The first two project phases dealt with the modelling of actor decisions and programming the implementation. The goal was to analyse the medium- and long-term impact of changes in the availability of the natural resource water in the catchment area of the upper Danube. The analysis in the second phase of the project focused on a deep modelling of actor decisions. From an economic perspective, the modelling was for the following actor decisions. The deep industrial actor makes optimal output and input decisions, including the optimal utilization degree and utilization volume of the factor water. With market expansion the industrial utilisation can be extended, or, in contrast, zero production is possible as the equivalent of market exit. The deep demographic actor makes his optimal residential and working-place decisions in dependency on the economic development and indirectly also in dependency on the availability of the resource water.
The Global Change Decision Support System (GCDSS) DANUBIA is comprised of the modelling and programming of all contributors. Finished at the end of project phase II, this is a tool that allows for simulations of various scenarios and for the calculation of impacts that result from the model on various shocks or changers in the fundamental framework conditions.
Goal 1: In phase III scenarios of interests are selected that their medium and long-term impacts are determined on the basis of the model. A particularly interesting scenario for economists is the rise of prices of non-renewable resources and the impact estimation on the basis of DANUBIA. Of major importance is the development of additional, integrated scenarios based on the input and interests of the stakeholders. The results of the scenarios will be tested using the data, the literature and expert interviews.
Goal 2: In addition to the development of relevant scenarios, a focus is placed on the validation and expansion of the industry and demographic actors. In the industry model the substitution options of the factors of production are looked at in depth and the waste-water quality is modelled. The models are to be improved and validated using new micro-data and empirical methods. Sensitivity analyses will be conducted and methods developed for the explicit presentation of uncertainty in the deep actor model. New production interfaces will be created via the political and institutional actors especially for the sectors of agricultural economy and tourism. This allows for the simulation of the impact of changes in the demand for goods (e.g., for renewable resources) on the water cycle.
Goal 3: One of the most important goals is to make GCDSS DANUBIA accessible and expandable to a broad circle of users. By engaging in dialogue with the stakeholders, DANUBIA is to be adjusted to their needs. At the same time, the development of sustainability concepts and assessment schemes will give the stakeholders guidelines and help in interpreting the results of the scenarios. The crucial point is the transference to an open-source project and the creation or improvement of user interfaces. Access to the online atlas in particular will be expanded and a more flexible visualization of the results will be made possible.
Early recognition data, official statistics of Germany, Austria and Switzerland.
RSS