Recent incidents of suspected corruption have increased in Germany. That corruption is nothing unusual in Germany is a definite possibility, according to Prof. Christian Watrin, University of Cologne: "However, as long as political and economic action are determined by the concept of an open society, pessimism is not called for". Prof. Dieter Biallas, Transparency International, is convinced "that the responsible persons in this country, under the pressure of recent events, are abandoning the idea that corruption is mainly a problem of other countries. But the impression lingers that a strong will for major reforms is still lacking and that the stance towards corruption is only reactive." Stimulus for the fight against corruption, in his opinion, must come from below, from citizens and entrepreneurs that voice the subject and contribute proposals for solutions. For Prof. Wolf-Dieter Narr, Free University of Berlin, "corrupt politics is... not a question of this or that politician's "bad" character. It is a sign that politics is deficiently organised.
Peter Nunnenkamp
The dismantling of market barriers - and EU eastern enlargement - will bring about a restructuring of production and employment in the affected countries. This structural change will induce adjustment costs that will accrue above all in production sectors and in groups of workers that lose their international competitiveness in integrated markets. Nevertheless, the wide-spread fears of the EU eastern enlargement are exaggerated. Dr. Peter Nunnenkamp, Institute for World Economy at Kiel University, shows in this article that the effects on direct investments of the present EU countries in the accession countries might be weaker than many expect. On the one hand, the highest level of direct investments has been reached, on the other hand, it is often a question of additional investments that are not at the expense of domestic exports and jobs
Gernot Nerb
In April the Ifo world economic climate indicator continued its upward trend and now lies above its long-term average. The improvement of the indicator is still based mainly on more optimistic expectations for the coming six months. However, also the evaluations of the current economic situation have improved for the first time in many months. Little has changed in the ranking of economic problems since the last survey: unemployment and demand weakness prevail almost everywhere.
Oscar-Erich Kuntze
In Greece economic activity slowed down slightly in 2001 although economic policy provided very strong impulses. The gross domestic product grew strongly, however, at a 3.8% pace. On the labor market the situation improved only marginally, with average annual unemployment standing at 10.2 %. The inflation rate was 3.7 %. In 2002, the real gross domestic product will increase by around 31/2%. On the labor market the situation will not improve much, and the unemployment rate will be virtually unchanged at 10%. Consumer prices will be around 33/4% above the level of the previous year. In 2003 the upswing in economic activity should continue, with GDP increasing by around 4%. The unemployment rate will slip back to 91/2% and consumer prices will exceed the 2002 level by around 31/4%.
Erich Langmantel
Last year for the first time since unification, Germany took in more in its external economic relations than in spent. The balance on current account closed in 2001 with a small surplus of €2.5 billion. For 2002 and 2003 an even higher surplus is expected.
Jakob von Weizsäcker and Martin Werding
According to a new study by demographers Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel, the life expectancy of women increases every year by around 89 days, the life expectancy of men by about 81 days. If this also holds true for Germany, we may see a life expectancy of 93.1 years for women and 85.9 years for men in 2050. German pension policies - and also the model computations of the Ifo Institute - have been based up to now on estimates such as "variant 2" of the 9th coordinated population estimate of the Federal Statistical Office. This scenario calls for a rise of life expectancy by 2050 of only four years above today's level of 80.5 years for women and 74.4 years for men, or 84.5 years and 78.1 years, respectively. If one replaces these assumptions in the Ifo model with the trends predicted by Oeppen and Vaupel, the basis of calculation of the development in pension contributions and pension benefits changes dramatically in the long-term: whereas the elderly dependency ratio, that is the relationship of 65 year-olds to 15-65 year-olds, increases in the Federal Statistical Office scenario from currently 25% to 48% by 2050, in the trend extrapolation scenario it rises to 64%. According to the Ifo Institute a solution for pension financing could consist in linking the pension entry age to the increase in life expectancy.
Hans G. Russ
The improvement of the business climate in west German manufacturing, construction and commerce has continued after the slight setback in April. The current business situation was judged a little less negatively; in the business expectations the optimistic voices predominated again a little more clearly. In east Germany the business climate clouded over slightly, with both the business situation and the outlook being assessed somewhat more negatively than in April.
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