The aim of the project of the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development is the preparation of a "traffic integration forecast" for the year 2030. In that part of the project, a traffic analysis and different forecasts for Germany will be made with the help of a regionalised structure prediction. Therefore, various structural data (e.g. population, labour force, unemployed persons, gross domestic product, imports and exports) are collected and evaluated both for Germany and European neighbouring countries as well as for all other regions of the world. In addition to that, a scenario process will justify a set of assumptions about the long-term development of certain factors (e.g. oil price, exchange rates, technological progress). The regionalised structure prediction for 2030 will then be based on the scenario development and structural data collection. Forcasts are made e.g. for the population, the labour force or the GDP.
Structural data: statistically compiled data will describe both, the initial situation and the development of each of the countries from 2003 to 2009. The data depth is very different: for Germany it is at NUTS-3 level, for European countries mainly at NUTS-2 level. Scenario process: various relevant studies for the development of scenarios are analysed and summarized. Based on this, a consistent baseline scenario will be created and characterized by descriptors. The assumptions needed for the structural data forecast will be the basis for this scenario. Structural data forecast 2030: this forecast will be based on the results of the upper two points.
Selection: Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs and Spatiel Development, Regional Accounts VGRdL, Land Statistical Office, Federal Bureau of Statistics, Eurostat, World Bank, IMF, CIA
A publication of the research results in the series "ifo Dresden Studien" and an article in "ifo Dresden berichtet" are planned.
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