At the 139th Meeting of the “Tax Revenue Forecast” Working Group in Halle (Saale), the forecast for tax revenues was revised substantially upwards for the third consecutive time. The Group forecasted tax revenue for 2011 to 2016. Compared with the previous estimate of May 2011, revenue for the current year will be 17.5 billion euros higher than expected. For 2012, the correction amounts to 9.4 billion euros more. For the years 2013 to 2015, the additional revenue is only 6.2 to 8.0 billion euros.
The correction in the forecast is partly due to improved macroeconomic conditions. The forecast assumes a growth rate of the nominal gross domestic product in 2011 and 2012 of 3.8 and 2.4 percent, respectively. In the May forecast, growth rates of 3.5 percent were assumed for each year. The additional revenue in the current year is thus cyclically driven but is considerably higher than could be expected in the light of the development of GDP alone. The development of wages and salaries in the current year has been estimated as unusually strong, which has resulted in high additional revenue (especially in the personal income tax). The by far greatest part of the estimation revision is due to adjustments in the wage tax and value added tax.
The tax ratio in relation to GDP is expected to increase from 21.4 percent in 2010 to 22.2 percent in the current year.
Table Ergebnisse der Steuerschätzung November 2011 (PDF) (in German)
A detailed report of the tax forecast will appear in the next edition of ifo Schnelldienst.
Bundesministerium der Finanzen: Ergebnisse der 139. Sitzung des Arbeitskreises „Steuerschätzungen“ vom 2. bis 4. November 2011 in Halle/Saale Press release (in German).
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