For many years the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Dresden grew stronger than the Saxon average. However, while employment has continued to grow rapidly since 2005, the GDP growth of the capital has slowed compared to the rest of the state. The first part of the project analyzes this apparent contradiction. Furthermore, the project examines the influence of a changing demographic structure on the local labor market. We update the results of an earlier ifo Dresden Branch study: "The Dresden Labour Market and Demographic Change" [Grundig et al. (2007)].
The first part presents descriptive statistics on economic and employment growth. In order to decipher the contribution of various sectors to the total economic growth, we compute sector specific growth shares. To describe the labor market in Dresden we employ both cross-sectional and longitudinal data analyses. In particular we consider the trends in employment, unemployment, occupational qualification and commuting. To analyze a potential skill shortage we use Federal Employment Agency micro-data. With these individual level data we compute the age structures of occupations. We also simulate the effect of the expansion of free movement of labor to central European countries.
Statistical Office of the Free State of Saxony Federal Statistical Office and the statistical Offices of the Länder BA Employment Panel Federal Employment Agency Semiconductor Industry Association
The growth of the GDP of Dresden depends to a large extent on the microelectronics cluster "Silicon Saxony". Since the city has specialized in this particular sector, the fluctuation of the gross value added can be explained by the global dynamics of this sector. Only if other sectors gain in importance a smoothing of the economic growth of Dresden can be achieved. Contrarily to the development of the GDP, the employment growth is mainly attributable to the service sector. The growth of employment in the service sector continues to expand faster than the state average. A detailed analysis of the labor market in Dresden shows that in particular high skilled employment is rising. The rising demand for the high skilled will also continue in the coming years. Furthermore, the analysis of commuting behaviour shows a slight tendency toward "reurbanization". Young, highly skilled employees rather relocate in the city than commute from the surrounding areas. The aging population poses new challenges for the local labor market. However, through its institutions of higher education, a relatively large pool of highly educated workers is present in the city.
Publication in the series ifo Dresden Studie is intended.
Anna Montén and Wolfgang Nagl: "Der Dresdner Arbeitsmarkt – die qualifizierte Beschäftigung nimmt zu", in: ifo Dresden berichtet 06/2011, p. 14-20 ( Download ).
Beate Schirwitz: "Trends in den Pendlerströmen der Stadt Dresden", in: ifo Dresden berichtet 06/2011, p. 21-24 ( Download ).
Jan Kluge: "Wachstum und Beschäftigung am Wirtschaftsstandort Dresden – Warum wächst Dresden langsamer als der Rest Sachsens?", in: ifo Dresden berichtet 05/2011, p. 11-19 ( Download ).
RSS