The graphs show the Confidence Indicator of the EU Commission for the whole EU area and separately for Germany. This EU confidence indicator is constructed as arithmetic mean of the balances of the following questions asked in the monthly business surveys:
In the case of manufacturing industry: a) production expectations for the next three months, b) assessment of the stock of unsold finished products (with inverted sign), c) assessment of the current backlog of total orders (domestic and foreign).
In the case of construction: a) assessment of current order books and b) employment expectations for the next (three) months.
In the case of retail trade: a) assessment of the current business situation, b) business expectations for the coming (six) months and c) assessment of stocks (with inverted sign).
In the case of services: a) assessment of the current business situation, b) assessment of the current as well as of c) the expected evolution of demand.
For comparison also the corresponding ifo business climate is shown in the graphs. The ifo business climate is constructed as geometric mean of the balances of the two questions on the current business situation and the business expectations for the next six months. All series are seasonally adjusted, the ifo business climate is in addition also smoothed.
Gernot Nerb
Industrial Organisation and New Technologies
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1236 Fax: +49(0)89/907795-1236
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