09 February 2012
Ifo World Economic Climate 16 February 2012
The Ifo Economic Climate Indicator for the euro area rose slightly in the first quarter of 2012 after two successive decreases, but nevertheless remains significantly below its long-term average. Appraisals of the current economic situation continued to deteriorate. The only positive trend was seen in the six-month outlook, which brightened somewhat compared to the fourth quarter of 2011. It is too early to speak of any general recovery in the euro area.
The overall current economic situation is assessed as “good” in just two countries: Germany and Estonia, while in Finland and Slovakia it is deemed “satisfactory”. In most other euro countries the current economic situation deteriorated further compared to last quarter’s survey. It is now assessed as unfavourable and/or weak in countries like Austria, the Netherlands, Belgium, Ireland, France and Italy, for example. In Greece, Portugal and Spain, now joined by Cyprus, survey participants gave the current economic situation the worst appraisals on the WES scale.
The economic six-month outlook in the euro area improved again slightly compared to the last quarter of 2011, but nevertheless remains predominantly negative. Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovenia were the only countries for which positive expectations were reported.
Inflation estimates dropped in almost all euro area countries. An annual price increase rate of 2.3% is expected for the euro area in 2012. In view of subdued economic and inflation expectations, WES experts expect monetary policy to ease over the next six months and the US dollar to strengthen against the euro.
Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute
Press release as PDF-file
Euro area (Index, base year: 2005 = 100)
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The Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) investigates world-wide economic trends by polling transnational as well as national organisations in different countries. This allows for a rapid, up-to-date assessment of the economic situation prevailing around the world. The full set of results will be published on 16 February 2012. The 1st quarter 2012 euro area results, which are published here in advance, are based on the responses of 288 economic experts. WES is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) in Paris.
Ifo Economic Climate for the Euro Area (WES QIII/2012)09 August 201212:00 PM CEST
Ifo World Economic Climate (WES QIII/2012)16 August 201212:00 PM CEST
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