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Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 1st quarter 2017 (13 February 2017)

Ifo World Economic Climate Continues to Brighten

The Ifo World Economic climate continued to improve this quarter. The indicator rose to +2.6 balance points from -1.2 points previously. Experts’ assessments of the current economic situation were no longer quite as unfavourable as last quarter. Expectations also brightened somewhat, pointing to a moderate recovery in the world economy.

The Ifo economic climate primarily improved in advanced economies. The mood in Japan in particular brightened considerably. The economic climate also improved in Britain, although the majority of experts surveyed remains pessimistic. The economic climate for emerging markets and developing economies remained unfavourable. Sentiment in the Middle East and North Africa, Sub-Saharan Africa and CIS countries firmed, but remains weak. In Turkey, by contrast, the indicator plunged.

Average short and long-term interest rates worldwide are expected to rise over the next six months. In the USA, even all of the experts surveyed expect the short-term interest rates to rise. The US dollar will continue to strengthen over the next six months.

Clemens Fuest
President of the Ifo Institute

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World Economy (Balances)

Quarter/year I/15 II/15 III/15 IV/15 I/16 II/16 III/16 IV/16 I/17
Climate 5.6 8.8 2.4  -5.7 -7.5 -4.0 -7.1 -1.2  2.6 
Situation -5.5 -3.9 -15.5 -18.1 -14.7 -17.9  -17.2 -15.4  -9.1 
Expectations 17.3 22.3 22.0 7.6  -0.1 11.0  3.7 14.1  15.0 

Note

Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The January 2017 survey received responses from 1,147 experts in 118 countries. A detailed regional analysis appears in the quarterly journal: CESifo World Economic Survey. This press release contains advance information on the most important results.

Detailed Publication

  1. Garnitz, Johanna, Dorine Boumans and Martin Braml, "CESifo World Economic Survey February 2017 ", CESifo World Economic Survey 16 (1), 2017, 01-21 | Details | PDF Download

  1. Boumans, Dorine and Johanna Garnitz, "ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima hellt sich weiter auf – Ergebnisse des 135. World Economic Survey (WES) für das erste Quartal 2017", ifo Schnelldienst 70 (04), 2017, 31-38 | Details | PDF Download

Contact

Johanna Garnitz

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1227
Fax: +49(0)89/907795-1227
Email: garnitz @ ifo.de
Website


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