The "Discussion" rubric of ifo Schnelldienst contains contributions from several experts on a current topic. The journal also presents major research results of the Institute, macroeconomic and sectoral forecasts, and the latest results of the Ifo Business Survey.
The journal is published in German language. To help non-German speakers to stay informed on the research activities of the Ifo Institute, we present a short overview of the contents of the main Ifo periodical in English.
In autumn this year reform legislation of the statutory health insurance system will be presented to the Bundestag and is scheduled to take effect on 1 January 2011. Philipp Rösler, Federal Health Minister, explains the reform steps and stresses that the reform signifies the start of a systemic change, since with a fixed percentage contribution rate and the further development of additional payments, the income-dependence of the health-care system will be reduced and transparent price signals will be given; the health-insurance funds will receive the autonomy with regard to contributions that they need to be more competitive. At the same time compensating social elements will be introduced to prevent untoward burdens. Jochen Pimpertz, Institute of the German Economy, Cologne, is not so optimistic. In his opinion, the reform model of the federal government is disappointing. Instead of a departure from income-dependent contribution-financing, at the start only the contribution rates will increase. With the increase in the contribution rate, which has already been decided, both the misdirected incentives as will as the misguided allocation will only be made greater in the wake of the contribution financing. >em>Friedrich Breyer, University, of Constance, also does not see the comprehensive reform of health-care financing that was announced in the coalition contract of October 2009. The legislation is mainly aimed at preventing the deficit in the health insurance system forecast for 2011. It will not bring more competition and more efficiency to the German health insurance system. Wolfgang Greiner, University of Bielefeld, sees a further need for reform: “As in past years, after the reform is before the next reform; health-reform policy-makers are well advised to confront the spending problem not by dirigiste interference with the price structure but by allowing the self-regulating, competitive processes to run their course.” Gebhard Kirchgässner, University of St. Gallen, criticizes among other things the increase in the employee contribution rate. This will not decouple health insurance premiums from wages but will lead to another increase in the gap between gross and net wages. The government’s goal of decoupling will thus not be achieved. What Jürgen Wasem, University of Duisburg, sees is “a mere cost containment instead of structural reforms”.
Steffen Elstner, Christian Grimme und Thomas Siemsen
For 2010 positive stimulus is once again to be expected from exports. According to a forecast by the Ifo Institute, a 10.8% increase of German exports is expected, with growth attributable to the increasing demand from the newly industrialized countries in Asia. The eurozone and the UK as traditional customers of German goods will not maintain their shares in overall German exports. Emerging economies in China, India, Brazil, Poland and Russia will increasingly influence German export growth. In order for forecasters to take into account the various developments in different markets, the Institute has developed an export demand indicator. The indicator takes into consideration the economic dynamics in the 25 most important customer countries of German goods.
Kersten Kellermann und Carsten-Henning Schlag
After the experience of the financial crisis, it is time to implement an instrument in banking supervision that protects the financial market supervisory system from potential mistakes in its application of risk-weighted capital requirements. To this end, the representatives of the G20 countries introduced a leverage ratio in September 2009. For the big Swiss banks, the Swiss financial market supervision authority implemented such a ratio already in November 2008. The leverage ratio is intended to guarantee a specific core capitalization of the banks independently of the results provided by risk measurement methods. By means of balance-sheet data of the big Swiss bank UBS, Kersten Kellermann and Carsten-Henning Schlag, Liechtenstein University, discuss the interaction of risk weighted capital requirements and the leverage ratio; as an alternative supervisory instrument they propose a base risk weighting. This base risk weighting could assume the function of a backstop by reducing the reduction of risk weighted assets by the banks and simultaneously allowing risk weighting to take effect.
Gernot Nerb und Anna Stangl
The Ifo World Economic Climate clouded over slightly in the third quarter of 2010. Although the surveyed experts assessed the present economic situation more favourably than in the first half of 2010, their expectations for the next six months are weaker. The results indicate that the recovery of world economic activity will continue in the second half of the year at a slower pace. On an international average, neither inflation nor deflation will present greater problems in the near future, according to the survey participants. In accord with the worsened outlook for economic activity, fewer WES experts than at the beginning of the year expect rising short-term and long-term interest rates in the course of the coming six months.
Johannes Pfeiffer, Luise Röpke und Jana Lippelt
The future form of the energy supply against the background of European energy and climate policies and the associated restructuring of power station units is a controversial issue, including the advantages and disadvantages of the building of new pumped-storage power stations. These are not power stations in the traditional sense. They store electricity in the form of potential energy which they can feed into the grid when needed. To do this water is pumped from a lower basin to an upper basin. To create electricity water is allowed to flow from the upper basin to the lower basin, driving turbines that generate the electricity. Opponents criticize the strong alterations of the landscape and the dangers for biodiversity but also for the groundwater. The proponents point to the major role played by energy storage for the planned expansion of renewable energy. This article provides insight into the role of pumped-storage plants against the background of the challenges of climate protection for the future energy supply.
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