In recent years, the economic influence and the importance of China have grown enormously. Hermann Remsperger, Deutsche Bundesbank, sees benefits in the stronger integration of China in the world economy, since global competition will increase, boosting productivity world-wide. On the other hand, China is also the cause of strongly growing imbalances. Berend Diekmann, Federal Ministry for Economics and Technology, also sees the development positively: "The integration of China improves the supply of goods and services world-wide." In his opinion, the country should be included to a greater extent in the international co-operation organisations. Markus Taube, University of Duisburg-Essen, points out that in the integration of China in the international division of labour Chinese firms have tended to play a more passive role: "In light of this constellation, especially the industrialised world has profited from China's reintegration into the world economy. The industrialised world's firms have been able to strengthen their competitiveness via the China factor and their consumers have been able to expand their purchasing power thanks to inexpensive imports from China." This form of integrating China in the world economy is currently undergoing decisive change. China's firms are no longer content to act as passive, dependent agents; they now want to conquer the global markets on their own. It will take some time before they are able to do this, but there is no excuse "to blissfully lean back and continue as before. Chinese firms will become part of the global oligopoly in the medium term and will actively help shape the international markets." Carsten Herrmann-Pillath, University of Witten/Herdecke, views China "as a model of an evolutionary strategy of institutional change under uncertain framework conditions, which at least at present in the global competition are proving to be extremely successful." Rüdiger Ahrend, OECD, regrets that the economic development of China is regarded very critically in general public opinion: "This is a pity since the economic development of China is making a major, positive contribution to global economic development."
Peer Steinbrück
The federal minister of finance, Peer Steinbrück, delivered the keynote address at the 58th Annual Meeting of the Ifo Institute. In his presentation, "The Fiscal and Economic Policy of the Federal Government - Reform Agenda for Germany", he discussed the success and deficits of previous reform measures. Above all he criticised that "that an optimistic attitude is generally lacking among the elites in Germany". Steinbrück emphasised the government's intention to use the additional tax revenues to reduce the debt: "The current, positive development gives us the historical opportunity, for the first time in 40 years, to break the vicious circle of saddling our children with an increasing burden of debt." His conclusion: "We don't need an overfed state but an agile state, a state that lays down the rules for fair competition - also together with our international partners - and a state that with its adequate finances has scope for future-oriented policy action."
Roland Berger
Roland Berger, chairman of the eponymous consultancy firm and participant of the panel discussion at the Ifo Annual Meeting, pointed to the challenges and dangers of globalisation but also underscored the great opportunities it offers Germany. With the convergence of economic regions, new markets emerge. German firms are well positioned in international competition. But in the political realm, the pace of reform has unfortunately lost momentum under the "Grand Coalition". If the necessary political and economic reforms are not implemented in the coming years, Germany will face the same structural problems as in the past in the course of the next three to four years."
Gernot Nerb and Manuel Birnbrich
Manufacturing continues to be the cycle-maker since Germany's exports are primarily from the manufacturing sector and since changes in the international economic environment have an early impact here. This underscores the importance of an intensive observation of economic activity in manufacturing. The current economic upswing in German manufacturing has been felt across all sectors and in numerous industry branches, not just a few. Enterprises in the sectors intermediate goods and capital goods have profited the most from the current boom. The participants of the Ifo Business Survey from the two sectors have assessed their current business situation as better than in all boom phases since 1991. In addition, nearly 30 percent of intermediate goods producers and almost a quarter of capital goods producers assess their order reserves as "good". For manufacturers of consumer goods, the upswing is noticeable albeit more reserved, and the stimulus is primarily from abroad. In the past years, the consumer goods sector has improved its competitiveness on foreign markets more effectively than the intermediate goods sector. Order reserves, however, are not as favourable, especially not for manufacturers of durable consumer goods.
Erich Gluch
The latest results of the quarterly survey that the Ifo Institute conducts among freelance architects indicate that the business situation at the beginning of the second quarter of 2007 has further improved. The surveyed architects were more satisfied with their current business situation than they were the previous quarter. The outlook was assessed somewhat less favourably.
Previous issues: 2012 | 2011 2010 | 2009 | 2008 2007 | 2006 | 2005 2004 | 2003 | 2002
RSS