The aim of this project is to answer the question, what influences declining transfers and the demographic change have on the funding status in eastern Germany and Saxony in the context of the EU Structural funding period 2014 - 2020. There is a special focus on the problem, how these transfer payments will affect the economic performance of the eastern German states and what influences this will have on the future classification of assisted areas within the European Union. The first step is to quantify all relevant transfer payments in favour of eastern Germany. Their impacts on the gross domestic product are analysed in a second step.
The basis for this report are all relevant transfer payments, which are projected into the future under plausible assumptions. After this, the study provides an assessment of how these transfers affect main economic aggregates. For this purpose a fully specified macroeconomic model of the eastern germany economy is required, which has the ability to quantify the interactions between political interventions and the emanating economic developments.
National accounts of the German federal states Federal Ministry of Finance Data from the German pension fund Federal Statistical Office Halle Institute for Economic Research
The decline in transfer payments to easter Germany (with Berlin) will lead to a 2 % lower GDP than it would be the case if the tranfers remained constant. The size of the negative impact is different in the different sectors of production. Despite this significant decrease in macroeconomic output, the states of eastern Germany (including Berlin) will reach 80 % of the EU-27 average (per capita GDP). Even if the thresholds for EU-transfers would remain the same, the states of eastern Germany would still not qualify for the maximum of aid.
Kloß, Michael, Lehmann, Robert, Ragnitz, Joachim and Gerhard Untiedt: "Auswirkungen veränderter Transferzahlungen auf die wirtschaftliche Leistungsfähigkeit der ostdeutschen Länder", ifo Dresden Studie 63, in press
Lehmann, Robert and Joachim Ragnitz: "Die Transferleistungen zugunsten der ostdeutschen Bundesländer - Status quo und Ausblick", in: ifo Schnelldienst 65 (3), 2012, p. 25-30 ( Abstract )
Kloß, Michael, Lehmann, Robert, Ragnitz, Joachim and Gerhard Untiedt: "Gesamtwirtschaftliche Effekte verminderter Transferzahlungen für die ostdeutschen Bundesländer", in: ifo Dresden berichtet (1), 2012, p. 21-28 ( Download, PDF, 81 KB )
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