Working Paper

Did the Black Death Cause Economic Development by "Inventing" Fertility Restriction?

Jeremy Edwards, Sheilagh Ogilvie
CESifo, Munich, 2018

CESifo Working Paper No. 7016

Voigtländer and Voth argue that the Black Death shifted England towards pastoral agriculture, increasing wages for unmarried women, thereby delaying female marriage, lowering fertility, and unleashing economic growth. We show that this argument does not hold. Its crucial assumption is inconsistent with the evidence: women wanting to do pastoral work after the Black Death did not have to remain unmarried, so improved pastoral opportunities did not necessitate later marriage. There is no consensus that late female marriage emerged after the Black Death. Furthermore, the relationship between pastoralism and female marriage age in England provides no support for this argument.

CESifo Category
Fiscal Policy, Macroeconomics and Growth
Empirical and Theoretical Methods
JEL Classification: E020, J120, J130, N130, N330