The Ifo Business Climate Index for industry and trade in Germany has fallen significantly in June. The firms have assessed their current business situation clearly less favourably than in the previous month, and they are more sceptical regarding the six-month outlook. The sharp hike in oil prices is evidently becoming an increasing burden on the German economy.
In manufacturing the business climate has worsened significantly. The firms have assessed both their current situation as well as the six-month business outlook considerably less favourably than in May. They expect weaker stimulus from export business in the coming months, but despite the strong euro, they do not fear a slump in exports. Increases in employment will be weaker, according to the survey responses.
In the construction industry the business climate has improved somewhat. For the fourth time in suc-cession, the firms have assessed their current business situation more favourably. Their expectations with regard to the six-month outlook continue to be cautiously optimistic. In wholesaling and in retailing, however, the business climate index has fallen. Although retailers have assessed their current situation more favourably than in May, they are clearly more cautious regarding business in the coming six months. Wholesalers are clearly less satisfied with the current business situation, although their expec-tations for the coming months are less sceptical.
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