The completion of the Main-Danube Canal in September 1992 brought about fundamental change in inland water transportation and for the ports along the Bavarian Danube. For the first time, a fully navigable waterway links the highly industrialised Rhine River area with the Southeast European economic area. The connection with the west has increased the port handling of the Bavarian Danube ports. On the other hand, the port of Regensburg lost its function as a terminal port, and handling in some types of goods declined clearly after the opening of the canal.
In addition to the new infrastructure, the political and economic changes in the countries the Danube passes through have had a major impact on the volume of inland shipping on the Bavarian Danube. The increasing exchange of goods in the Danube region has also boosted inland waterway shipping.
In 1997 the Ifo Institute was asked to estimate the potential of future inland waterway shipping on the Bavarian Danube. One forecast was made for the current development state of the Danube and another assuming the full development of the Bavarian Danube. This study was supplemented in 1999 by an examination that included, on the one hand, the exploration and assessment of firms' choices of means of transportation. On the other hand, it was examined whether transport volume of the magnitude expected can be handled with the current transport capabilities of the Danube between Straubing and Vilshofen, the stretch with the most serious weaknesses on the Bavarian Danube.
Building on the results already ascertained, the central task of the third study is to assess the potential of future port handling in the Bavarian Danube ports of Kelheim, Regensburg, Straubing, Deggendorf and Passau. The future receiving and shipping volume was determined using both status-quo conditions and also by assuming the full development of the Bavarian Danube.
All relevant external and Ifo studies were evaluated. Transport demand from future external trade flows on the Bavarian Danube was derived. Port-specific figures were calculated from the ex--post development of handling at the individual ports. Expert interviews were conducted with selected firms and institutions.
Bavarian Statistical Office, Wasser- und Schiffahrtsdirektion Süd, statistics of the individual ports.
In 1993, 3.4 million tonnes of goods were unloaded or loaded at Bavarian Danube ports. In the following years, inland waterway handling fluctuated greatly because of the changeable flow of water on the Danube and from the political developments in Central and Eastern Europe. Especially the blockage of the Danube had a retarding effect on inland waterway shipping. Port handling amounted to only 4.2 million tonnes in 1999 compared with 4.9 million tonnes in 1998. In these years, the strong increases in grains, feeds and fertilisers were offset by volume losses in mining products.
In the forecast period, a clear expansion of freight volume is expected. Handling at ports on the Bavarian Danube will amount to ca. 8 million tonnes in 2015. With the full development of the Danube, 8.2 million tonnes can be expected.
Also in 2015, the port of Regensburg will handle the greatest volume of ports on the Bavarian Danube: volume should increase to nearly 4.22 million tonnes, compared to 2.1 million tonnes in 1999. The port of Kelheim will show a similar percentage increase in growth: its volume will stand at 1.8 million tonnes. In the port of Deggendorf, which handles mineral oil products, a volume of 0.8 million tonnes is expected. The port of Passau, which was seriously affected by developments in Central and Eastern Europe in the 1990s because of its geographic position, will record the highest percentage growth. After a volume of only 0.07 million tonnes in 1999, a volume of 0.5 million tonnes is expected for 2015. Also for the most recent port along the Bavarian Danube the port of Straubing, further volume gains will be achieved which will increase its volume to nearly 0.4 tonnes.
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