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German Government Reforms for Mini- and Midi-Jobs Exacerbate Part-Time Trap for Women
Germany’s traffic light coalition is planning reforms regarding mini- and midi-jobs and income tax that will exacerbate the part-time trap, which primarily affects women as second earners. This is the result of new calculations by the ifo Institute. “While the reforms would have a positive impact on labor market participation overall, it is predominantly men who would increase their hours of work. Women, on the other hand, would reduce their working hours and work part-time jobs even more often,” says ifo researcher Maximilian Blömer. Moreover, the reforms would cost the government EUR 6.5 billion.
Business Climate in Germany’s Chemical Industry Brightens Only Marginally
The ifo Business Climate in Germany’s chemical industry has improved only slightly. The indicator climbed from minus 28.1 points in June to minus 25 points, according to the ifo Institute survey. The industry’s assessment of its business situation and expectations remained extremely negative at -26.1 and -23.9 points, respectively. “Although the rapid decline in the chemical industry has stopped for now, there’s no sign of a recovery happening any time soon,” says industry expert Anna Wolf of the ifo Institute.
Fewer German Companies Plan to Increase Prices
Fewer German companies are planning to raise their prices in the next three months, finds the ifo Institute’s latest survey. For the economy as a whole, the ifo price expectations fell to 35.4 points in January, down from 40.1 points in December. Companies in manufacturing in particular, but also in the service sector, construction, and trade, are planning fewer price increases.
Progression de l'indice ifo du climat des affaires (Mai 2022)
Le moral des entreprises allemandes s'est amélioré. L'indice ifo du climat des affaires est monté de 91,9 points en avril à 93,0 points au mois de mai. Les entreprises se sont déclarées plus satisfaites avant tout de la marche actuelle de leurs activités. Leurs attentes pour les prochains mois n'ont cependant guère changé. Elles restent prudentes. Malgré ses soucis liés à l'inflation, aux pénuries de matières premières et à la guerre en Ukraine, l'économie allemande fait cependant preuve d'une bonne solidité et ne montre encore aucun signe précurseur d'une récession.
Germans and Members of Parliament Systematically Misjudge Student Performance in Their States
Germans and members of parliament systematically misjudge student performance in their states. This is the finding of a representative survey conducted by the ifo Institute together with the Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) and the Technical University of Munich (TUM). Assessments tend to be too pessimistic in states with good student performance and too optimistic in states with weak student performance.
ifo Business Climate Remains Gloomy (October 2022)
Sentiment in the German economy continues to be grim. The ifo Business Climate Index dipped to 84.3 points in October, following 84.4 points in September. Companies were less satisfied with their current business. Their expectations improved, but they are still worried about the coming months. The German economy is facing a difficult winter.
Institut ifo : l'industrie automobile allemande optimiste sur une amélioration de ses affaires
L'ambiance sur le marché allemand de la construction et de la sous-traitance automobiles est plutôt maussade, voire mauvaise. En janvier, l'évaluation de la situation actuelle n'a guère été plus favorable que le mois précédent, passant à –7,5 points après – 8,5 points au mois de décembre. C'est ce qui ressort de la toute dernière enquête conjoncturelle de l'Institut ifo. Les attentes ont faiblement progressé, atteignant + 11,6 points contre + 11,2 points au mois de décembre. « Prudemment optimistes, les constructeurs automobiles espèrent que la demande s'animera après la fin du confinement. La montée actuelle du niveau des stocks s'explique aussi par cette attente », soutient Klaus Wohlrabe, le directeur des enquêtes conjoncturelles de l'Institut ifo.
ifo President Clemens Fuest Criticizes ECB’s New Bond Purchases
ifo President Clemens Fuest has criticized the resumption of bond purchases by the European Central Bank (ECB). “These purchases cannot be expected to have a noticeable impact on inflation,” he said on Friday in Munich. “However, they do reinforce the distortions in the capital markets. They also entail the risk of speculative bubbles forming. The ECB is attempting to raise inflation with a crowbar.”
Une guerre douanière élargie causerait des dommages considérables à la Chine et aux Etats-Unis
Une guerre douanière élargie causerait des dommages considérables à la Chine et aux États-Unis. Les exportations chinoises vers les États-Unis pourraient chuter de 171,3 milliards d'euros, les exportations américaines vers la Chine de 51 milliards d‘euros si les deux parties imposaient des droits de douane de 25 pourcent sur tous les produits. C'est le résultat d'une nouvelle étude des chercheurs de l'Institut ifo Gabriel Felbermayr et Marina Steininger pour le réseau de recherche EconPol Europe. Les négociations entre les deux pays devraient être terminées d'ici le vendredi 1er mars. "La Chine perdrait beaucoup plus en termes absolus et relatifs que les Etats-Unis", disent Felbermayr et Steininger. 25 pour cent des droits de douane réduiraient la production économique américaine de 9,5 milliards d'euros, de la Chine même de 30,4 milliards d'euros.
ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Unchanged
The ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany remained unchanged in the frosty month of January, holding steady at 101.9 points. The survey participants were noticeably more satisfied with their current business, but their expectations for the coming six months weakened noticeably.
Situation in the German Automotive Industry at a Three-Year High, but Expectations Are Falling
Business was much better for German car manufacturers and their suppliers in May than the previous month. The indicator for the industry’s business situation rose from plus 23.7 points in April to plus 36.6 points. This is its highest level since September 2018. “At the moment, business is still very good,” says Klaus Wohlrabe, Head of Surveys at ifo, “but dark clouds are beginning to gather, probably because of the chip shortage.” And automotive managers’ optimism of the past few months has evaporated for now: the corresponding indicator dropped from plus 23.2 in April to minus 1.4 points – its lowest level since May 2020.
Les économistes tablent sur un recul de l’inflation mondiale
Les économistes du monde entier anticipent une baisse des taux d’inflation dans les années à venir. C’est ce qui ressort de l’Economic Experts Survey (EES), un sondage trimestriel réalisé par l’Institut ifo et l’Institut de politique écono-mique suisse IWP. D’après ce sondage, le taux d’inflation mondial atteindra 5,0% en 2024, avant de retomber à 4,4% en 2025 et à 3,6% en 2027. Cette année, l’inflation sera de 3,2% en France, de 3,7% en Belgique et de 2,0% en Suisse. « Les prévisions concernant l’inflation sont beaucoup plus basses cette année que l’année dernière », constate Niklas Potrafke, chercheur de l’Institut Ifo. Pour l’Allemagne, ils tablent sur 3,4%.
Uncertainty Dampens the Mood of the Self-Employed in Germany
Uncertainty among the self-employed in Germany has increased. As a result, the business climate for this segment has deteriorated, according to the latest ifo survey in March (“Jimdo-ifo Business Climate Index for the Self-Employed”). The index fell to -15.6 points*, down from -14.6 points* in February. “Contrary to the situation in the other sectors of the economy, the self-employed are experiencing increasing doubt,” says ifo expert Katrin Demmelhuber.
ifo Business Climate Eastern Germany: The Upward Trend Continues
Sentiment among eastern German companies continued to improve in August. The ifo Business Climate Index for the entire regional economy in eastern Germany climbed from 92.4 points to 94.6 points. This increase was mainly driven by the current business situation in August. At the same time, the companies surveyed raised their business expectations somewhat compared to the previous month. The picture was mixed across different sectors.
Situation in the German Automotive Industry Worsens
The situation in the German automotive industry has worsened. The ifo indicator slid to 9.6 points in November, down from 17.4 points in October. The downward trend is primarily due to the situation for suppliers. “Automotive suppliers gave much bleaker assessments of their current situation than manufacturers,” says Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies. The index for suppliers fell to minus 23.0 points.
ifo Institut: Mehr Ehrenamt und weniger Populismus bei lokalen Wurzeln
Bürger, die sich mit ihrer lokalen Gemeinde stark verbunden fühlen, gehen im Durchschnitt häufiger zur Kommunalwahl, interessieren sich stärker für Politik, wählen seltener populistische Parteien und engagieren sich häufiger ehrenamtlich. Dies ist das Ergebnis einer Studie des ifo Instituts Dresden im Auftrag der Friedrich-Naumann-Stiftung für die Freiheit.
Business Climate in the German Automotive Industry Brightens
The business climate in Germany’s automotive industry has improved slightly. In September, the indicator rose to -14.7 points, up from -18.1 points* in August. “German automakers and their suppliers are satisfied with their current situation, but their expectations are still at rock bottom,” says Oliver Falck, Director of the ifo Center for Industrial Organization and New Technologies.
ifo Institute Cuts Its Growth Forecast for Germany to 2.2–3.1 Percent
The Russian attack on Ukraine is curtailing economic growth and accelerating inflation in Germany. “We now expect growth to reach no more than between 2.2 and 3.1 percent this year,” says Timo Wollmershäuser, Head of Forecasts at ifo. In December, the ifo Institute had forecast 3.7 percent growth for this year. Conversely, inflation is likely to rise faster than previously expected. ifo now expects it to reach between 5.1 and 6.1 percent, rather than the 3.3 percent it forecast back in December.
Residential Construction Cancellations Still Numerous in Germany
Many projects are still being canceled in Germany’s residential construction sector. The share of companies affected stood at 11.5 percent in July, down from 12.3 percent the previous month. In May, the share was as high as 15.8 percent. This is a finding of surveys by the ifo Institute. “Order books are still full to bursting. But skyrocketing construction costs, higher interest rates, and diminished subsidy options are putting more and more projects in jeopardy. We have seen a wave of cancellations since April. All this is pushing the German government’s ambitious targets for new construction into the distant future,” says ifo researcher Felix Leiss.
More Supply Bottlenecks in German Food Retail
The proportion of food retailers in Germany with supply problems has increased. In June, 79.7% reported bottlenecks, up from 65.8% in May, finds the latest ifo Institute survey. “Retailers are still in difficult negotiations with manufacturers on prices and conditions for certain goods. Supply freezes by manufacturers and the delisting of certain products by retailers are some of the ways the players are exerting pressure,” says ifo expert Patrick Höppner.