Henrik Enderlein, Hertie School of Governance, Berlin, fears that the expectations linked with the election of Barack Obama as the new US president are too high. When he assumes office Obama will have a hardly manageable economic challenge so that economic policy will become almost the sore leitmotiv of the first years of his administration and he will do everything so that the US economy is in a solid upswing by spring 2012. For Europe this means that Obama will not undertake anything that could run counter to this goal. For this reason, one should not expect any "great multilateral momentum in American economic policy". Also Detlef Junker, Center for American Studies, University of Heidelberg, warns against too high hopes. For him it is quite probable that in spite of the euphoria over the election of Obama, the transatlantic relationship in the medium term could be marked by a crisis of disappointed hopes. The structural differences that will continue to exist also after 20 January 2009, which are also reflected in the expectations and mentality of the majority of Europeans and Americans, will limit governments' scope for action. Stormy Mildner, SWP Berlin, points particularly to the reform of the international financial market architecture and to energy and climate policies as the fields in which the Europeans can expect more transatlantic cooperation. To what extent Obama will meet these expectations remains to be seen, however. Katharina Gnath and Josef Braml, German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), Berlin, see above all "difficult times ahead for multilateral free trade".
Klaus Abberger and Wolfgang Nierhaus
The Ifo Business Climate, the most important indicator for economic activity in Germany, is defined as a mean value of the two components of "current business situation" and "business expectations for the next six months". In 1993 the Ifo Institute presented for the first time the cyclical connection between the two components of the business climate in a four-quadrant economic-activity scheme: the Ifo Business-Cycle Clock. Unlike the usual depiction of indicators along a time axis, the economic activity in this diagram - visualized as a situation/expectation graph - moves clockwise in a circular form, since the expectation indicator leads the current situation indicator. This article examines the most important qualities of the Ifo Business-Cycle Clock.
Jarko Fidrmuc and Christa Hainz
Data on the Ifo credit climate, which was compiled twice annually from a special question in the Ifo Business Survey, show that German SMEs near the Austrian border have a better access to credit than other firms. Without cross border lending, the proximity to the border would be a disadvantage in terms of borrowing. Cross-border lending compensates for this disadvantage. The fact that the firms profit from proximity to the border suggest that Austrian banks have a competitive advantage.
Janina Ketterer, Jana Lippelt and Katrin Schaber
In December 2008 important steps in international climate policies are scheduled that involve the design of climate protection measures in Europe and the follow-on agreement to the Kyoto Protocol after 2012. This article provides an overview of the current state of international climate policies.
Reinhard Hild
In 2007 6.21 million motor vehicles were produced in Germany. This was a record in the history of the German automotive industry. The apex of business activity in car making was reached in the last months of 2007. Since then the incoming orders for German motor vehicle manufacturing have sunk rapidly. For 2009 a 5 percent decline in car production is expected. In terms of quantity, this would be a drop to below the production level of 2005. This estimate assumes, however, that the financial market turbulence is brought under control in 2009 and that no fundamental disturbance of global structures comes from oil prices. But even under these assumptions, a "crash" on the worldwide automotive market in 2009 cannot be ruled out.
Joachim Gürtler and Arno Städtler
In the wake of the dramatic worsening of the financial market crisis, the business climate in the German leasing sector deteriorated in October and November 2008, reaching the lowest point since the survey has been conducted for Germany as a whole. The assessments of the current business situation plunged and the business outlook is very pessimistic.
Gernot Nerb and Anna Stangl
The Ifo world economy climate continued to deteriorate in the fourth quarter of 2008. The indicator has now fallen to its lowest level in more than 20 years. The decline results particularly from the more unfavourable appraisal of the present economic situation, but also the expectations for the next six months continued to worsen. On the whole, the survey data point to a global recession.
Klaus Abberger
The Ifo Business Climate for German industry and trade deteriorated markedly in November. The firms are considerably more dissatisfied with their current business situation and again anticipate a much more unfavourable business development in the coming half year. The survey results indicate that the downturn evident for several months is now turning into a recession.
Despite all the gloom, we wish our readers a joyous Christmas and a happy and prosperous New Year.
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