Twice a year, in the spring and autumn, the Joint Economic Forecast Project Team prepares a report on the state of economic activity in the world and in the German economy for the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology. Current members of the Project Team are the following four providers or provider consortia:
The Federal Ministry of Economics and Technologies calls for bids to participate in the project. Tenders are accepted from independent national and international economic institutes or consortia of such institutes. The project contract is for three years, after which a new call for tenders is issued. The number of participating institutes or consortia is limited to four.
All Joint Economic Forecasts contain a section on the world economy and one on the German economy. In the first section, the international development of economic activity is analysed, which is particularly important for an export-dependent country like Germany. The section also contains a description of international fiscal policy and monetary conditions, including the monetary policies of the US and Japanese central banks, the interest-rate decisions of the European Central Bank, the money supply expansion in the eurozone and the development of the euro/dollar exchange rate.
The section on the German economy contains an analysis of the current state of the economy, the most import assumptions of the forecast and, based on this, an annotated forecast of the key national accounting components, especially the growth of real GDP, the development of government consumption, investments in equipment and in construction, exports and imports as well as a forecast of developments on the labour market, inflation and the revenue and expenditures of public authorities. The forecast horizon of the Joint Economic Forecast is up to seven quarters, depending on the release date. The spring forecast additionally contains a medium-term forecast of the growth path of the German economy in the coming five years. The forecast section is followed by an assessment of economic policy with recommendations on wage, monetary and fiscal policies as well as on structural measures that are important for overall economic development.
Nierhaus, Wolfgang, “Preisbereinigtes Bruttoinlandsprodukt: Zur Veröffentlichungspraxis im Gemeinschaftsgutachten”, ifo Schnelldienst 61(9), 2008, 15–18. (Abstract / Download)
Nierhaus, Wolfgang, “Die Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute”, ifo Schnelldienst 55(8), 2002, 40–42. (Abstract / Download)
Nierhaus, Wolfgang, “Praktische Methoden der Konjunkturprognose”, ifo Schnelldienst 51(28), 1998, 7–19. (Abstract / Download)
• The Joint Economic Forecast is published in the subsequent issue of ifo Schnelldienst. • The summary and full text are available from the website of the Ifo Institute: Current forecast with short and long versions of the joint economic forecast as well as the accompanying tables. • Ifo project page of the Joint Economic Forecast.
Joint Economic Forecast Autumn 2011October 2012
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