This study was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance and prepared by the Ifo departments »Social Policy and Labour Markets« and »Public Finance« and concluded in August 2004. The study presents model calculations on the long-term burden capacity of public budgets against the background of current demographic change. The results are based on calculations of public costs up to 2050 for different scenarios of the development of selected public tasks that will be affected by changes in the age structure of the -population. Included is spending in the areas of statutory pension insurance, health, education as well as unemployment insurance. A projection is also made of government revenue from social insurance contributions. The results are presented in the form of computational development of government financing and debt quotas at otherwise unchanged budget policies as well as in the form of a “burden capacity” indicators that result from employing the method developed by the OECD and the EU Economic Policy Committee.
Keywords:: Public budgets, national debt, burden capacity; demographic change; statutory pension insurance, health insurance, nursing care insurance, unemployment insurance, education.
JEL-Nr.: H 5, H 6; J 11, J 21, J 65.
Modellrechnungen zur langfristigen Tragfähigkeit der öffentlichen Finanzen Martin Werding, Anita Kaltschützifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung Band 17 München: ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, 2005; 161 S.; 25,- EUR. ISBN 3-88512-435-1
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