For the Ifo Business Climate Index consult these pages
In the ifo Konjunkturperspektiven, the Institute publishes the results of the Ifo Business Survey in Germany in all details with texts and graphics. To help non-German speakers to stay informed on the survey results of the Ifo Institute, we present a short overview of the contents of the Ifo periodical ifo Konjunkturperspektiven. Content of the most recent issue
A summary of the results of the Ifo Business Survey is published in German in the journal ifo Schnelldienst. To help non-German speakers to stay informed on the survey results of the Ifo Institute, we present a translation of this article. List of PDF files
To find out how the Ifo Business Climate Index is calculated with an example to illustrate how the balance values are calculated: please click here: Information
von Klaus Abberger, Manuel Birnbrich und Christian Seiler, in: ifo Schnelldienst 21/2009
Das ifo Geschäftsklima ist ein Konjunkturindikator, der aus den Ergebnissen der monatlichen Unternehmensbefragungen des ifo Instituts berechnet wird. Die Antworten zu zwei Fragen gehen in diesen Indikator ein: die Bewertung der aktuellen Geschäftslage sowie die Erwartung hinsichtlich der Geschäftsentwicklung in den kommenden sechs Monaten. Die Interpretation, was unter Geschäftslage und Geschäftsentwicklung zu verstehen ist, wird dabei bewusst den Befragungsteilnehmern überlassen. Im Frühjahr 2009 führte das ifo Institut eine Sonderumfrage bei den Teilnehmern des ifo Konjunkturtests im Handel durch mit dem Ziel, mehr über die Faktoren und die Hintergründe zu erfahren, die den Unternehmen als Grundlage zur Beantwortung der monatlichen Konjunkturumfragen dienen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass für die Beurteilung der aktuellen Geschäftslage und für die Geschäftserwartungen die Determinanten Ertragslage des Unternehmens und Umsatz wesentlich sind. Zudem wird deutlich, dass die beiden Fragen flexibel genug sind, um die Konjunkturentwicklung in verschiedenen Sektoren der Wirtschaft abzugreifen. Zudem zeigen die Angaben in der Metaumfrage, dass der monatliche ifo Konjunkturtest überwiegend von Personen, die an der Spitze der Unternehmen angesiedelt sind, beantwortet wird. Download (PDF, 210 KB, German)
by Klaus Abberger and Wolfgang Nierhaus, in: ifo Schnelldienst 5/2007
The Ifo Business Climate for German Industry and Trade is a widely observed indicator for economic activity in Germany. In ifo Schneldienst 3/2007 the special lead properties of this indicator at cyclical turning points was discussed. The reference series was the cyclical component of real GDP. In this article further important qualities of the Ifo Business Climate indicator are shown with respect to macroeconomic output. Along with a study in the time range, an in-depth analysis in the frequency range is also made. Download (PDF, 738 KB, German)
by Klaus Abberger and Wolfgang Nierhaus, in: ifo Schnelldienst 3/2007
The Ifo Business Climate for industry and trade is a reliable and much-followed leading indicator for economic development in Germany. Calculations of the Ifo Institute confirm that the Ifo Index gives advance indication of business-cycle turning points. In the period examined - 1970 to 2006 - the Ifo Business Climate provided early signals for most of the cyclical turning points. Download (PDF, 175 KB, German)
edited by Georg Goldrian, »Ifo Economic Policy« Series with Edward Elgar, February 2007, 264 pp.
This Handbook aims to provide an overview of regular survey activities, as well as to show how survey results can be used scientifically in the context of business-cycle analysis and forecasting. Abstract
by Klaus Abberger and Klaus Wohlrabe, in: ifo Schnelldienst 22/2006
The Ifo Business Climate is a closely ifo is a much considered indicator for the economic evolution in Germany. It is again and again the subject of scientific analyses in which the different qualities of the business climate are examined. At the centre of interest is often the use of the indicator for forecasting purposes. The German Council of Economic Experts, for example, devoted a section of its annual report for 2006/2007 to the Ifo Business Climate. This study by the Ifo Institute confirms the very good performance of the Ifo Business Climate Index as an early indicator for the business developments in manufacturing. The Munich experts have compared the leading-indicator properties of the Ifo Business Climate with the production index in manufacturing. The Ifo Business Climate has an average lead in the turning points of nearly two months and contains a considerably clear business-cycle signal, which is considerably stronger than the production index. For a business-cycle indicator, these are very positive characteristics. An additional advantage of the Ifo Index, is its timely publication. The Ifo survey results are published about four weeks before the production index. This gives the Ifo Business Climate a publication lead in addition to the calculated lead of two months. Download (PDF, 179 KB, German)
by Klaus Abberger, in: ifo Schnelldienst 21/2006
A recent study by the Ifo Institute confirms the very good performance of the Ifo Business Climate Index as an early indicator for the business developments in manufacturing. The Munich experts have compared the leading-indicator properties of the Ifo Business Climate with the production index in manufacturing. The Ifo Business Climate has an average lead in the turning points of nearly two months and contains a considerably clear business-cycle signal, which is considerably stronger than the production index. Download (PDF, 139 KB, German)
by Hans-Werner Sinn and Klaus Abberger, in: ifo Schnelldienst 4/2006
In January 2006, the Ifo Business Climate Index reached its highest level since May 2000. Many have asked whether this high level leads us also to expect a similarly high growth as in 2000, or whether a higher business climate index "only" indicates that the upswing has gained in breadth but not how strong economic growth will be. This is correct in principle, but still the forecasting strength of the Ifo Index for economic growth is considerable. A good leading indicator is expected to provide timely signals of economic turning points and to progresses relatively smoothly so that the economic situation can be assessed quickly and reliably. Both demands are met by the Ifo Index. It gives clear, early signals on the state of economic developments. If one compares the Ifo Index with the growth of real GDP, it is clear that the Ifo Index is an extremely reliable indicator of the state of the economy in Germany. Download (PDF, 333 KB, German)
by Georg Goldrian, in: ifo Schnelldienst 10/2001
A comparison of the forecast performance of the Ifo business expectations and the ZEW business-cycle expectations shows that although the lead time of the Ifo indicator is shorter, it is also more stabile. The marked variance of the ZEW indicator only permits a correspondingly imprecise dating of expected economic developments. The early indicator quality of the Ifo business expectations holds up well in this comparison. Download (PDF, 92 KB, German)
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