The basic task is the scientifically based development of methodologies to establish an Early Warning System for both, the monetary as well as the real economy of Kazakhstan.
Five working groups will be set up, each one composed of ifo and Researchers of Kazakhstan. They focus on the following topics: For the area of real economic crises: 1. Composite indicators to forecast cyclic turning points 2. Macro economic impact of oil price shocks For the area of currency and banking crises: 3. Signal approaches 4. Stress testing models 5. Impact of institutions on economic volatility 6. Macro-prudential leading composite indicators and system approach.
Official Statistics, Central Bank and Surveys.
6 scientific publications, 1 Book in Russian language, 1 Conference in Kazakhstan for result dissemination. 1 Dissertation.
Podlich, Natalia (with Didar Illyasov, Elena Tsoy, Shynar Shaikh), "The Methodology of Stress Tests for the Kazakh Banking System", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 85, 2010 (Download)
Abberger, Klaus and Wolfgang Nierhaus (with Shaikh Shynar), "Findings of the Signal Approach for Financial Monitoring in Kazakhstan", CESifo Working Paper Nr. 2774, 2009 (Abstract / Download); as soon as: www.SSRN.com and www.RePEc.org.
Nerb, Gernot (with Bhattacharyay Biswa N., Dlugosch Dennis, Kolb Benedikt, Lahiri Kajal, Mukhametov Irshat), "Early Warning System for Economic and Financial Risks in Kazakhstan", CESifo Working Paper Nr. 2832, 2009 (Abstract / Download); as soon as: www.SSRN.com and www.RePEc.org.
Gronwald, Marc and Johannes Mayr (with Orazbayev Sultan), "Estimating the effects of oil price shocks on the Kazakh economy", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 81, 2009 (Abstract / Download)
Röhn, Oliver (with Orazbayev Sultan, Sarinzhipov Aslan) , "An Institutional Risk Analysis of the Kazakh Economy", Ifo Working Paper Nr. 70, 2009 (Abstract / Download)
Das CESifo Working Paper of Abberger et al. was already listed „Top Ten downloads“ of SSRN.
Two junior researchers of the Ifo Institute use the Project for their Dissertations (Ulbricht, "Combined forecasts and forecast breakdown preselection", 2009, and Mayr, "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates – Pooling of Forecasts and Pooling of Information", 2010), two additional researchers could apply the know-how of their already completed Dissertations (Röhn, "Three Empirical Essays on the Determinants of Economic Growth", 2008 and Gronwald, "The Macroeconomics of the Oil Price – Evidence from Modern Statistical Techniques", 2008). Natalia Podlich is preparing her Dissertation fully on basis of her project research activities. Working title, "Developing Advanced Stress Testing Tools: A Case Study for the Banking Sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan" (expected submission date is end of 2010).
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