Considering the declining and aging population on the one hand and the agreed degression of the Solidarpakt II for the newly-formed German states on the other hand it is supposed that the economic performance of Free State of Saxony will be subdued in the coming years. To verify this assumption, this study provides a projection of the economic development of Saxony, with a special focus on the different regional starting conditions and the resulting regional differences. Negative economic effects of the demographic change are expected in rural areas of Saxony. For congested areas (Dresden, Leipzig and with reservations Chemnitz) there is only limited impact of the demographic change expected. This is mainly due to agglomeration economies and structural specifics.
In this context there it is also worth to think about what perspective results for what group of the population. There is some fear that the economic situation of the senior citizen gets worse because of low pension claims. The low pension claims result from high unemployment and low wages in the newly-founded German States. This study investigates explicit the development of the future pension claims until 2020. Furthermore the study wants to answer the question how, in respect to the skill levels, the development of the future incomes look like.
S. Döll, W. Nagl, C. Thater und J. Ragnitz (2009): Mittelfristige Einkommensentwicklung in Sachsen, ifo Dresden Studie 48, Munich/Dresden. (Abstract in German)
