10 May 2012
Ifo World Economic Climate 16 May 2012
The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area rose more strongly in the second quarter of 2012 than in the previous quarter, but remains below its long-term average. While appraisals of the current situation brightened only slightly, the six-month outlook is significantly more positive than in the first quarter. However, the economic situation in the euro area is not homogenous.
In Germany and Estonia the current situation remains “good”, while in Finland it is deemed “satisfactory”. Although the current business situation improved slightly in most euro countries compared to last quarter’s survey, in Austria, The Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland and France it was not even assessed as satisfactory. No positive developments were reported in Greece, Portugal, Italy, Spain or Cyprus. WES experts give the current economic situation in these countries the worst appraisals on the WES scale and expect a recession in 2012. Public deficits continue to create major problems in the entire euro area, as well as high unemployment in the euro crisis countries, according to the economic experts surveyed.
The six-month economic outlook in the euro area improved significantly versus the previous quarter and is positive compared in most euro countries.
Inflation estimates in the euro area have risen slightly since the beginning of the year. A price increase rate of 2.4% is forecast for 2012 in the euro area. WES experts expect short-term interest rates to remain stable over the next six months, while long-term interest rates should rise slightly. They also expect the US dollar to strengthen somewhat against the euro in the next six months.
Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute
Press release as PDF-file
Euro area (Index, base year: 2005 = 100)
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The Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) investigates world-wide economic trends by polling transnational as well as national organisations in different countries. This allows for a rapid, up-to-date assessment of the economic situation prevailing around the world. The full set of results will be published on 16 May 2012. The 2nd quarter 2012 euro area results, which are published here in advance, are based on the responses of 279 economic experts. WES is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris.
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Ifo Economic Climate for the Euro Area (WES QIII/2012)09 August 201212:00 PM CEST
Ifo World Economic Climate (WES QIII/2012)16 August 201212:00 PM CEST
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