The primary goal of this study is to estimate the direct and indirect economic effects of the German betting industry on the basis of four different future scenarios. The scenarios draw on the statements of the Federal Constitutional Court ruling from March 28, 2006 as well as the developments of comparative markets.
The analysis is based on tables published by Statistisches Bundesamt, which are used to conduct an input-output-analysis. The scenarios constructed for this purpose, draw again on various analytical methods such as surveys or the avarage revenue per unit approach.
As primary sources of information serves data from several listed companies, weekly statistics published by Deutsche Lotto- und Totoblock as well as data collected through surveys and various recent market reports.
In the report four scenarios are depicted, each including forcasts under different legal conditions for the betting turnover as well as the gaming revenues of the industry until the year 2010. Special attention is paid to individual market players such as Oddset, offsore internet companies, local betting agents and bookmakers. The input-output-analysis draws then upon the different scenarios to estimate the contribution of the industry to GDP, as well as the labour and tax effects, which are assosiated with the induvidual activities.
Under the assumption that a similar system as in the United Kingdom is put in place that is a regulatory authority is erected, concessions for private bookmakers put out for tender as well as a net gaming revenues tax is installed, the government could not only stabilize its revenues from the betting industry but increase them significantly. The results of the input-output-analysis are, that on an accumulated basis 1.7 billion Euros of additional revenues could be earned by the state up the year 2010 compared to the case were the new lottery treaty (Lotteriestaatsvertrag) with its restrictive conditions is put in place. This development is primarily the result of monopoly rents being diminished due to the far reaching relinquishment of advertisement and distribution channels that are accompanied by the lottery treaty (Lotteriestaatsvertrag). Apart from the state sector, around 15000 job would directly or indirectly be affected in the privat sector.
Hornuf, Lars; Günter Britschkat and Gernot Nerb (together with Robert Lechner), Auswirkungen des Bundesverfassungsgerichtsurteils zum Sportwettmarkt auf die deutsche Volkswirtschaft, ifo Forschungsberichte 32, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Munich, 2006.
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