Johannes Mayr

(born 22.07.1978)

Economist

Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Business Cycle Analyses and Surveys
Poschingerstraße 5
81679 München

Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1228
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1462
E-Mail: 101-100-46-111-102-105-64-114-121-97-109
Website: http://www.cesifo-group.de/mayr-j

Mayr Johannes

Main focus:

Forecasting, Time Series Analysis, Econometrics, International Business Cycles (US)

Employed at the Ifo Institute since 2006.

Academic Background:

10/1999	-	11/2005	Diplom-Volkswirt (equiv. M.A. in Economics) at the University of Augsburg, Germany
10/1999	-	11/2005	Diplom-Kaufmann (equiv. MBA) at the University of Augsburg, Germany
08/2001	-	09/2002	Exchange student at Universidade de Coimbra, Portugal

Languages:

English, Portuguese, French

Professional Experience:

01/2005	-	03/2005	Internship with ifo Institute for Economic Research (Business Cycle Analyses and Financial Markets)
10/2003	-	12/2005	Freelancer at TNS Infratest (Financial Markets), Munich
08/2003	-	10/2003	Internship with TNS Infratest (Financial Markets), Munich
09/2002	-	10/2002	Internship with Ansorge Logistik, Singen

Scholarships, awards and prizes:

2008	Prize for outstanding success in the management of contract studies (Ifo Institute)

Projects

Kazakhstan - Methods to develop an Early Warning System for a resource-rich transformation economy (2007 – 2009)

Ifo Economic Forecasts (since 2006)

Joint Economic Forecast (since 2006)

EEAG European Economic Advisory Group: Report on the European Economy

Makroökonomische Mittelfristprognosen: Linde AG

Publications

Articles in non-refereed journals

2009

Mayr, Johannes (with Kai Carstensen, Steffen Henzel, Klaus Wohlrabe), "IFOCAST: Methoden der ifo-Kurzfristprognose", ifo Schnelldienst 62 (23), 2009, 15-28 ( Abstract )

Mayr, Johannes (with Kai Carstensen, Wolfgang Nierhaus, Oliver Huelsewig, Klaus Abberger, Christian Breuer, Steffen Elstner, Steffen Henzel, Wolfgang Meister, Georg Paula, Anna Stangl, Timo Wollmershaeuser), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2009/2010: Abschwung setzt sich fort", ifo Schnelldienst 62 (12), 2009, 11-57 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Kai Carstensen, Wolfgang Nierhaus, Oliver Huelsewig, Klaus Abberger, Teresa Buchen, Christian Breuer, Steffen Elstner, Steffen Henzel, Nikolay Hristov, Michael Kleemann, Wolfgang Meister, Georg Paula, Anna Stangl, Klaus Wohlrabe, Timo Wollmershaeuser), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2010: Deutsche Wirtschaft ohne Dynamik", ifo Schnelldienst 62 (24), 2009, 17-64 ( Abstract )

2008

Mayr, Johannes (with K. Carstensen, K. Abberger, Chr. Breuer, T. Buettner, S. Elstner, S. Henzel, W. Meister, T. Wollmershaeuser, Nierhaus W., Huelsewig O., R. Hild), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2009: Deutsche Wirtschaft in der Rezession", ifo Schnelldienst 61 (24), 2008, 21-69 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with K. Carstensen, W. Nierhaus, K. Abberger, S. Elstner, S. Henzel, O. Huelsewig, W. Meister, D. Ulbricht, T. Wollmershaeuser), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2008/2009: Aufschwung geht zu Ende", ifo Schnelldienst 61 (12), 2008, 09-54 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Jan Grossarth-Maticek), "Medienberichte als Konjunkturindikator", ifo Schnelldienst 61 (07), 2008, 17-29 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes, "The Financial Crisis in Japan – Are There Similarities to the Current Situation?", CESifo Forum 9 (4), 2008, 64-68 ( Download )

2007

Mayr, Johannes (with K. Carstensen, W. Nierhaus, S. Henzel, O. Huelsewig, E. Langmantel, W. Meister, M. Ruschinski, H.-W. Sinn, A. Stangl, D. Ulbricht, T. Wollmershaeuser), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2008: Konjunktur verliert an Fahrt", ifo Schnelldienst 60 (24), 2007, 09-58 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with G. Flaig, W. Nierhaus, S. Henzel, O. Huelsewig, E. Langmantel, W. Meister, M. Ruschinski, D. Ulbricht, T. Wollmershaeuser, I. Becker), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2007/2008: Aufschwung mit niedrigerem Tempo", ifo Schnelldienst 60 (12), 2007, 08-53 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Oliver Huelsewig, Dirk Ulbricht), "Zur Evaluierung von VAR-Prognosen", ifo Schnelldienst 60 (07), 2007, 19-25 ( Abstract / Download )

2006

Mayr, Johannes (with G. Flaig, W. Nierhaus, S. Henzel, O. Huelsewig, E. Langmantel, W. Meister, M. Ruschinski, D. Ulbricht, T. Wollmershaeuser, I. Becker), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2007: Konjunkturelle Auftriebskräfte bleiben stark", ifo Schnelldienst 59 (24), 2006, 17-57 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Gebhard Flaig, Wolfgang Nierhaus, Ina Becker, Erich Langmantel, Monika Ruschinski, Dirk Ulbricht, Timo Wollmershaeuser, Henzel Steffen, Huelsewig Oliver, Meister Wolfgang), "ifo Konjunkturprognose 2006/2007: Aufschwung setzt sich fort", ifo Schnelldienst 59 (12), 2006, 19-54 ( Abstract / Download )

2005

Mayr, Johannes (with Harm Bandholz, Gebhard Flaig), "Wachstum und Konjunktur in OECD-Ländern. Eine langfristige Perspektive", ifo Schnelldienst 58 (04) , 2005, 28-36 ( Abstract / Download )

Working Papers

2009

Mayr, Johannes (with Marc Gronwald, Sultan Orazbayev), "Estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the Kazakh economy", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 81, 2009 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Steffen Henzel), "The Virtues of VAR Forecast Pooling – A DSGE Model Based Monte Carlo Study", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 65, 2009 ( Abstract / Download )

2008

Mayr, Johannes (with Oliver Huelsewig, Timo Wollmershaeuser), "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information", CESifo Working Paper Nr. 2371 , 2008 ( Abstract / Download )

2007

Mayr, Johannes (with Oliver Huelsewig, Stéphane Sorbe), "Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 46, 2007 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Dirk Ulbricht), "Log versus level in VAR forecasting: 16 Million empirical answers - expect the unexpected", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 42, 2007 ( Abstract / Download )

Mayr, Johannes (with Dirk Ulbricht), "VAR Model Averaging for Multi-Step Forecasting", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 48, 2007 ( Abstract / Download )

Teaching

"Empirische Zeitreihenökonometrie", Exercises, University of Munich | Lecture notes (in German)

Presentations at International Conferences

Johannes Mayr, "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP – Optimal Pooling of Information", Royal Economic Society 2009 Annual Conference , 20 - 22 Apr. 2009, Guildford, England

Johannes Mayr, Jahrestagung des Vereins für Socialpolitik, Sept. 2008, Graz

Johannes Mayr, "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP – Optimal Pooling of Information", Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (ESAM), 2008, Wellington, Neuseeland

Johannes Mayr, "Forecasting Euro Area Real GDP: Optimal Pooling of Information?", EABCN and CEPR Workshop: Using Euro Area Data: Issues and Consequences for Economic Analysis, 26 - 28 Mar. 2008, Cambridge

Johannes Mayr, "Short term forecasts of euro area real GDP. Are economic weights adequate for aggregating national to area-wide indicators?", DIW Macroeconometric Workshop, 07 - 08 Dec. 2007, Berlin

Johannes Mayr, "Assessing the Forecast Properties of the CESifo World Economic Climate Indicator: Evidence for the Euro Area", Ifo Conference on Survey Data in Economics - Methodology and Applications, 19 - 20 Oct. 2007, München

Johannes Mayr, "Log versus level in VAR forecasting: 16 Million empirical answers - expect the unexpected", 41st Annual Meetings of the Canadian Economics Association, 01 – 03 June 2007, Halifax, Nova Scotia