18 August 2010
Ifo Economic Climate for the Euro Area Euro Area: Ifo World Economic Climate Indicator Continues to Rise 11 August 2010
The Ifo World Economic Climate clouded over slightly in the third quarter of 2010. Although the surveyed experts have given better assessments of the current economic situation than in the first half of 2010, the economic expectations for the coming six months have been revised downwards. The results indicate that the recovery of world economic activity will continue at a slower pace in the second half of the year.
The World Economic Climate indicator fell in North America and in Asia but rose in Western Europe. In North America the indicator fell below its long-term average. The assessments of the current economic situation were more favourable than in the previous survey but have not yet reached the “satisfactory” level. The expectations for the coming six months, however, are less optimistic. In Asia the favourable economic situation has improved further, but the optimism for the next half year has declined somewhat. In Western Europe the assessments of the current economic situation have improved more clearly than the worldwide average. Since the six-month economic outlook has not clouded so strongly, the climate indicator as a whole rose marginally.
Although the economic experts foresee a somewhat higher rate of inflation for 2010, on a worldwide average, in comparison to the previous year (3.1% vis-à-vis 2.5%), in comparison to the previous survey the inflation expectations remain stable.
In accord with the somewhat cloudier economic outlook, somewhat fewer WES experts than in spring expect increasing short-term and long-term interest rates in the course of the coming six months.
In contrast to the previous surveys, the euro was assessed as slightly undervalued vis-à-vis the US dollar. Overall, in the coming six months – after adjustments have occurred – the experts foresee largely stable exchange rates for the four major world currencies, the euro, the US dollar, the Japanese yen and the British pound.
Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich
Press release as PDF-file
World Economy (Index, new base year: 2005 = 100)
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Climate (2005=100)
Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The July 2010 survey received responses from 1,103 experts in 116 countries. The survey is conducted in co-operation with the International Chamber of Commerce in Paris (ICC).
Ifo Economic Climate for the Euro Area (WES QI/2012)09 February 201211:00 AM CET
Ifo World Economic Climate (WES QI/2012)16 February 201211:00 AM CET
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