In the next 20 years the effects of demographic change will also be visible on the labour market in Saxony. The supply of labour will decrease due to the shrinking population of working age people. Demographic change may also affect labour demand if, for example, innovative enterprises fear locational disadvantages because of the shortage of young talent. In the light of demographic change, it is task of policy-makers to recognise the dangers for Saxony and design suitable counter-strategies. The identification of possible measures, with which the Saxon government can counteract the long-term loss of human capital, is the goal of this project.
The study shows that labour markets will develop very differently, depending on the qualifications of workers in Saxony. Without countermeasures, qualified workers could be in short supply already in 2006, which would impair growth opportunities in Saxony. No long-term improvement of the job chances for lesser qualified workers from demographic change is evident, however. To react to the changing size of the labour force and to safeguard the supply of human capital in Saxony in the long-term, some policy instruments are available, whose effectiveness is examined in the study. In particular a new direction in immigration policies and later retirement could decrease the threatening shortage of highly qualified workers. The increase in the labour participation rate of highly qualified women, on the other hand, is of lesser importance quantitatively. Whereas the above-mentioned policy measures can bring results already in the short and medium term, the formation of new human capital is only conceivable as a long-term strategy.
Dittrich, M. et al. (2005): Demographische Entwicklung im Freistaat Sachsen – Analyse und Strategien zum Bevölkerungsrückgang auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, ifo Dresden Studie 36, Munich/Dresden.
RSS