In the project time-frame it is not possible to carry out a model-based analysis regarding the prospective quantitative effects of the directive concerning employment and economic growth in Germany. The focus rather lies on a close study of already existing extensive estimation models – especially the models of the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and the Danish Institut Copenhagen Economics – in respect of their informational value for Germany. The main task, however, is to disaggregate the existing global statements and to refer them to a wide range of service branches.
The analysis of the respective importance of the directive is divided into a theoretical-methodical part, an empirical analysis based on a characterisation of the present competitive position, a current survey about the estimated importance of the planned EU Service Directive and a series of interviews with experts. Based on the empirically gained information, the present situation and the medium-term outlook as well as the estimated importance of the EU Service Directive is presented for 14 different service branches, which were selected in such a way that they represent the entirety of the service sector. Furthermore, the study covers the estimated effects on branches, regions and professional qualifications, which will be used to derive some suggestions for a modification of the directive.
The results of the study will be published as soon as permission has been granted by the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Labour .
Gernot Nerb, Heinz Schmalholz, Björn Frank, Martin Gornig, Hagen Krämer, Chancen und Risiken veränderter Rahmenbedingungen für die Dienstleistungsunternehmen durch die EU-Dienstleistungsrichtlinie, ifo Forschungsbericht Nr. 29 (in German), München/Berlin, April 2006.
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