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Forecasts

Twice a year the ifo Institute publishes the ifo Economic Forecast on the development of the German and the world economy for the current and the subsequent year. Additionally, the institute participates in the so-called Joint Economic Forecast of leading German economics institutes. The Eurozone Economic Outlook is a joint initiative of three leading European economic institutes (ifo Institute in Munich, INSEE in Paris and Istat in Rome) to produce short-term forecasts for GDP, consumption, industrial production and inflation in the euro zone (quarterly). A European economic forecast is presented once a year in the Report on the European Economy by the EEAG (European Economic Advisory Group at CESifo)

Latest releases

  1. Joint Economic Forecast Spring 2017

    Upturn in Germany strengthens in spite of global economic risks

    Apr 12, 2017: The German economy is already in the fifth year of a moderate upturn. Capacity utilization is gradually increasing, and aggregate production capacities are now likely to have slightly exceeded their normal utilisation levels. However, cyclical dynamics remain low compared to earlier periods of recoveries, as consumption expenditures, which do not exhibit strong fluctuations, have been the main driving force so far. In addition, net migration increases potential output, counteracting a stronger capacity tightening. Details

  2. Eurozone Economic Outlook April 2017

    Eurozone Economic Outlook: Solid growth prospects

    Apr 6, 2017: Business indicators of the euro area have been positively oriented in the last months, suggesting a continuation of the recovery process. In Q1 2017 the Eurozone economy is expected to grow at a similar pace as registered at the end of 2016 (+0.4%), then slightly faster in Q2 (+0.5%) before returning to +0.4% in Q3 2017. Details

  3. Eurozone Economic Outlook January 2017

    A little faster

    Jan 11, 2017: The Eurozone GDP would appear to have increased by +0.4% in Q4 2016 and is expected to keep growing at the same pace over H1 2017. The economic activity should be driven by steady growth in private consumption and public spending. Favourable labour market conditions as well as increasing nominal wages are expected to buoy up disposable income, despite an upturn in inflation which slowly erodes purchasing power. Moreover, investment should become slightly more dynamic, based on the continuously good financing conditions. The global economy recovery, from both advanced economies and emerging countries, should also foster external demand. Details

  4. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2016/2017 (December 2016)

    Eastern German Economy Maintains Momentum, but International Uncertainty Dampens Dynamic

    Dec 21, 2016: The eastern German economy is experiencing a moderate upturn. Price-adjusted economic output will increase by 1.6 percent in 2016 and 1.3 percent in 2017. In the Free State of Saxony price-adjusted gross domestic product is expected to grow by 1.7 percent this year and by 1.4 percent in 2017. The dynamic seen in recent months will nevertheless be curbed by the recent surge in international insecurity. Positive stimuli will come from the domestic economy, and especially from the consistently high level of residential construction activity, and strong consumption demand from both consumers and the public service sector. Details

  5. Ifo Economic Forecast 16 December 2016

    Ifo Economic Forecast for 2016-2018: Germany’s Robust Economy Faces a Year of Uncertain International Economic Policy

    Dec 16, 2016: The robust upturn experienced by the German economy as of 2013 is expected to continue. The Ifo Institute expects real gross domestic product to grow by 1.9 percent this year. This figure will drop to 1.5% in 2017, purely due to the lower number of working days in the calendar year compared to 2016. In 2018 real gross domestic product is expected to increase by 1.7 percent. Details


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