Projected figures are taken from the latest official population projection (“11. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvorausberechnung”) run by the Federal Statistical Office in 2006. Assumptions for the “medium variants” are: constant total fertility rates of about 1.4 in each year; increase of life expectancy at birth by about 1.7 (1.5) years per decade for males (females); annual net immigration of about 200,000 or 100,000 individuals per year. The “oldest” variant involves a larger increase in life expectancy (about + 0.4 years per decade for both males and females) and low net immigration (100,000 individuals per year). The “youngest” variant involves an increase in total fertility rates (to 1.6 until 2025) and high net immigration (200,000 individuals per year) Up-dates are made at longer time intervals, the next release being expected for 2009.
Timo Hener
Social Policy and Labour Markets
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1418 Fax: +49(0)89/985369
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