The size, structure and likely future development of the capital stock are key factors of economic analyses. Due to the long life-span and useful life of buildings and structures, these generally account for a large portion of the capital stock. Accordingly, detailed statements on the development of the capital stock can only be made if good statistical information is available on the extent, structure and quality of construction investment.
For the past thirty years, the Ifo Institute has prepared a multi-client forecast of construction activity in West Germany broken down according to construction sector and with a ten-year forecast horizon. In Autumn 2001, the first forecast for construction in all of Germany will be presented.
Complex, mathematical forecast methods are not suitable for long-term construction forecasts. Analyses for the past decades have demonstrated quite clearly that the medium- and long-term construction demand in individual construction sectors is largely dependent on a few, trend-determined factors. In addition to demographic determinants (population, household), these include government measures, household income, interest-rate levels and the stock of buildings and structures but also factors that are much more difficult to estimate such as technical developments and "fashions".
Thus, in addition to a forecast method that is exclusively based on demographic factors and the existing building stock as well, the results of expert interviews are also used.
The calculations and forecasts are based on data of construction volume that the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW) releases and updates every year. For the quantitative analyses and forecasts data on building permits and completions of the Federal Statistical Office are employed.
Due to a rising housing demand construction activities in Germany will grow moderately through the next 10 years. In 2021 construction volume will amount to €262 bill. (in 2000 prices). This corresponds to an increase of 3% compared to the 2011-level. In the ten-years-period until 2021 the average annual growth rate should therefore amount for around 0.3%.
Residential construction will take on a key role in the coming years. In 2009 and 2010 housing output already increased strongly. Through 2021 the residential construction volume will be expanded by nearly 1% per year on the average. Especially new housing is expected to grow rapidly. In contrast commercial construction volume in 2021 should reach a level that lies 2½% below the 2011-value. Public-sector activities should even drop by ca. 8% in the same period.
Dorffmeister, Ludwig and Michael Ebnet, "Langfristige Baunachfrage: Wohnungsbau auf Expansionskurs, öffentlicher Bau auf Schrumpfkurs", in: ifo Schnelldienst 5/2012, pp. 35-46 (PDF, in German, 887 KB) (refers to ifo Bauvorausschätzung 2011).
Information brochure incl. order form (PDF, in German, 701 KB)
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