In December 2000, the Airport Forum, under the chairmanship of the Bavarian State Minister for Economics, Transportation and Technology, commissioned two expertises on the structural and transportation impact of the Munich Airport on its surrounding area. In March 2001 the working group consisting of the planning association for the peripheral Munich economic area and the Ifo Institute activity was instructed to provide a "structural exper-tise” and Professor Keller of the faculty for transport planning at the Technical University was asked to present a transportation expertise together with Büro Transver GmbH.
The task of the Ifo Institute consisted in forecasting the need for residential and commer-cial space up to the year 2015, in the framework of the “structural expertise” under the as-sumption of an expansion of airport activity. It is expected that passenger volume in 2015 will be approximately 150% and freight volume around 200% above the level of 2000. The Ifo forecast was asked to use these projections as the basis of its forecast.
As a result of this trend and also the development independent of the airport, employment will increase both at the airport itself and also in the surrounding area. An accompanying factor is the expected increase in the residential population.
As an intermediate step in the forecast of the additional requirements for residential and commercial space in the airport area, the increase in jobs and the subsequent increase in the residential population must be forecast. To do this, a mixture of methods was used. The study’s procedure was basically
Secondary statistics
Business Surveys.
Starting from the expected passenger volume and the predicted freight turnover, a rise in airport employment from 20,180 (in 2000) to 45,800 can be expected by 2015. The number of secondary jobs might increase by around 17,000. In addition, the autonomous development that is independent of the airport will continue to show growth, amounting to 21,600 more jobs. In total the number of jobs will increase from approx. 300,000 in the investigated region in 2000 to 364,200 by 2015. This is an increase of approximately 21%.
As a result of this increase, the population will grow by 60,700 persons or 12% by 2015. The number of households will exceed the level of 2000 by approx. 34,400, and average household size will continue to decline.
Commercial space requirements for the additional jobs in different industries outside the airport grounds is estimated at about 181 ha. The additional population will need approximately 34,400 additional housing units by 2015 These units will require space amounting to 3.1 million square metres. Of these units, 58% will be in single and two family houses and 55% will be owner occupied.
The Munich Airport and its surrounding area, Bavarian State Ministry of Economics, Transportation and Technology, 2002.
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