In August 2006 the Ifo Institute for Economic Research was commissioned by the capital city of Dresden to develop a reliable scenario for the city’s labour market against the background of demographic change. Since 1990 the state of Saxony has lost 13 percent of its population and by 2020 it will lose another 11 percent. These numbers hide spatially very different developments – with large population losses especially in rural areas, but also small population gains in cities like Dresden. Nevertheless, Dresden cannot ignore the demographic problem. For one, the increase in population is offset by a decline in population of working age by 3.5 percent. Secondly, the city of Dresden cannot decouple from the developments in the suburban areas, as at present around one third of all gainfully employed commute in from neighbouring districts. All the more important therefore for city planners to answer the following questions: What are the effects of demographic change on the Dresden labour market? What are the likely developments in individual skill levels? What is the effect of these developments on individual branches of industry?
The research revealed that in Dresden – at the given population forecast – there will, on balance, not be a lack of labour due to the city’s pull on labour from the surrounding areas and abroad. However, the analysis of skill-specific sub-labour markets shows that the individual skill levels will develop in different ways. Unemployment will decline slightly for the unskilled, although a rising demand for labour and a demographically caused decline of the working population will not solve the unemployment problem by themselves.
For people with completed training as well as for those with completed higher education the gap between labour demand and labour supply will markedly narrow so that scarcities and upward wage pressure are to be expected for individual qualifications. The more specific a company’s demand for labour, the more important will be a foresighted personnel and qualification policy. Firms must expect not to be able to rely on the local labour market for specific skills. They will increasingly compete for skilled labour with firms in other attractive locations.
Thum, M.; B. Grundig; M. Kriese und C. Pohl (2007): Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Dresdner Arbeitsmarkt, ifo Dresden Studie 42, Munich/Dresden 2007 (in German)
Grundig, B.; M. Kriese and C. Pohl (2007): Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf den Dresdner Arbeitsmarkt, ifo Dresden berichtet 02/2007, p. 3-13 (in German) (Download, PDF, 246 KB).
RSS