This study present model calculations of the long-term effects of demographic change on the public pension scheme and public finances in Germany in light of international comparisons. The most important result of all variants of the model calculations is that the prospects for financing the public pension scheme continues to deteriorate after 2030 – the time horizon of all recent reforms. Taking this into account, pension reform must continue and increasingly be supplemented by private, funded forms of pension insurance.
This study was conducted by the department of Social Policy and Labour Markets completed in December 2002.
Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die staatlichen Alterssicherungssysteme von Martin Werding, Harald Blau ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung Band 8 München: ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 2002; 145 S., 20,- EUR. ISBN 3-88512-410-6
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