Identification of growth potentials for the production of foundry products by analyzing the perspectives of regional and sectoral developments
Development of a world scenario based on existing forecasts in special consideration of the economic and technological catching-up progress of emerging markets. Macroeconomic as well as sectoral forecasts were made and matched in an iterative process.
FAO, Goldman Sachs, IEA, IWF, OECD, UNCTAD and further sectoral forecasts
Various factors can explain the dynamics of current global developments. Particularly risk-loving behaviour of investors and growing demand of developing countries have contributed to the development of infrastucture and more efficient manufacturing. These developments have led to an investment boom. Primarily due to the subprime crises, the world economy is expected to slow down eventually. However, it is expected to recover by the coming decade.
Since the foundry industry is strongly linked to global investment developments, it will be affected by the worldwide economic condition. Due to powerful competitiveness, German companies have gained and are likely to keep gaining market share in the European market. They are, however, going to be impacted by the slowing world economy. Serious improvement of the current market situation is not expected until the period from 2010 to 2012. After 2012, companies will start to benefit from progressing globalisation trends again.
Different business trends are expected in different market segments. The worsening of the investment climate is hardly going to influence the construction of power plants in the coming years. There will be a strong demand for plants for conventional, nuclear and alternative feedstock. The situation will, however, be worse for suppliers in the aircraft and shipbulding industry. In the motor vehicle industry, alternative drive concepts are going to gain more attention because of rising fuel prices. But in the medium run, there won't be any changes in the volume business of the automotive industry, although broad field tests will be carried out. However, foundries that rely on the motor vehicle industry will have to adjust their strategies and adapt them to changing demand.
Vieweg, Hans-Günther and Reinhard, Michael, "Guss 2020 - Perspektiven für die deutsche Gießereiindustrie", in ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung Band 35, Munich, 2009.
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