The imminent enlargement of the European Union from 15 to 25 member states will bring a perceptible increase in real income and welfare as well as growth impulses from a division of labour and increasing economies of scale particularly for the accession countries but also for the "old" EU states. However, the opening of the borders and market expansion will not benefit all industries and regions and not all inhabitants and employees: there will be winners and losers. In Western Europe and in particularly in Germany the negative effects will predominate in the building sector. A rough estimate shows that German construction could lose a further three quarters to a million jobs in the next decade. Stronger protection measures for the preservation of building capacities reduce, however, the positive, total net effect. Therefore, alternative strategies are to be developed for the market adaptation at home and for opening foreign markets; in both areas considerable catching-up requirement still exist for German contractors.
V. Rußig, D. Jacob und Th. Birtel, EU-Osterweiterung – Chancen und Risiken für Bauunternehmen, Schriftenreihe des Zentralverbands des Deutschen Baugewerbes (ZDB), Vol. 50, Berlin und Düsseldorf 2002.
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