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Results of the Ifo World Economic Survey (WES) of 4th quarter 2014 (13 November 2014)

Ifo World Economic Climate Clouds Over Heavily

The Ifo Index for the world economy fell to 95.0 points from 105.0 points in the previous quarter, reaching its lowest level since the third quarter of 2013. It is now below its long-term average of 95.5 points. Assessments of the current economic situation deteriorated only slightly. Economic expectations, however, were strongly downwardly revised. The upswing in the world economy is suffering a setback.

The economic climate clouded over in all regions. Despite falling to 101.3 points, the Ifo Index for North America remains way above its 15 year average of 90.1 points. In Asia, by contrast, it remains only slightly above the long-term average at 93.9 points. Japan and China in particular are sending out weak curbing signals. In Europe and the CIS states there was a very marked decline in the economic climate. While the Ifo Index for Europe is only slightly below the average value, the CIS states together with Latin America are bringing up the rear: the economic climate in both regions is now as overclouded as it was five years ago.

Interest rates are essentially only forecast to rise in the USA over the next six months. On worldwide average, the US dollar is expected to appreciate.

Hans-Werner Sinn
President of the Ifo Institute

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World Economy (Index, 2005 = 100)

Quarter/year IV/12 I/13 II/13 III/13 IV/13 I/14 II/14 III/14 IV/14
Climate 82.4 94.1 96.8  94.1  98.6  103.2  102.3  105.0  95.0 
Situation 76.6 80.4 84.1  82.2  84.1  91.6  91.6  95.3  91.6 
Expectations 87.7 107.0 108.8  105.3  112.3  114.0  112.3  114.0  98.2 

Climate (2005=100)

Quarter/year IV/12 I/13 II/13 III/13 IV/13 I/14 II/14 III/14 IV/14
North America 80.3 86.2 87.0  93.7  88.7  102.1  107.1  110.5  101.3 
Europe 80.6 90.3 93.2  99.0  109.7  116.5  118.4  117.5  101.0 
Asia 81.6 97.4 106.1  89.5  98.2  97.4  89.5  99.1  93.9 

Note

Since 1981 the Ifo Institute has conducted a quarterly survey in numerous countries on business cycle developments and other economic factors in the experts’ home countries. The October 2014 survey received responses from 1,108 experts in 120 countries.

Detailed Publication

  1. Plenk, Johanna, Gernot Nerb, Klaus Wohlrabe and Erdal Yalcin, "CESifo World Economic Survey November 2014", CESifo World Economic Survey 13 (4), 2014, 1-28 | Details | PDF Download

  1. Nerb, Gernot and Johanna Plenk, "ifo Weltwirtschaftsklima stark eingetrübt: Ergebnisse des 126. World Economic Survey (WES) für das vierte Quartal 2014", ifo Schnelldienst 67 (22), 2014, 35-47 | Details | PDF Download

Contact

Johanna Garnitz

Ifo Institute
Ifo Center for Business Cycle Analysis and Surveys
Phone: +49(0)89/9224-1227
Fax: +49(0)89/907795-1227
Email: garnitz @ ifo.de
Website


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