or the US in attracting the skills it needs. The language barrier, perhaps? Maybe. But a new CESifo study by Tim Krieger, Laura Renner and Jens Ruhose points at another, rather surprising, factor: genetic distance between Germany and the prospective source countries.

Genetic distance, as the authors point out, has been found to provide a good proxy for deeply rooted cultural traits, norms and beliefs of societies: it is a summary measure of very long-term divergence in intergenerationally transmitted traits across populations. Both culture and genetics consist of information which is accumulated and passed on from generation to generation. They evolve similarly, through fission and adaptation, and are passed on through inheritance.

It has been amply demonstrated that the closer societies are in terms of cultural traits, the more easily they can interact, facilitating the diffusion of knowledge across population boundaries. Intuitively, this could explain the easier interaction between the USA and Canada than between the USA and Mexico, for instance.

The authors’ insight is then that genetic distance can also serve as a significant predictor of migrant selection between country pairs. Their thinking is that the individual cost of migrating is higher when the cultural differences to surmount are higher. This, in turn, would lead to greater selectivity as genetic distance increases, meaning that when the genetic, and therefore, cultural distance is large enough, more skilled than non-skilled migrants will actually make the decision to migrate, since high-skilled individuals are more likely to cross cultural borders, being better equipped to overcome the cultural differences. Put differently, a larger genetic distance is associated with lower migration of low-skilled individuals.

To test their hypothesis, they looked at education-specific bilateral migrant stocks for the 15 main destination countries and 85 source countries. The destination countries include Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Spain, Sweden, the UK, and the US.

They next used a measure of genetic distance already available in the literature, in which a distance of zero would mean a genetically, and culturally, homogeneous population. Between the USA and Germany, for example, there is a genetic distance of 352 points; between the USA and Mexico, 904 points, USA and Thailand, 920 points, and USA and Turkey, 927 points.

After subjecting their data to a series of regressions and robustness checks, they find that genetic distance is indeed a predictor for the selectivity of migration, with greater distance associated with a higher proportion of high-skilled migrants. They painstakingly tested the effects of geographic barriers, including even the differences in average temperature and precipitation, language barriers, the presence of a diaspora or migrant network in the destination country, religious and industry similarities, the skill premium (how much higher is the monetary reward for skills in the destination country), and even visa restrictions.

Their findings held. But they also found that the average result is driven by country pairs above the median genetic distance. Pairs below the median do not show selected migration stocks. This means that genetic distance has to be large enough to pose an education-specific migration cost. Or, seen from a different angle, migrants of all skills levels are open to a different, but not too culturally distant environment compared to their home country.

The study will help the German immigration gurus better understand what factors, other than economic desperation and the search for physical safety now making the news, influence the decision to migrate. Maybe they will learn to better tailor their quest for attracting talent from around the globe. And maybe, it will show the population at large that not everything with “genetic” in the label is bad for you.

Tim Krieger, Laura Renner and Jens Ruhose: Genetic Distance and International Migrant Selection, CESifo Working Paper No. 5453

Other CESifo Working Papers by Tim Krieger
Other CESifo Working Papes dealing with migration