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  1. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2016

    Ifo Economic Climate in the Euro Area Continues to Cloud Over

    Feb 4, 2016: The Ifo Index for the economic climate in the euro area declined by another three index points in the first quarter of 2016. It dropped to 118.9 points, but still remains significantly above its long-term average. Assessments of the current economic situation were only slightly less favourable than in the previous quarter, and positive expectations also clouded over somewhat. The recovery in the euro area economy is only expected to continue at a slow pace. Details

  2. New Publication: “Hans-Werner Sinn und 25 Jahre deutsche Wirtschaftspolitik (Hans-Werner Sinn and 25 Years of German Economic Policy)” (Hanser Verlag 2016)

    Feb 1, 2016: An era draws to a close with Hans-Werner Sinn’s term-of-office as Professor at the University of Munich and President of the Ifo Institute ending on 31 March 2016. For over a quarter of a century – including 17 years as Ifo President – Hans-Werner Sinn was Germany’s most well-known economist. His fellow economists unanimously describe him as the most influential voice of academia in the national economic policy debate. To mark his retirement, Gabriel Felbermayr, Meinhard Knoche and Ludger Wößmann published the book: “Hans-Werner Sinn und 25 Jahre deutsche Wirtschaftspolitik (Hans-Werner Sinn and 25 Years of German Economic Policy)” (Hanser Verlag 2016), which is on sale to the public as of today. Details

  3. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for January 2016

    Credit Constraints Fall to New Record Low

    Jan 29, 2016: It is increasingly easy for German companies to access credit. Credit constraints for German trade and industry fell to 14.3 percent in January from 14.6 percent last month, marking a new historic low. Details

  4. Actions Speak Louder Than Words

    Jan 28, 2016: Since Germany’s introduction of the debt cap in 2009, left-wing federal state (Länder) governments have reduced their deficits to a similar extent as right-wing federal state governments. This has occurred despite the fact that left-wing Länder governments politically showed far greater opposition to the debt cap and also had far higher structural deficits prior to 2009 than their right-wing counterparts. Details

  5. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2016

    Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Begins Year Brighter

    Jan 28, 2016: The Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern German trade and industry rose in January. The current business situation in Eastern Germany, which was already very good, improved significantly compared to developments nationwide. Business expectations, by contrast, clouded over markedly. The outlook for the Eastern German economy for the first half of 2016 deteriorated clearly. Details

  6. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2016

    German Companies Still Plan to Recruit More Staff

    Jan 28, 2016: Although German companies are still creating new jobs, their willingness to recruit additional staff faded slightly this month. The Ifo Employment Barometer fell to 109.7 points in January from 110.5 points in the previous month. Details

  7. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for January 2016

    German Export Industry Suffers Setback

    Jan 26, 2016: Fewer German manufacturers expect exports to rise than last month. Their export expectations fell to 7.6 balance points in January from 11.6 balance points last month. This stifled the trend that had been emerging in the German export sector in recent months. Weakness in the emerging economies, and primarily in China, now seems to be having an impact. Details

  8. Ifo Report on Croatia

    Jan 25, 2016: The ifo Research Report No. 70 on reforms for Croatia has been released in English. Details

  9. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the January 2016 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Drops Markedly

    Jan 25, 2016: Sentiment among German businesses weakened at the beginning of the year. The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell to just 107.3 points in January from 108.6 points in December. Assessments of the current business situation were scaled back slightly, but remained very good. Business expectations, by contrast, clouded over significantly. The year started with an unpleasant surprise for the German economy. Details

  10. Boosting Private Investment Via Differentiated Tax Treatment of Capital Costs

    Jan 15, 2016: Private investments crucially depend on a company’s developments in turnover and its capital costs. These are the results of a study conducted by the Ifo Institute on behalf of the Impuls Foundation of the Association of German Machinery and Plant Manufacturers. Details

  11. Economists Expect Sluggish Growth in Euro Area

    Jan 12, 2016: Economists expect sluggish growth in the euro area to continue in the months ahead. Economic output is forecast to increase by 0.4 percent in the first and second quarters of 2016 versus the previous quarter. A total increase of 1.4 percent for 2015 is expected by economists from the Ifo Institute (Munich), Insee (Paris) and Istat (Rome). Details

  12. Preliminary Results of the Ifo Investment Survey of German Manufacturing

    2016: German Manufacturers Plan to Invest Six Percent More

    Dec 28, 2015: The German manufacturing sector plans to increase its investment by six percent in 2016. These are the preliminary results from a survey of manufacturing by the Ifo Institute. That would mark a significant upturn, as the branch only increased its investment by four percent in 2015. The growth will be mainly driven by large firms, as small firms intend to reduce their expenditure on new buildings and equipment in 2016. Details

  13. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2015

    German Companies Still Plan to Recruit New Staff

    Dec 23, 2015: The German economy is creating permanent new jobs. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 110.5 points in December from 109.9 points last month. The employment dynamic is gaining impetus. Details

  14. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2015

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Slips Towards Year End

    Dec 21, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate for Eastern German trade and industry clouded over at the end of 2015, but remained bright. Assessments of the current business situation of Eastern German companies also deteriorated markedly. Business expectations for the first six months of 2016 were no longer as optimistic as last month. Despite this month’s decline in the Eastern German business climate indicator, however, it remains at a very high level. A favourable year for the Eastern German economy draws to a successful close. Details

  15. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for December 2015

    Credit Financing Still No Problem for German Companies

    Dec 21, 2015: German companies continue to enjoy access to credit without any major problems. Credit constraints for German trade and industry increased marginally to 14.6 percent in December from 14.5 percent last month. Thanks to the European Central bank’s low interest rate policy, credit constraints remain at a low level. Details

  16. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for December 2015

    German Manufacturing Expects Stronger Growth in Exports

    Dec 18, 2015: German manufacturers expect exports to rise. Export expectations reached their highest level since March and are now at 11.6 balance points, versus 7.6 balance points last month. The stable economic situation in the USA and the huge depreciation of the euro, triggered by the ECB’s quantitative easing policy, played a crucial role in the increase. Exports as a key driver of the German economy gathered impressive impetus this month. Details

  17. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the December 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Stays High but Dips

    Dec 17, 2015: Strong sentiment in the German economy weakened slightly this month. The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell to 108.7 points in December from 109.0 points in November. Assessments of the current business situation declined. Optimism about future business developments, by contrast, remained unchanged. The index values for the business climate, situation and expectations are around three points above the respective levels seen in December 2014. The economic situation could hardly be better in the run-up to Christmas. Details

  18. Sinn Welcomes Interest Rate Increase in the USA

    Dec 16, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has welcomed the interest rate increase by the US central bank. “It was high time for the increase. The zero interest policy pursued for years deprived the interest rate of its selection function, meaning that it could no longer be used to distinguish between profitable and unprofitable assets. That gave rise to the false assumption that resources are unlimited,” said Sinn. “Excessively low interest rates also lead to speculative bubbles that subsequently burst and can get banks into trouble. And when those bubbles burst the taxpayer usually has to come to the rescue,” he added. The same applies to the interest rate policy pursued by the European Central Bank. Details

  19. Ifo Economic Forecast for Eastern Germany and Saxony 2015/2016

    Domestic Forces Strengthen Eastern German Economy

    Dec 16, 2015: The real economic output of eastern Germany (including Berlin) will rise sharply by 1.6 percent this year and 1.8 percent in the year ahead, according to the Ifo Institute’s economic forecast for the eastern German Länder published today. “Domestic forces will continue to boost the upturn, especially private consumption,” explained Prof. Dr. Joachim Ragnitz, Deputy Director of the Dresden Branch of the Ifo Institute. “There will also be strong growth in public services over the forecasting period due to refugee migration,” he added. Details

  20. Ifo President Sinn Sceptical About Paris Climate Change Agreement

    Dec 13, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has voiced scepticism about the climate change agreement reached in Paris. "The agreement primarily features moral appeals and pays lip service to the idea of mitigating climate change by encouraging countries that are willing to further reduce their use of fossil fuels to do so. It does not, however, feature any instruments for obliging unwilling countries to participate", Sinn said on Monday in Munich. Details

  21. Ifo President Sinn Criticises Central Banks

    Dec 11, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised uncontrolled government bond purchases by national central banks. “This course of action is astounding. The situation needs to be cleared up immediately", said Sinn on Friday in Munich. "It is a scandal that money creation of 358 billion euros apparently took place and that ECB President Mario Draghi, by his own admission, was unaware of what these funds were going to be used for.” Details

  22. Ifo Institute Upwardly Revises Economic Forecast for 2016 to 1.9 Percent

    Dec 9, 2015: The Ifo Institute has upwardly revised its economic forecast for Germany for 2016 to 1.9 percent growth in economic output, versus the 1.8 percent figure expected by Ifo researchers in the summer. Timo Wollmershäuser’s team of business cycle experts expect economic output growth of 1.7 percent in 2017. “The upturn in the German economy is continuing,” said Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn. “Private consumption continues to drive the upturn, since the income outlook of private households remains good due to further improvements in the labour market. This effect is compounded by higher, credit-financed government spending on refugees, which is creating a temporary uptick in demand at the expense of future demand.” Sinn added. Details

  23. Hans-Werner Sinn Wins “Professor of the Year” Award

    Dec 8, 2015: Kempen: “An Economist, a Thought Leader and a Freethinker” Details

  24. Ifo Economist Woessmann Calls for Systematic Registration of Education Levels of Refugees

    Dec 4, 2015: Ifo economist Ludger Woessmann calls for a systematic registration of the education levels of refugees in Germany. “At the moment, we are groping around in the dark”, complained Woessmann, an expert in the economics of education, on Friday in Munich. “Nobody really knows what level of qualification the refugees have. But this is crucial for their potential integration in the labour market. Not even their language skills are being systematically assessed at present,” he added. Appropriate integration and education measures can only be introduced on the basis of clear data on refugees’ language skills and qualifications. Details

  25. Ifo President Sinn Criticises Expansion of ECB’s Bond Buying Programme

    Dec 3, 2015: Ifo President Hans-Werner Sinn has criticised the European Central Bank’s (ECB) expansion of its bond buying programme. Details

  26. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for November 2015

    German Companies Enjoy Increasingly Easy Access to Credit

    Nov 27, 2015: It is increasingly easy for German companies to access credit. Credit constraints for German trade and industry fell to 14.5 percent in November from 14.9 percent last month, marking a new historical low. In view of the European Central bank’s zero interest rate policy, credit constraints currently pose very few problems for the majority of German companies. Details

  27. German Companies Mainly See Refugees as Unskilled Workers

    Nov 26, 2015: German companies see the greatest employment potential for refugees as unskilled workers. These are the results of a survey by the Ifo Institute published on Thursday. “41 percent of firms see significant potential for refugees to be recruited in their own branch as unskilled workers. But 59 percent rate their chances as narrow”, says Gabriel Felbermayr, one of the study’s authors. 37 percent believe that there is a potential for recruiting refugees as trainees, as opposed to 63 percent that do not. 22 percent of firms can imagine recruiting refugees in their branch as skilled workers, versus 78 percent that cannot. Only three percent of companies see leadership potential in the refugees, versus 97 percent that does not. Details

  28. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2015

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern German Länder Rises Sharply

    Nov 26, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate for Eastern German trade and industry brightened clearly in November. The climate indicator rose markedly to 110.7 index points from 108.2 points last month. Eastern German survey participants were more satisfied with their current business situation this month. Moreover, optimism about future business developments grew significantly; with business expectations returning to a level last seen at the end of 2010. The terrible events in Paris and international turbulence have had no negative impact on the Eastern German economy to date. Details

  29. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2015

    German Firms Continue to Expand Staff Base

    Nov 26, 2015: German companies reported growing demand for new staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 109.9 points in November from 109.1 points last month, marking its fourth consecutive increase. Developments in employment continue to follow a clearly upward path. Details

  30. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for November 2015

    German Industry Expects Stronger Growth in Exports

    Nov 25, 2015: German manufacturers are more optimistic about the short-term future. The Ifo Export Expectations in November compensated for last month’s fall. The index returned to 7.5 balance points in November from 5.9 balance points in October. The weakness of the euro is contributing to these developments. Details

  31. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the November 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Rises Markedly

    Nov 24, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade rose considerably to 109.0 points in November from 108.2 points in October. Assessments of the current business situation improved. Optimism with a view to future business developments also continued to increase for the third consecutive month. The German economy remains unaffected by growing uncertainty worldwide. Not even the Paris attacks had a negative impact on survey data. Details

  32. Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2015 (12 November 2015)

    Ifo World Economic Climate Cools Down Markedly

    Nov 12, 2015: The Ifo Index for the world economy clouded over. After reaching 95.9 last quarter, the indicator is now clearly below its long-term average of 96.1 points at 89.6 points. Assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated only marginally, but expectations are far less positive than last quarter. The most urgent economic problems, according to experts, are insufficient demand and a lack of confidence in government policies. The world economy is seeing only moderate growth. Details

  33. Ifo Information on Refugees

    Nov 11, 2015: In response to enquiries, the Ifo Institute would like to specify that the figure of 21.1 billion euros that the German government will spend on refugees refers to persons arriving in 2015. Details

  34. Ifo Institute Increases Estimates of Refugee Costs to 21.1 Billion Euros for 2015 Alone

    Nov 10, 2015: The Ifo Institute has increased its estimates of German government expenditure on refugees. It now expects the costs to amount to 21.1 billion euros for 2015 alone, based on the assumption that 1.1 million people will flee to Germany by the end of the year. “That figure includes accommodation, food, creches, schools, German courses, training and administration,” said Gabriel Felbermayr of the Ifo Institute in Berlin on Tuesday. The Institute previously estimated the costs for the state at 10 billion euros for the first twelve months, just to cover accommodation and food for 800,000 people. Details

  35. Ifo Viewpoint No. 170: Do Not Perpetuate the Dutch Disease in Europe: Lessons from German Reunification for a European Fiscal Union

    Nov 9, 2015: Europe is debating further moves towards a transfer union, following the implicit and explicit transfers in the form of fiscal rescue programmes and monetary bail-out operations by the European Central Bank (ECB). French President François Hollande and his young Minister of Economy Emmanuel Macron are now proposing a fiscal union Details

  36. Munich Center for Economic Studies (CES) honours Economist Daron Acemoglu

    Nov 6, 2015: The Munich Center for Economic Studies (CES), has nominated Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), as this year’s "Distinguished CES Fellow". The award ceremony will take place at 6 p.m. on 17 November 2015 in the Great Hall of the University of Munich. Afterwards Acemoglu will give the first part of his "Munich Lectures in Economics 2015“ on “Political Economy of State Building“. Details

  37. Advance results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2015

    Ifo Economic Climate in the Euro Area Clouds Over Further

    Nov 5, 2015: The Ifo Index for the economic climate in the euro area declined by two index points in the fourth quarter. It dropped to 122.0 points, but still remains significantly above the long-term average. While assessments of the current economic situation brightened slightly, the six-month economic outlook continued to cloud over. The euro area economy continued its recovery at a subdued pace. Details

  38. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for October 2015

    Credit Constraints Edge Upwards

    Oct 29, 2015: German companies are finding it marginally more difficult to access bank credit this month. Credit constraints for German trade and industry rose to 14.9 percent in October from 14.8 percent last month. Credit constraints for German companies nevertheless remain easy to overcome. Financing conditions remain excellent. Details

  39. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2015

    Ifo Business Climate Index for Eastern Germany Declines

    Oct 28, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for eastern German industry and trade declined to 108.2 index points in October from 108.8 points last month. The decline was mainly due to less favourable assessments of business expectations by eastern German survey participants. Companies in eastern Germany are also no longer as satisfied with their current business as last month. Despite the difficult environment internationally, the eastern German economy remains relatively robust. Details

  40. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2015

    German Companies Continue to Recruit New Staff

    Oct 28, 2015: German companies are constantly looking for new staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 109.1 points in October from 108.6 points last month, reaching its highest level since January 2012. Labour market figures will thus continue to develop positively. Details

  41. Minimum Wage Handicaps Integration of Refugees into Labour Market

    Oct 27, 2015: The minimum wage will very probably be a barrier to the successful integration of refugees into the German labour market, according to the Ifo Institute. Based on figures from Turkish refugee camps and international test results, almost 50 percent of refugees from Syria do not even have a basic level of education, write Ifo researchers Gabriel Felbermayr and Michele Battisti in an article for the latest ifo Schnelldienst. Details

  42. Ifo Export Expectations - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for October 2015

    German Industry Sees Little Further Scope for Upturn in Exports

    Oct 27, 2015: The German economy does not seem to be able to shake off the world economy’s weak dynamic. The Ifo Export Expectations fell markedly from 7.5 to 5.8 balance points in October, dropping to their lowest level since September 2014. The export dynamic therefore continued to weaken. Details

  43. Ifo Business Climate Germany - Results of the October 2015 Ifo Business Survey

    Ifo Business Climate Index Declines Only Slightly

    Oct 26, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Index for German industry and trade fell to 108.2 points in October, from 108.5 points in September. Companies were slightly less satisfied with their current business situation than in September. Optimism with a view to future business developments nevertheless continued to grow. The German economy is proving remarkably resilient in view of this autumn’s multiple challenges. Details

  44. Economists Expect “Modest Upturn” in Germany

    Oct 8, 2015: German economists forecast growth of 1.8 percent in 2015 and in 2016 respectively, versus 1.6 percent in 2014. These are the results of the Joint Economic Forecast by the economics institutes released in Berlin on Thursday. “The German economy is experiencing a modest upturn, which is primarily driven by private consumption. The weak world economy is a constraining factor, especially the problems in a number of emerging economies“, explained Timo Wollmershäuser, Interim Director of the Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys. “The immigration of refugees is placing a significant short-term burden on the German economy. But it could also create opportunities if the right economic policy measures are implemented to successfully integrate immigrants,” he added. Details

  45. Eurozone: Growth Expected to Accelerate Gently

    Oct 6, 2015: Economic growth in the Eurozone is expected to accelerate gently in the last quarter of 2015. It will rise to 0.5 percent, after reaching levels of 0.4 percent in the second and third quarters of the year respectively, according to forecasts by the three economic research institutes Ifo (Munich), Insee (Paris) and Istat (Rome). They predict growth of 1.6 percent for 2015 compared to 2014. The cautious recovery is being driven by domestic demand; private consumption is expected to increase by 1.8 percent by the end of the year. Details

  46. Refugees Need Fast Access to Childcare Centers, Schools and Professional Training

    Oct 1, 2015: “Education is the key to integration,” explain representatives of the Leibniz Education Research Network Details

  47. Credit Constraint Indicator - From the Ifo Business Survey for September 2015

    Credit Constraints Drop to Historical Low

    Sep 29, 2015: German companies are currently enjoying easier access to credit than ever before. Credit constraints for German trade and industry plunged to a new historic low of 14.8 percent in September from 15.0 percent last month. Financing conditions remain excellent. There are practically no credit constraints for German companies at the moment. Details

  48. Results of the Ifo Business Survey for September 2015

    Ifo Business Climate for Eastern Germany Brightens Again

    Sep 28, 2015: The Ifo Business Climate Indicator for eastern German industry and trade rose sharply to 108.7 points in September from 107.8 index points in August. Eastern German survey participants once again assessed their current business situation as better than last month. Their six-month business outlook was also more favourable. The eastern German economy can look back on a strong third quarter 2015 in September. Details

  49. Ifo Employment Barometer - Results of the Ifo Business Survey for September 2015

    German Companies Continue to Recruit New Staff

    Sep 28, 2015: German companies still intend to recruit more staff. The Ifo Employment Barometer rose to 108.6 points in September from 108.4 last month. The number of employees will continue to rise as a result. The main driver of developments remains the service sector. Details

  50. Immigration Offsets Declining and Ageing Population in Germany

    Sep 28, 2015: Immigration slows down the declining and ageing of the population in Germany. Even without any additional immigration flows, the share of people with a migrant background in Germany would automatically have risen to around 24.4 percent by 2030 from 20.5 percent in 2013. With fresh immigration flows, this figure can be expected to rise to almost 30 percent in 2030. Details

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Press contact

Harald Schultz

Ifo Institute
Press, Publications, Conferences
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1218
Fax: +49(0)89/9224-1267
Email: schultz @ ifo.de
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